The DATA being released today (CPI) and tomorrow (PPI) is inflation data and could possibly affect the Fed Mtg decision on a rate cut, so it may be a market mover today.
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YESTERDAY I MENTIONED CYCLE TIMING WHEN I SAID…
SPX – The markets can continue to push higher, they do have time. I wanted to point out that the last couple of daily cycles started to dip or chop around day 15 and fell into sort of a half cycle low at that point. They then made a new high in the same daily cycle and a milder dip after that. That happened in the first and 2nd daily cycle, so it may happen here in the 3rd.
And right now we do see a 2 day pullback that was expected with The SPX. I have been drawing an overhead trendline and we did reach that area by day 15. Tuesday was day 16 and if it keeps dropping, I have pointed out 2 common supports to keep an eye on.
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NASDAQ – It is possible that the markets could continue to pull back this week and then reverse higher next week for the Fed Decision too.
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THE SOXX, however, certainly makes it look like it wants to just sell off. If it does, I have to wonder if the other sectors will be dragged lower too. This is the 3rd daily cycle and could play out weaker as the timing gets later. As pointed out weeks ago – The SOXX has lower highs and lower lows (a downtrend has begun)
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WTIC – Oil is very choppy and is now on day 15 of the 2nd daily cycle. It remains choppy and is still down near the ICL price.
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THE USD reversed right at the 34 sma and this is possibly a dcl for the 2nd daily cycle. This actually lines up perfectly with our expectations for the USD to ‘peak’ in a 2nd or 3rd daily cycle near the Fed MTG, and for Gold to put in a low at the same time.
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Gold is moving up with the USD again, so this shows us that even if the USD did remain strong, it has now and likely will not keep Gold from running again. Gold has a day 7 peak, and I’d actually like to see that stay that way to remain L.T. and give us a sudden swift dip into a new low. So…
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Gold is under that day 7 high of $2721, and I’d like to see it stay that way and drop to a slightly new low. If price gets above that number, we may have to view this as an unorthodox ICL, because it would have been R.T. and that is the main reason that I have not viewed this as a final low. FYI: The last daily cycle with that bigger drop was 26 days long and peaked on day 16 (R.T.).
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SILVER looks like a new peak on day 16, making this R.T. following a L.T. Daily cycle with a very steep drop. This is an odd set up too, because the last daily cycle WAS L.T. peaking on day 10. The drop was deep enough to resemble an ICL, however that took place in the 3rd daily cycle. Right now EXK, AG, HL and others are not really following Silver, they are being rejected at the 50sma. Lets take a look…
Right now EXK, AG, HL and others are not really following Silver, they are being rejected at the 50sma.
HL is not really following Silver, it was rejected at the 50sma.
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SILVER does look like an ICL, so let’s pay CLOSE ATTENTION to the price action over the next day or 2. This may be an opportunity to buy Silver stocks, since they still seem to be very close to their recent lows. On this chart I mentioned checking spot for a reason…
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SILVER : I don’t like to go to spot when I usually use Stockcharts, but I did notice that SPOT would give this a different set up. The real low (dcl) comes in later, so this would only be day 9 and could form as a final L.T. daily cycle, possibly also explaining why the silver stocks are stalling?
THE GDX drop in Oct-November DID look like an ICL drop, and I’ve said that all along, but I still expected Miners to drop to a slight break of the 200sma if Gold sells off into an ICL near the Fed Mtg. THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN, and this is why:
1. There is no progress above the 50sma, however this is now R.T., so it DOES make the GDX look like an ICL is in place.
2. The first daily cycle may just linger under the 50sma, but we have a solid MACD cross too.
3. The GDX peaked on day 9 and dropped sharply into a day 26 low (L.T.). This may be the ICL for Miners, but it can still ‘test’ the lows if Gold dips lower.
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GDX & Some of the Miners like EXK were rejected at the 50sma, but this does look like a bull wedge, so it may only drop to the $4 area and you’d be buying it at the recent lows.
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We’re watching the inflation data at 8:30 a.m. ET, to see if the futures in any sector react. Yesterday I discussed several Energy stocks and the set ups still look good ( FCEL, BLDP, etc) and some like CHPT, BLNK, FCEL and so on pulled back or stalled, possibly allowing an entry soon if they reverse higher at support. Bitcoin is discussed below, enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN: Yesterday I discussed Cycle count using both the 30 day counts and the normal 60 day counts. It shows that 1 more drop is possible, but not necessary. Crypto Miners are dropping.
25 days + 22 days = only 47 days. So if I count it the way that I used to, and if I was looking for roughly a 60 day cycle low-to-low, we may be on day 61 today, and we COULD drop to a day 63 or 64 day low this week to around $90,000.
BITCOIN is choppy at these levels, and
1. The MACD is not turning upward and the RSI made a lower low, but
2. It is also having a hard time dropping to the $90,000 area, which is what I am hoping to see.
3. I’d love to see a new low below that day 47 area this week. If we get that and then a reversal higher, maybe the Crypto stocks will join in the move, but right now Bitcoin looks like it should drop, yet it looks like it has buying preventing it.
Tuesday December 10th 
Thursday December 12th – More Inflation?
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