Tuesday December 3rd
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THE SPX moved a little higher, again to new all-time highs. Using an overhead trend line, we see that the SPX could even push a little higher in this 3rd daily cycle.
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THE SOXX actually put in a pretty good day,
1. but it does remain under what should be strong resistance at the downtrend line, the 50 & 200sma.
2. As a failed daily cycle, it should not make it above that resistance and I was considering shorting it at the 50-200sma, but I probably will not be in front of the screens at that time if it happens this week.
3. If anyone shorts this, use a tight stop at the 50sma, because it could get choppy and the MACD looks to be slightly improving. Using cycle analysis, it already failed & therefore it should roll over into an ICL over time.
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WTIC – Oil does seem to have put in a dcl at the day 49 area, since that is the correct time for Oils dcl. It does remain choppy at the lows, however.
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XOP – Oil stocks regained their 200sma a couple of weeks ago, and they back tested it yesterday.
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GOLD That was a strong 6 day rally out of the dcl, but it then slashed right back under the 50 on day 7 (the peak at this point). We have seen a small choppy price action under the 50sma since then and at day 13 today, I do not think that Gold will get back above that 50sma. We are L.T. and due for a drop into an ICL, possibly around the time of the next Fed Mtg.
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SILVER did not do what Gold did when it launched out of the dcl. Silver has not even been able to get above the 20 ema. It may chop up to the 50sma (roughly $31.19), but I expect it to also be capped there and drop into the fed mtg.
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GDX – The Miners are also trapped under the 20 ema and did not follow Gold higher on that 6 day rally out of the lows.
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AAPL NOV 29: Last week I noticed that Apple was forming a bullish wedge on a weekly chart. AAPL is one of those ‘buy & hold’ candidates, because even though it gets rather choppy, it adds up over time, so this was a buy area and it did break out yesterday.
ENVX: I saw where Mark M posted ENVX yesterday and I wanted to point out that I agree with the bullish idea. Yes, it was recently cut in half, but…
1. That looks very similar to a major sell off into an ICL. It actually filled the gap from the last time that it was down here in May, and
2. In May it started a run from $6 to almost $19. It rode the blue 20 ema in May & June, and it is above that now too, attempting to regain the 50sma.
3. So overall this looks like an ICL drop and a first daily cycle base. It has now formed a triangle. It is trying to break a downtrend, the 50sma, and the MACD and RSI look good. I agree that ENVX has good potential as a buy and hold with a stop.
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Ed mentioned a couple of stocks that move BIG, so the pull backs may be hard to endure, but those stocks were acting correctly and they were SMR, NNE, LTBR. As a reminder, We were also watching LAC, PLL, GFAI, FCEL, and watching for pull backs on AI stocks AI, BBAI, SOUN. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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IN THE WEEKEND REPORT: I DISCUSSED CYCLE COUNTS…
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BITCOIN – When we look at the cycle counts, you can see that they used to average around 30 & 60 days, but we had an early day 25 low. Now we have a day 22 low in place and it makes me wonder if we have 1 more quick dip ahead and then we run higher?
I also looked at the last 3 lows and the MACD had curled up immediately and even crossed by day 3 or 4. We would now be on day 5 and the macd is still dropping lower, so that does make me wonder if we have one more quick dip or not. We will know soon enough; this should resolve this week.
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BITCOIN – So the 7 a.m. live update shows a small dip since the weekend report, but so far it has only reached the 20 ema and we still have a day 22 low. THAT MIGHT BE ALL WE GET. If this takes off higher, that early day 22 low may again be the sign of a strong bull market cutting the selling short (like we saw with the day 25 low). Yesterday I see that crypto stocks dropped. The only thing that doesn’t make sense to me about this count is the lack of 60 day periods…
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The only thing that doesn’t make sense to me about this count is the lack of 60 day periods, but to justify that, we might add up the 34 day with the 25 day and get 59 days. Now we could see this 22 day dip get added to a 36 day run and become 58 days. THAT would work out, since I used to count in 30 & 60 day sequences.
