Tuesday December 31st
Today is the last trading day of the year for 2024 and we are getting late in the 3rd daily cycle. So this was Fridays close that I had in the weekend report and I discussed the bearish rising wedge. Take notice of something else here too, the 50sma…
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THE SPX rising bearish wedge has already been back tested, so we can drop. EDIT: Notice that price bounced off of the 50sma on Friday. That 50sma was at $5940, the low for Fridays trading…
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The SPX closed below that $5940, so even though I don’t have the 50sma on this chart, we know that price now closed below the 50sma (the low of Fridays candle). A bounce on the last day of trading is possible, but this is starting to show what we have been expecting—a sell down is coming. Reminder: A dcl can come on day 32 or a dcl can come on day 42, but this is NOT oversold.
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THE SOXX also dropped on Monday and gave us a doji of indecision. We have 1 more day left to trade in 2024. Will it bounce on Tuesday or has the selloff already started? It could go either way, but I do expect selling in early 2025. I honestly feel that a bounce on Tuesday could be shorted at the 50 sma (blue line) or the purple line.
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WTIC – Oil popped and dropped. It can run as high as the purple line and still be a L.T. daily cycle.
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WTIC WEEKLY – We are getting to the apex of the triangle, but we still have room to move higher or lower. As mentioned in the weekend report, Oil is actually getting late in the intermediate cycle, so I have to expect a break lower in time.
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GOLD dropped but it still hasn’t broken the low that appears to be the ICL. Now if the day 24 low breaks, then we have an extended first daily cycle. This drop is not a surprise, I discussed it in the weekend report…
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That drop on Monday is not a surprise, I discussed it in the weekend report with this chart. Notice that day 24 was NOT confirmed as a dcl with a move above the 10sma yet. I said…
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GOLD – The day 24 dcl would NOT be the dcl if Gold can’t break through that resistance to confirm it. The swing at day 24 has not been confirmed. Gold could then sell off below day 24 to find a slightly deeper low as the dcl near day 32. I would not expect the ICL to be broken though, so the triangle could expand a bit, as shown here, with a slightly deeper dcl around day 32 or 33.
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SILVER – We have the same thing happening with Silver. The day 24 low was not confirmed with a price break of the 10sma (or 8 ema), so a lower low could give us the dcl.
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THE GDX dropped to a new low and put in a small reversal candle. This could drop lower if Gold does, but so far we do have MACD divergence here, it is oversold.
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So basically, we are expecting the general markets to sell off in early 2025 to eventually bring us into an ICL. The last ICL was in August. This should give us an excellent opportunity to buy good stocks at a discount! Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin have already become choppy and have dropped enough to put in a low soon. I think that 2025 has the potential to be a really good year, but of course we’ll have to see if any ‘unknowns’ develop along the way in the world around us that can affect the markets for better or for worse. As a sidenote: If you are planning on going out to a friends house or a bigger gathering tonight to celebrate the incoming new year, please be safe, especially when driving. It is not always just our efforts to be safe, but someone else on the road or partying could affect things too. I’ll have Bitcoin below, Enjoy the last day of trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN was on day 52 Friday and a drop into the day 60 area would lead into next week (Bitcoin trades 7 days a week, so day 60 would be next Friday on January 3rd, but the low does not have to be EXACTLY on day 60). Lets take a closer look.
Day 60 for BITCOIN would fall Friday, but we also know that a low can come a little before or after that day.
Right now we have a new low on day 56 that did cut below the day 46 low and now Bitcoin has turned green and is rising backup. That means that we could have the low at day 56, or today is day 57 and we chop a bit more. We should be pretty close to that next dcl and so far, it was a mild dip off of the day 43 highs. Let’s zoom in…
BITCOIN was actually holding up along the 50sma nd tagged it 3 or 4 times as support until it broke through yesterday. Now it has recovered, so that could be a mini-shake out, but I actually don’t think that many people had ‘stops’ there, based on the way that Bitcoin moves. One more view…
BITCOIN has formed a bullish descending wedge and really it does look like we’d be at the end of the apex, so breaking above that downtrend line should be a bullish development. We really should be close to putting in the next low, if we aren’t there already.
