Tuesday December 17th: Pre Fed-Activity
I want to release the report before 8 a.m., so I haven’t had a chance to proofread it yet. I will do that now & fix errors.
.
THE SPX is chopping sideways, but as mentioned in the weekend report, The General Markets still have time to move higher as we head into the Fed Mtg and the upcoming holidays and year end. This was day 20 of possibly 35 days or so.
.
THE NASDAQ is actually riding the 9 sma now, and that is bullish price action.
.
TSEM – I noticed a few semiconductor companies surge yesterday, like Tower Semiconductor and…
.
Micron Tech (MU) was chopping sideways and suddenly broke out higher too. The reason that I bring this up is because…
.
I was planning on trying to short the SOXX, but I also expected the 50 & 200sma to continue hold price back. Suddenly we have some strength showing up in the semiconductors and that MACD really looks bullish. This will need to be monitored post Fed and into the year end. We may just see this end up being a pop and drop, but if it starts to run, that would be quite the bullish surprise.
.
THE USD has been strong, but that may change after the Fed mtg. It is noteworthy that the strength of the USD has not hindered Golds strength.
.
GOLD is on day 21 and lately in the Bull Run, Gold has been able to put in a dcl around day 24 or so, so Gold MIGHT bottom after the fed decision. This is right translated and hinting that an ICL may be in place.
.
SILVER was showing some strength until last weeks large drop. We’ll probably have to wait and see what happens with Silver after the Fed Mtg too.
.
GDX bounced off of the 200sma after a steep drop. It then chopped around and tagged the 50sma last week, where it was rejected. That tag of the 50sma, however, makes it a R.T. daily cycle and that doesn’t usually happen after a L.T. Deep drop, unless that drop was an ICL. The Miners may have their lows in place at the 200sma reversal in November. The good news is that we haven’t missed a strong upside rally, we are right back at the lows.
.
At the end of this report I want to point out a couple of trades and trade ideas, and that will be below the Bitcoin discussion. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
.
~ALEX
.
We discussed the big picture with Bitcoin as having a target around $120,000.
.
BITCOIN broke from the Cup and I do have an upside target of $120,000, but it doesn’t have to get there all in one run. It COULD do that, but it may be after a smaller choppy period plays out.
.
BITCOIN is on day 43 (of a possible 60ish), so it has been climbing higher and it may continue to run higher too, now that it is above that consolidation. It does not have to run straight up to $120,000, but you can see that it is not that far away on this chart. The Crypto stocks DID respond to this run over the past few days, but they are at times still a bit choppy and often don’t close at the highs.
.
The Crypto stocks DID respond to this run over the past few days, but they are at times still a bit choppy and often don’t close at the highs. Let me show you a few different crypto stocks that have different results.
.
CIFR was up 20% and closed near the highs. It has been very choppy, but we may start to see some progress if it can continue higher and hold those gains.
.
WULF also ran up 17% and closed near the highs, so it was able to hold the gains. You can also see that it is very choppy lately, but if it holds the highs and continues higher, we’ll be looking at a breakout.
.
HUT gave us a pop and drop. That is somewhat sad news with hut. Why? Well, HUT was up over 15% and only closed up 6%. That CAN change over time, but right now that is disappointing with Bitcoin at the all-time highs. OVERALL, THOUGH? Hut ran from $10 to $30 so far, for those holding a basket.
.
IREN also popped and dropped. It has been a very choppy run, but it has doubled since October for those holding a basket.
.
RIOT, MARA, CLSK, and several others are choppy and making slow progress, but they have improved and may play catch up over time. RIOT gained 8% yesterday.
.
I want to point out a couple of trades and trade ideas, but I also want to mention that extreme caution should be used in some of these trades. They move in a very large way in both directions and inexperienced (even experienced) traders could get hurt, but it is worth showing the set ups here after yesterdays performance.
.
IONQ & AAOI are a couple of stocks that I mentioned a while ago as very bullish, but I said that I would put it on a watchlist and look for a ‘Buy the dip’ opportunity.
.
IONQ gave us a dip to the 20 ema area and it did reverse last week, so that was a buy opportunity. It actually gapped lower on Monday and then went green ( a perfect buy area) and ran up almost 20%. This run can continue. So…
.
AAOI also pulled back from the $45 highs and might set up for another run too. It actually lost the 20ema, but regained it, so I was watching it yesterday (grabbed this midday) and it closed at $35 sitting right on the 20ema. This is a buy OR wait for the run to start and buy then. Watchlist.
.
ED pointed out a number of ‘Quantum’ stocks in the commenting area that were explosive and I started to trade them and mention them too. The idea was that When these pull back, the opportunity could be great, so yesterday I noticed them reversing and moving higher and posted a couple. Let me show you the results (AGAIN, THESE MOVE SHARPLY AND CAN CHOP UP AN ACCT IF WE ARENT CAREFUL).
.
QBTS dropped to the 10sma area last week (huge drop) and reversed, so Friday was a buy, but I also see that these can run for 2,3, even 4 days off of the 10sma on each burst higher, so yesterday was a buy too…
.
QBTS was up 42% midday
.
QBTS was up 53% by the final hour, and as this was running up, it did not have choppy drops or dips to shake traders out. Most ran nice and steady like that …
Intraday, the Crypto stocks will drive you crazy with the constant chop and drop, but as you can see here, QBTS did not have choppy drops or dips to shake traders out. It held the blue 20 ema on a 5 minute chart! That makes for an easy buy & hold. Most ran nice and steady like that .
.
QUBT was another quantum runner that started off Friday reversing at the 20 ema. Monday it started to lift off, so I posted this (because these can really stretch out).
.
QBTS was up 71% Midday. WOW!
.
WHY MENTION THAT AFTER THE RUN? Well,
1. Watch for the next pull back to the 20ema and be ready if you see a reversal, but also QSI did not run yesterday. It just reached the 20ema, so it may reverse here.
2. Are there laggers?
.
QSI tagged the 20ema and bounced. Is it worth taking a small position and see if it runs? The last time it landed on that 20ema, it bounced there for a few days, but then ripped from about $1.05 to $2.60.
.
ARQQ dropped to the 13 sma and then it became really choppy. It was up 11% yesterday, but it didnt run 30% like the others, so I am thinking that this may get some continuation today. That said…
Again, you have to be really careful with these because as you can see from that chop, you could buy this right here at $26.50 and it could drop to the 13 sma at $23.50. A $3 drop /share can add up, so please only trade proper position size and with stocks that move like this you’ll need experience and the use of intraday charts in my opinion (unless you are just going in as a buy and hold for a year to see where these are next Dec 2025).
.
We also saw many AI stocks running strong. BBAI pulled back & reversed at the 20 ema, so this could run again too. Take a look at ‘SOUN’ for example.
.
We also saw many ‘AI’ stocks running strong, including one called ‘AI’. It almost doubled from November to December and then it dropped to the 20ema after earnings release. I continued to like this set up, and it really works well for the longer term investor too. An AI stock should do well as a buy and hold long-term.
