December 1st Weekend report

Wow, December already!

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SPX – Using a daily count we see that the SPX peaked on day 9 so far and that is at all-time highs in this 3rd daily cycle. If it continues to climb or even chop higher, it will have a good chance of becoming a R.T. Daily cycle and we could see that ‘Santa Clause Rally’ that comes at the end of a year.   In the back of my mind I have had concerns with the SOXX failing, but at this point we just keep trading and raising stops and take what the bull markets will give us.

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So on this WEEKLY SPX chart I have drawn a line at the end of 2024, and with a possible 40 day- daily cycle, you can see how this COULD climb higher with a ‘Santa rally’ into the end of 2024. We’ll see.

 

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THE NASDAQ WEEKLY chart has improved a little since the US election results. We saw a breakout to new highs, a back test at the 10 week ma, and then a slow continuation higher.

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THE SOXX

1. The Soxx had that failed daily cycle, and even after the US Election results, it is struggling and dropping lower since October.  In fact, it closed the week down and I still clearly see a H&S pattern.

2. Since this started selling down in the 2nd and now the 3rd daily cycle, I would have to imagine that the rest of the 3rd and especially the 4th daily cycle will see this sell off further.

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WTIC WEEKLY – I have discussed that with Oil, it must be in a bottoming process, since the Oil stocks ( and XLE, XOP) are not near their lows and they are in more of an obvious bullish set up. So Oil itself remains choppy at the lows and closed down 4% last week.

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THE XOP dropped too, but it has broken out from a downtrend and may drop down to back test it and the 30 week ma.

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GOLD sold off and bounced back toward the end of the week. Since it is in a 5th daily cycle, we would expect weakness and possibly for it to bottom into an ICL in December.  The fomc Mtg is on Dec 18th and therefore I would imagine that Gold could drop to the 30 week ma area, since that is what normal bull runs often do.

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SILVER has been choppy and it has also been bouncing off of the 30 week ma since August. This shows you 3 daily cycles higher out of the August lows, a peak in October, and now we are selling down with some choppy trading until a low is put in place.

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SILVER – We usually see an A-B-C drop with an ICL, so I added the 50 week ma and drew in a possible slam down low to the 50 week ma as an ICL.  This is just a guess or an idea that would fit the bullish set up and possibly even sync up Gold and Silver at the fed Mtg.

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THE GDX sell off was a sharp 4 week drop from October into November. It can bounce and then also drop 1 more time into the fed mtg in December, to hopefully give us out final lows. That drop may only be a slight undercut of the recent sell off lows.

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GDX – To help you to visualize that slight undercut low, I decided to ‘copy / paste’ that bounce and drop to new ICL lows in Oct 2023.

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The bulls are still running, but we do have a pullback into an ICL due for the Precious Metals and it does seem to be in the process of playing out here in December. That should be a great buying opportunity or  place to ‘add’ if you are holding a basket and want to enlarge it at the lows. Bitcoin is running strong and the crypto stocks DID snap back into action last week, so I will discuss Bitcoin below.

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A little story:

 I just want to thank you all for the kind words and well wishes with the passing of my Father. He was retired and in his 80’s, so he lived a good life, but loved to stay busy, so he had an egg delivery route to family and friends. 3 times a week he would go to my aunts house (she is on a farm and has 120 chickens) and he would gather dozens of eggs to deliver on his own little egg route in his hometown, like a paper route. A logging truck hit his truck last week while he was on that route, and it was just too much for him to endure. As they say: Always hug your loved ones, you just never know what tomorrow will bring. Thank you again for all the kind words! My sister and I may be spending alternating mornings at my mothers this week, so I may be absent from the commenting section at times, but please feel free to carry on the discussions about charts, sectors, bullish looking stock set ups, maybe even some Miners that look to be holding up well and resisting the selling, etc, etc. and I’ll be around here and there too.  Thanks again and have a great Sunday!

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~ALEX

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In Fridays Report:

BITCOIN – Wednesday stretched higher, Thursday paused, and today it is trying to move higher.  Crypto stocks shot up on Wednesday, so we MIGHT have a day 22 dcl (which is unusually short, but in a Bull market, they can shorten as buyers are always ready to buy the dips).

 

In Fridays Report:

BITCOIN – When we look at the cycle counts, you can see that they used to average around 30 & 60 days, but we had an early day 25 low. Now we have a day 22 low in place and it makes me wonder if we have 1 more quick dip ahead and then we run higher?

  I also looked at the last 3 lows and the MACD had curled up immediately and even crossed by day 3 or 4. We would now be on day 5 and the macd is still dropping lower, so that does make me wonder if we have one more quick dip or not. We will know soon enough; this should resolve this week.