Wednesday November 27
DATA: I just wanted to show you that due to the holiday on Thursday and Friday in the US, all of the data comes out today. Fasten your seatbelts! 🙂
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THE SPX appears to have a dcl in place at the green arrows, so we are on the 3rd daily cycle and making all-time highs. On Tuesday and the NASDAQ & SPX WERE GREEN, but…
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On Tuesday and the NASDAQ & SPX WERE GREEN, but THE SOXX could not move above the 20 ema and it dropped 1.3%. I have been discussing this as a warning for us as time presses on, so we’ll see how things play out.
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I have been discussing this as a warning for us as time presses on, so we’ll see how things play out. Normally with a bull market as strong as the one we’ve seen is running, I would expect what is known as a ‘Santa clause rally’, where the markets can run higher into the end of the year. The timing here of a 3rd daily cycle and the SOXX failing may be hinting at a sell off in December instead? So again, we’ll see how this plays out, but use stops and be prepared for anything. We are in the 3rd daily cycle.
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WTIC – Oil is still choppy.
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I put this in Yesterdays report:
THE USD broke above resistance and dropped back into it so far. It is noteworthy that The USD has not really had a major effect on Gold and Silver lately.
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THE USD has started to become choppier up at this resistance area around $107-$108. Over time it will also become due for a dip into the next daily cycle and that MIGHT pop Gold, but Gold has been relatively unaffected by the USDs strong rally.
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Yesterday I discussed how GOLD was rallying out of the lows and how it was odd to see that strength, since it was due to form a 5th daily cycle lower into an ICL. That rally looked strong, but on Monday Gold crashed down over $100+. That crash looks bad on day 7, but I mentioned that from here it may just become choppy.
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GOLD had that sharp slam down day on Monday and I mentioned that it is possible that we now see some sideways chop. I just wanted to show you this because we are only on day 9 today, but that sharp drop doesn’t mean that we’ll just plunge for the next 15 days or so. We could even bounce/rally up to the green 50sma again.
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SILVER was weaker and choppy now too, with a dcl at the magenta line.
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FROM YESTERDAY:
SILVER dropped over 3.5% too. We are expecting a weak choppy daily cycle here, so the choice is whether or not you want to ride it out or step off and get back in later. Silver may not be able to get back above the 50sma until after an ICL is in place.
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GDX bounced out of the deep selloff low, putting in a dcl last week. It gapped down to the 10sma this week, but it needs more time and even though this looks like an ICL sell off, it should follow Gold and Silver as they put in Thier ICL low in a couple of weeks, so the GDX may just become very choppy for now, but a good buying opportunity may develop in a couple of weeks.
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In the US trading may or may not become lighter today as the day moves on. Many traders travel on the Thanksgiving holiday and they leave on Wednesday. Often that makes the markets rise up with less sellers, so we’ll see how things play out with all of that data being released today. Then we have closed markets in the US on Thursday and a half day of trading on Friday. Enjoy your Wednesday trading.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN: The count for Bitcoin was only 25 days long on the last cycle. We are now seeing a day 22 low, but it is possible that we bounce on day 23 (today) and then fall 1 more time to tag that 20 ema. In other words, this looks like a low, but it may drop one more time, since these cycle counts can run anywhere around 30 days or so.
