Wednesday November 6th – Big Moves
The election results in the U.S. were like the Elephant in the room. When it was announced that Donald Trump was winning last night, some of the futures really took off. General Markets futures are up, Gold and Silver sold off, the USD Rocketed higher and Bitcoin broke out to new all-time highs. This report will show the markets as of the close and also some of what we see with the futures…
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SPX – This is a bullish looking chart so far, as it regained the 20 ema after reversing at the 50sma. As a reminder, we do still have that bearish rising wedge in play, so we’ll see if this acts as a back-test or a recovery move.
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THE SOXX is a failed daily cycle and is trying to bounce back. Ahead we have the Election Results, The Fed Mtg, and the Jobless Claims report. So far, the futures are higher with the Elections.
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Look at what happened to The USD in after hrs! I guess we got our dcl on day 24. News has been showing that Donald Trump had a large lead in electoral votes and the USD & BITCOIN rocketed higher. Gold did NOT drop the same way that the USD shot up, but it did drop.
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GOLD peaked on day 14 and since this is the 4th daily cycle, we need to realize that it would be VERY HARD for Gold to make a new peak from here. This should be L.T. and starting a descent into the next major low, but it doesn’t have to be a sharp drop. The last dips lower were sideways and choppy.
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In yesterdays report I showed how it looks like SILVER has short daily cycles out of the ICL. So I had a day 20 dcl and then a day 22 dcl putting us on the 3rd daily cycle at day 19. The stochastics isn’t quite oversold, so I said that we may need more time.
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SILVER broke down overnight (so far, as I write the report at 11 p.m. with Trump in the lead). The daily cycles have been shorter, so it can form a swing low at any time. Monday was day 20 and Tuesday is day 21.
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POST ELECTION SILVER : We have a sharper drop , but also a reversal type candle in place as of 6 a.m. ET, but Gold, Silver, and the GDX are down in premarket so far.
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Yesterday I mentioned for GDX – One interesting thing that I noticed was that the slope seemed to be starting to increase, and that might mean that after we get our next ICL, Miners may run at a steeper rate rather than being as sideways and choppy as they have been lately. That also MIGHT mean that we get a steeper parabolic blow off top in Gold on the next intermediate cycle. We’ll have to wait and see, but I’ll be keeping an eye on that.
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GDX : GDX was down premarket at $39.20 at one point, which is down almost $1. Read the chart.
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The U.S. Announced the election results overnight (or rather, in the early morning hours), and the markets took off in various directions. Now we can allow things to play out or settle down during Wednesdays trading and we’ll see where we are heading into the Jobless claims and Fed Decision on Thursday. Bitcoin was a rocket last night, so the Crypto stocks might gap & run…or they could gap open and drop over the rest of the day, there is no way to know for sure. One thing is for certain though: Bitcoin has now has a new All-Time high. I’ll discuss more below. Today could be very active, enjoy your Wednesday trading.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – I saw Bitcoin shooting straight up toward $75,000 after 9 p.m., so I wanted to capture it for the reports.
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BITCOIN – At 10:45 p.m. it broke out well above the prior all-time highs. I had heard that if Trump won the Elections, he was more crypto-friendly, and Bitcoin could respond bullishly. At this point in the night, he was winning electoral votes, and I think that is why Bitcoin just broke out to new all-time highs.
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YESTERDAYS REPORT SHOWED 30 day period cycle counts
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BITCOIN – I took a count simply using the 30 day cycle method, and noticed that
1. After that slam down Capitulation low, we had a 32 day low,
2. That was followed by a 34 day low,
3. Which is now being followed by a day 25 day low? No, I think that we have a low ahead for Bitcoin and that stochastics may reach oversold and the 50sma or the lower channel may get tagged.
4. Bitcoin may bottom after the time of the Fed Mtg, in my opinion. Friday is day 29 using this count.
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BITCOIN – Do we have a circumstantial early low? Well, I actually you should recall that I don’t use 30 days for each dcl, I use 60 days for a dcl to dcl measure and 30 for a half cycle low, so day 25 may be a half cycle low and this could continue higher. So…
Do you remember that I pointed out the 2 different counts in a recent report? I also said that with either count, a low would be due this week for Bitcoin. Let’s review that quickly…
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I started Counting from the slam down capitulation low as an ICL: So from that deepest low forward we’d have a day 32 half cycle low and then add the next 34 day period to get a day 66 low dcl where it says 34. We would now only be on day 27.
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Again, you may recall that I said “No matter which way we count it from, we’ll be due for a low this week”. So next, Counting using the original count that would have us ignore the deepest low as an ICL:
We would have been on day 59 at the recent low. The election seems to have been a catalyst for Bitcoins low near day 60. Now we’ll see if Bitcoin holds up and does not cross under that day 59 low again.
Many Crypto stocks like CIFR, WULF, HUT, etc did a large Pop & Drop, likely due to the uncertainty. Now, even if they gap open on Wednesday, the gap is not the kind that needs to be filled. We could see gap & go moves.
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This was WULF near the end of the day. It closed at $6.21, so we saw a pop & drop here too, but if Bitcoin can hold those gains overnight into the open, we may see these gap open and run.
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RIOT, MARA, CLSK, and a few of the other ‘aggers’ actually closed closer to their highs, so they popped and held their gains. These could be starting a run if Bitcoin continues higher.
