Friday November 29
Hello Friends –
Today is a short 1/2 day of trading in the U.S.
I was not be able to put together a ‘normal’ report for Friday. My father was in a bad car accident last week and though they thought that he might recover, he passed away Yesterday. Since I had already started to gather several charts on Wednesday evening with some trade ideas, I threw a little something together for today, but it won’t be a normal report. I will be with family today. Thanks for understanding.
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THE SPX seems to have put a dcl in place at the green arrows, so we started a 3rd daily cycle and are back up at all-time highs. The SPX has been bullish. Sidenote: The SOXX is making new lows.
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NVDA has been a very strong leader, so I took a look at what it has been doing after releasing earnings 6 days ago, and it appears to be getting a little weak. The MACD seems weak, so with the recent Soxx failed daily cycle, I am keeping an eye on the leaders as the markets bounce higher.
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MSFT with the markets at the highs, both MSFT and GOOG are chopping sideways and buyers are not pushing them higher. Is this a warning sign or just a consolidation? It’s hard to say, because this chart is not ugly, it looks good at this point, but watch the price as it gains and loses both the 50 & 200sma. A sell off here may be a warning sign that Big Money is heading toward the exits.
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GOLD is on day 11 and it is at the 50sma. That could be all we see for a bounce here, since this should be a L.T. 5th daily cycle.
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I had mentioned that the GDX looks like an ICL drop, so you could buy the reversal at the 200sma with a stop, but this honestly should not be an ICL.
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GDX is bouncing off of the 200sma and found a little resistance at the 20 ema. I thought that it might bounce to the 50sma and lower trend line on that channel, but if Gold starts to sell off again, GDX will be likely to follow. IS IT POSSIBLE that this drop was a drop into an ICL? It doesn’t fit the normal criteria, but it is possible that the lows will form in this area and then the 200sma is only slightly broken for the final drop. We’ll see.
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TRADE IDEAS: Charts that I gathered Wednesday night
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GFAI – I had mentioned GFAI as a trade or a buy & hold s it broke above the 50sma. It now back tested that breakout on Wednesday and reversed higher again, so this remains a valid trade so far.
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LAC is still a valid trade, but it is having a hard time finding follow through buyers. We saw a pop & drop on Wednesday.
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FCEL was also mentioned as a trade down near $6 and it has done well. It is a clean energy play that went through a reverse split, so at times that increases the upside possibility Unfortunately, we saw a pop & drop on Wednesday with FCEL too.
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SMR – This has BIG up days, but it also can have big down days. At this point, it is a bullish run higher and it reversed higher Wednesday. We’ll see if it can gain some upside follow through.
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UNFI – I have been watching UNFI for weeks, but never took the trade. It is acting bullishly and I should have bought that wedge breakout, but ever since then we have not had a pull back. You can put this on your watchlist and buy on a good dip, if we see one.
( I’ve followed UNFI, IONQ, EXFY, AAOI, AGFY, etc too—really nice charts but hard to find a good entry/pullback.).
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This is what I am talking about: I’ve followed UNFI, IONQ, EXFY, AAOI, AGFY, etc too—really nice charts but hard to find a good entry/pullback. You would have had to buy the flag to the 8 ema, so is this a buy right here at the 8 ema again? It could be, but a run straight up from $15 to $40 in November alone makes it tricky for me.
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ON WEDNESDAY I SAID:
BITCOIN: The count for Bitcoin was only 25 days long on the last cycle. We are now seeing a day 22 low, but it is possible that we bounce on day 23 (today) and then fall 1 more time to tag that 20 ema. In other words, this looks like a low, but it may drop one more time, since these cycle counts can run anywhere around 30 days or so.
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BITCOIN – Wednesday stretched higher, Thursday paused, and today it is trying to move higher. Crypto stocks shot up on Wednesday, so we MIGHT have a day 22 dcl (which is unusually short, but in a Bull market, they can shorten as buyers are always ready to buy the dips).
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I just have to point this out because of the cycle count only giving us a day 22 low so far. That may be the dcl, or…
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BITCOIN – It is also possible that we will get a final dip into a day 30 low, as drawn here. Not a big crash, but more of a double bottom similar to what we saw in October. See the chart. The crypto basket will be choppy, but it should give us good up days like Wednesday to make up for it.
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Crypto Stocks have been choppy and sideways, but many, like HUT, IREN, MARA, BTBT, etc were up Big on Wednesday.
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RIOT was ‘only’ up 11% on Wednesday, so these could have plenty of upside as Bitcoin starts the next leg up.
