Wednesday October 30th – Still Running
Just a friendly reminder: The FED MTG with rate cut decision & speech is next Thursday.
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The General Markets moved higher, and The NASDAQ finally made it up to new all-time highs. GOOG released earnings and looked good in after hrs trading , so that may help the NASDAQ to continue higher.
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THE SOXX looked good too, and I had been hoping to ride this to new all-time highs. It may still get there, but sadly AMD released earnings and dropped 8% in after hrs, so I’ll be watching to see what happens with the SOXX on Wednesday.
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WTIC – Oil sold off a little more on Tuesday and is back near recent lows. As mentioned in the Tuesday report, we are deeper in the daily cycle at day 35 of maybe 40-50 days. With that, we can expect more selling over time, since Oils daily cycles can be 40-50 days long.
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THE USD may finally be getting tired and should be ready to dip lower into a dcl soon. The MACD is curling sideways a little too.
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GOLD is still pushing higher. “NEVER short a bull market, because surprises are to the upside”.
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Gold is at new all-time highs again, but many Miners (& GDX) are not. I actually want Gold to Drop into an ICL for that reason.
1. Gold could do a blow off top to $3000 with Miners lagging, or
2. Gold could roll over and drop into an ICL with Miners pulling back too. With Miners lagging lately, we really want a dip into an ICL rather than a blow off top. If Gold dropped down from here, it would offer a nice ‘Buy Opportunity’ at the ICL for Miners.
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About a week ago using this chart I mentioned that a back-test for SILVER could be a tag of the 10sma area.
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We now actually have that back-test for SILVER and a reversal came in at the 10sma.
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GDX – The GDX curled upward, and we often see that at this ‘time’. That looks like a day 13 half cycle low to me. We also have a day 9 peak so far. Gold is at all-time highs, but the GDX is not, so I’m thinking that this may play out as a bounce, only getting to the upper trendline again. You can buy with a stop under the half cycle low.
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The General Markets look pretty good after Tuesdays trading. The USD is still rising, but Gold is at all-time highs. Miners are a little mixed. We all saw NEM crash after earnings and NGD has earnings today, so we’ll see how that goes.
Some Miners are very choppy each month, but ‘Buy & Hold’ is still working for many. Several Miners are up at their 2024 highs, like EGO, KGC, IAG, OR, AU, AEM, while others are not (NG, BTG, etc). Even EXK and MAG are near their highs, while a few other Silver stocks are now, but neither is Silver itself. I do like the Silver stocks set up. Let me just post some charts of Miners, and you’ll see how it is mixed with strength and choppiness, but buy & hold would have worked in this bull run.
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EGO has been quite choppy, but ‘buy & hold’ would have worked as it runs to new highs with each chop.
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FSM rallied strongly from March to June, then it chopped and consolidated at the 200sma recently, but is now looking ready to run higher. Other silver stocks are at the highs, like EXK, MAG, etc.
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HL is very choppy, but it has doubled since Feb, so buy & hold would have been tough, but it works. Keep this in mind if you buy a small basket of Crypto stocks.
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CDE has made gains over time, but this was not an easy ride at the 50sma from July to now. In reality, CDE has tripled from February to now.
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AEM has followed Gold and is at the 2024 highs. This was a bit choppy, but it has a very nice bull run along the 50sma. This is one of the steadier charts and it has doubled since February.
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So even though a basket of buy and hold has been very choppy, it does work over time in a bull market. Most Miners doubled since February, but WOW were some of these choppy runs. You may want to keep that in mind if you buy a small basket of crypto stocks, since they may be starting a leg higher now too. With Gold, I expect another nice run to $3000 after an ICL drop, and that is why I’d rather just see Gold pull back for a month into an ICL rather than a blow off top run to $3000 on this run. After an ICL, we could run through a list of Miners and see which ones look set to perform well. Maybe the’ll break the 50sma and do a shake out and recover. THAT would be a buy point. I still see KGC, IAG, AEM, AU, etc as steady gainers that hang near the highs, so those should be a good buy on a pull back, and Silver stocks are starting to really look good and are playing catch up too. This 1 year look at these miners is helpful when we think of Crypto stocks too. If we are resuming the Bull run in Crypto, a buy and hold may outperform over time, despite the rough ride in the short term. Enjoy your Wednesday trading.
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~ALEX
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From Yesterdays report:
So now we DEFINITELY see that the Bitcoin breakout is visually apparent now as it reached $69,924. There is a Second reason why I have been waiting for $70,000…
Bitcoin passed the July peak and was already at the May peak and then the April & March peak yesterday, so I posted that in the comments section. Above that first and highest peak is clear blue skies.
Bitcoin at noon was taking out that next level and suddenly Bitcoin was back at the former highs. Bitcoin went on to reach over $73,000 and then it started to sell down. When it did, many of the crypto stocks sold off to red.
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Bitcoin went on to reach $73,600, just shy of the all-time highs at $73,794, and then it started to sell down. This can just keep on going and break out, or it could put on a handle and chop for a bit. Whatever way this goes, it is a very bullish set up and I expect Crypto stocks to make good gains over time, despite the choppiness in many of them yesterday. Gold Miners were choppy at times too, but we just saw how they did make good gains over time.
