Thursday October 17th
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THE SPX – After the large drop on Tuesday, we had a day of recovery Wednesday. So far the SPX held up at the 10 sma, and we’ll just have to see what ‘ the jobless claims report’ and ‘retail sales report’ does today at 8:30.
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THE NASDAQ dropped and bounced back right off of the 8 ema. So far, so good, but what about that semiconductor sector?
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THE SOXX struggled a bit, but it still didn’t break below the dcl (which was at the 50sma. I wrote NASDAQ on the chart, but as you can see from the upper left corner, this is the SOXX (sorry).
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THE SOXX paused on Wednesday and I want to see a reversal higher, because past one day drops ‘paused’ too, but then sold off further. One example is pointed out on this chart, so hopefully the Jobless Claims report pushes this higher. The SOXX below the 50sma is a failure.
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WTIC – Oil is VERY Choppy.
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THE USD has run up about as far as I expected it to, the 200sma. If it bends downward now, I am wondering if this will finally allow Silver to put in a few strong days and break out. We’ll see. The USD is very overbought, but it M-I-G-H-T also just continue higher too.
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The USD rally did not slow down Gold after the dcl was put in place. If the USD pulls back, we could see Gold run higher, since it is only on day 4. 1 more week from now (plus 5 days) is 9 days, 2 more weeks is day 19. Gold is still fairly oversold.
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SILVER moved higher and then retreated a bit. Again, I am hoping that the USD starts to dip and Silver starts to rip (higher). This looks like day 6 for Silver. Silver is still oversold.
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GDX – The dreaded Pop & Drop. I owned Silver stocks and they rallied and then started to give up the gains as the day went on. 🙁 It’s only day 5, but now it would seem like the gap has to fill and then hopefully a USD dip and the miners can rise up.
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With Wednesdays reversal or pause in the General Markets, they appear to be ok, with possibly just a 1 day drop. Today will help us to see if that holds true at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Precious Metals basically popped and dropped yesterday, but they are early in a daily cycle and if the USD tags the 200sma and drops, we could see more upside there. Bitcoin and Crypto stocks looked good this week and over the last couple of week, but they are at the moment of truth in my opinion, I’ll discuss that below. Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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As mentioned in the reports wrap up commentary, Bitcoin and Crypto stocks looked good this week and over the last couple of week, but they are at the moment of truth in my opinion. We have reached the point of a BREAKOUT that could become very bullish – or – it pauses, pulls back and builds energy to try to breakout later. A weekly MACD cross is very rare and we are almost there too.
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BITCOIN WEEKLY – It is possible that Bitcoin drops back and tries to build energy before a breakout. Do I think that Bitcoin needs to ‘build energy’? No-Bitcoin can be powerful at any time, but this does happen at resistance levels, so I wanted to show you this (since Crypto stocks often overreact). Important note: This is a weekly chart, so it would drop for a week or 2.
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If BITCOIN did a simple 1-2 + 3-4 from recent lows, it would break out.
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The crypto stocks like CIFR, WULF, IREN, HUT, BTBT, etc have done well lately, as they break from or run to the highs of their bases. I grabbed this chart in the a.m., but CIFR actually closed up over 14%
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WULF was also running well at 11:45 a.m. ET, so I posted this chart, but it too continued higher and closed up 13%. This chart looks very bullish, but I will show you the big picture too. It is bullish but shows the kind of choppiness that makes these difficult at times.
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WULF has been running up and down in very large swings, so if Bitcoin pulls back, I just want you to see how these move. A move from here to support would be a drop from $5.20 down to $4ish. If Bitcoin break out however, we could see a rally similar to the one in June – July. BIG.
