Tuesday October 1st -Volatility Ahead
Due to the fact that we are nearing the end of daily cycles, I do expect this week to be choppy and possibly full of pop & drops that do not have follow-through. When we finally get our dip into the next dcl, however, we may find some nice entries and buying opportunities, so we can look forward to that.
As a sidenote: There is a major ‘Port Strike’ possibility that could definitely affect the markets, since it is claimed that it would cost the economy $half Billion to $1 Billion dollars per day. You can google that if you want to know more.
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THE SPX dropped on Monday morning, but interestingly, it bounced right off of the 10sma. If you really look at this chart, you’ll see that last week was a choppy up and down week too. I see a rising wedge and they often break down over time (dcl).
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The NASDAQ also dropped to the 10sma and reversed higher there. We were on day 39 Monday, and a dcl can come any time after that, so this can still chop around a little more or drop into that dcl from here.
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The SOXX dropped and could not recover, but it did hold up at the 10sma. So far …
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So far we have a bit of a slightly mixed situation for the general Market, and things remain a little choppy for now, but a dcl is coming due.
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THE USD is choppy at the lows and is unable to get above that green 20ema so far. If it does, it should indicate that we have an ICL in place. Also we have that MACD divergence and that has turned bullish in this choppy low.
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GOLD looks to have a day 31 dcl and a day 28 dcl. Now it has a day 16 peak and is dipping lower. It seems a little early for a dcl, so I put a bounce in there as a possibility, to give Gold a milder dip.
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SILVER is still climbing up along the 20 ema and is only almost 2 months out of an ICL.
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GDX dropped to the 20ema and bounced into the close. I wanted to point out a couple of areas where it did that in July and August, since those bounces only made it choppy. In fact…
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GDX – I also wanted to point out the choppiness and small ‘bounces’ over the past 6 months as the Miners sold down into a dcl. The GDX has reversed at the 20 ema in the past and it has bounced around, but that just might lead to more choppiness unless Silver can break out and run higher taking miners along for the ride.
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I was already expecting this week to be a choppy one, and that is often a difficult week for investors (maybe not so bad for short term traders). Then we have to take into consideration the idea of that ‘Port strike’ with over 45,000 Dockworkers going on strike and the unknown implications that it could have on the economy & the how these markets may react if it happens. Staying light or on the sidelines may be the best idea until we get more clarity. It just seems like Volatility lies ahead, but also a buying opportunity in the future, for the patient ones. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT:
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BITCOIN – Can Bitcoin reach the upper trend line? I’d say “Maybe”, because it should have made it that point, but we are running out of time using cycle timing and the 60 day time period. Please read the chart…
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BITCOIN did run up to $66,500 and then started to dip lower, but I wish it tagged up near $68,000. This may be pulling back into the next dcl somewhere around day 60ish, or it could pop & drop and then dip.
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BITCOIN did drop on day 56 and honestly, I see a small green candle starting now, but it just seems to early and too shallow for a dcl in Bitcoin. Again, this could even bounce and put in a quick double top as seen on the above chart in July and then drop into day 63 or so, but we just have to wait and see.
