Friday October 18th
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THE SPX gapped open higher on Jobless Claims (New all-time highs on day 10), but then sold off into the end of the day and closed slightly red.
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THE SOXX gapped open and then sold off too, but it remained green. As long as it stays above the 50sma ( the last dcl) it is ‘o.k.’
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WTIC – Oil is very choppy and the last 3 candles show a move up, then down, then a close in the middle of the candle. Thursday left us with a doji type candle of indecision. It may have bounced at a new lower trendline.
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To my surprise, THE USD broke right through the 200sma after a long run out of the lows. Gold also made new all-time highs despite that USD rally, so the strength of the USD has not affected Gold, but Silver does seem to be having a small struggle of its own. It is possible that Silver will rally when the USD starts to drop into a dcl.
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GOLD made new all-time highs, but it is in the 4th daily cycle, so I expect this to be part a L.T. Daily Cycle. It is only day 5, so Gold CAN run higher, even to day 10 or 12 or so, and still be L.T. and then fall into an ICL.
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SILVER – Oddly, Silver is struggling a bit here. It put in an ICL in August, so I would have expected more strength with Silver coming out of this dcl, but it may need the USD to roll over before it can really pop.
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GDX did a ‘Pop & Drop’ on Wednesday and again on Thursday, The Miners are choppy, but they are back up at recent highs and some of the Miners are doing well (look up charts of HMY, OR, AU, DRD, EGO, KGC, NEM, RGLD, etc). Many at new highs.
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So the General Markets have been ok, Oil has been quite choppy, and GOLD and some Miners have been very bullish (new highs) while Silver and some other Miners have lagged a bit. The USD has been running straight up, so maybe when it starts to dip lower, Silver and Silver stocks will have a rally of their own. Time will tell. Bitcoin is up near the highs and Crypto stocks have moved off of their lows and we are waiting to see if it is time to breakout or pullback. I’ll cover it below, enjoy your Friday trading and the upcoming weekend!
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~ALEX
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As mentioned over the past several days, Bitcoin is up near the highs when it is around $68,000 and Crypto stocks have moved off of their lows and we are waiting to see if it is time to breakout or pullback. From Yesterday…
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We have reached the point of a BREAKOUT that could become very bullish – or – it pauses, pulls back and builds energy to try to breakout later. A weekly MACD cross is very rare and we are almost there too.
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Yesterday at 11:30 am, using this chart, I pointed out that price reaching near $70,000 would give us a breakout of the downtrend line. So far $68,388 has been the highs for this run.
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Bitcoin is pushing on the upper trendline again tonight, but this could still go either way. If Bitcoin gets to $70,000 however, it is a breakout and it also takes out the last high on the upper trendline. Both of those are bullish developments that should signal that our strong rally is continuing.
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TWO POSSIBLE PATHS SEEM LIKELY:
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Bitcoin could just breakout, back test, and be on the way. Very Bullish.
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Bitcoin could keep doing what it has been doing, chopping and then reversing lower. I get this idea from the move in May, June, & July (Purple Box). We saw a rally to the highs and then a double top on the trendline.
