Friday October 11th – INFLATION??
Today’s DATA is like part 2 to yesterday’s data. CPI Inflation numbers (Inflation) were released on Thursday and on Friday, the PPI numbers are released (Inflation). With the CPI numbers, GOLD& Silver, and The Miners appeared to bottom and rallied into the close, so maybe we’ll see some follow through today.
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THE SPX dropped on Thursday, but no damage was done. That was day 6 of the 2nd daily cycle.
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The SOXX dropped to the 20 ema and bounced back a bit too.
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The USD continues its journey higher. I think it has a date with the 200sma. The USD was up, but Gold, Silver, and GDX was up too.
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WTIC – Oil is very choppy and has wide swings, but it bounced off of the green 10 sma again. It may become choppy under the 200sma and then break out. Yesterday I pointed out how MRO, NOG and a few other Oil stocks like APA, OKE, etc actually looked very good. That makes me think that Oil could have its lows in place, and this is just very choppy.
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GOLD reversed at the 30sma. When I look at this uptrend for Gold, it gives the impression that gold is simply doing a run higher with small or mild dips every 20+ days, so this may become the dcl. So the daily cycles may be very short due to buyers stepping in early. This reversal higher came with the USD Higher, but the CPI Numbers continuing to show a rate cut is possible.
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SILVER reversed right at the 34 sma. I had mentioned that with Wednesdays sharp drop, we might do something similar to what we saw with the sharp drop in the Magenta box. Well, we could, but if the PPI Numbers push Gold and Silver higher, we may just have the dcl here too if price gets above the 10sma. Shorter daily cycles may be occurring as Buyers step in knowing that rate cuts are due throughout 2025. Silver reached oversold and this CAN break to new highs next.
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GDX – The miners had a nice day and the GDX did close above the 10sma. I’m hoping for some good follow through with the PPI Numbers. Many miners looked really good (both Gold and Silver).
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KGC is a gold stock for example, but it held up at the 50sma and began to run higher yesterday. Several of these stocks are up near their highs and my thinking is that if you bought this and Gold and Silver didn’t take off higher yet, this still wouldn’t break down very much.
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AG is acting very well. Yes, it sold off sharply when they bought GATO, but after recovering it has bounced along a support line called the 200sma. I like the upside potential.
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CDE just did a possible shake-out at the 50sma. It is oversold.
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NEM has been choppy, but it is climbing and really it has been a nice 2024 ‘buy and hold’, because big institutions likely buy and hold NEM in their funds. Buy at the 50sma and hold.
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NGD I admit that ‘Buy and Hold’ is tough with wide swings making it look like we may get a large sell off into a dcl at times, but the rallies off of the 50sma have been pretty good and again, we have an uptrend in the bigger picture. That means that in a bull market, buyers are buying at support.
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So the Precious Metals sector did respond favorably to the CPI Numbers, despite the USD rising too. We could have another early dcl in place if the PPI Numbers give us some follow through. I also saw several Gold or Silver stocks dip below the 50sma and recover (Like CDE), so they can usually be bought with a tight stop. 8:30 a.m. PPI Numbers are really the numbers that the Fed uses to gauge how things are going. Enjoy your Friday trading!
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~ALEX
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From Yesterday:
Today would be day 7 if the lows hold and Bitcoin turns up, but if the day 59 lows are broken, then I would have to do a continuation of that count and today would be day 66. We would then be very much due for a low, but this does get frustrating.
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BITCOIN COUNT– So it does look to me like we have a day 66 low and let me explain 2 reasons why I feel this way.
1. I was asked if day 59 could still be the low and the day 63 spike is still really day 4 of a new daily cycle. That is extremely unlikely, because it would be a day 4 peak of a 60 day cycle. I have never seen anything even close to that in the past. I think that the cycle extended and for a 60 day cycle, day 66 is fine.
2. Another reason that I favor this count is that the crypto stocks actually seem to be starting to hold up well. It doesn’t seem like Bitcoin will roll over and fail now, in my opinion.
So Bitcoin also looks like this and a descending wedge is usually bullish.
HUT is one example of a crypto stocks that didn’t get UGLY when Bitcoin sold off yesterday. We’ll just have to wait and see what kind of follow through we get in this sector. Upside or downside follow through?
