September 21st Weekend Report
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SPX WEEKLY – on this Fed Week where the interest rate was cut by .50 basis points, The SPX broke to new all-time highs. It will be due for a dcl soon and that will be a buy the dip or ‘add’ to positions opportunity. I do want to point out the MACD & RSI divergence at new all-time highs. It also looks to be showing a little weakness on the MACD. That MIGHT indicate that we may not see a continuation higher, but more of a sideways choppy consolidation, but for now it is bullish.
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And then we have the weaker SOXX WEEKLY. This also could be considered to be a buy, but it also shows obvious weakness and needs to improve on the second daily cycle.
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WTIC WEEKLY – Oil broke down and now this could be a normal back test before Oil heads even lower.
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By Request:
NATGAS DAILY – Natgas does seem to be stabilizing and may be forming a triangular base here. It is choppy and difficult for many to just buy and hold (Choppy), but if it drops down to the lows of that triangle again and reverses at about $2, it would be a buy. OR…
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OR
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Natgas could drop 1/2 way down to put in a dcl and fill that gap, and they turn up and break out. That higher low reversal (dcl) would be a buy too.
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GOLD WEEKLY –
1. After the first Red triangle breakout and mid-point chop, it pushed higher for 3 weeks and then peaked, forming another triangle consolidation. The Blue one.
2. After forming that Blue triangle, Gold broke out, formed a midpoint chop, and is now on week 2 higher. It should peak soon, because this is the 3rd daily cycle and the RSI is overdone too.
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Gold rallied higher while Silver consolidated sideways. It kind of looks like Silver may now run higher as Gold consolidates. I say that partly because Gold is in the 3rd daily cycle and Silver is in the first daily cycle out of an ICL.
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SILVER WEEKLY – Silver has formed an ICL in August, so it should have more time to push higher.
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GDX WEEKLY – GDX has been chopping higher for months, but the swings are so large in the chop that it has been difficult to ride at times. This is likely due to the amount of uncertainty that we had with the Fed, and people were wondering all year long “When will he cut? April? Nope. June? Nope etc”. Now that cuts are here and in the forecast, maybe we’ll see a smoother run higher over time.
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GDX WEEKLY – Again, you can see just how choppy GDX has been in 2024 with the close up of this weekly chart. It would be nice to see it breakout higher and just start doing a bit more of a vertical run, now that rate cuts are in play.
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So the Fed Week had a surprise 50 basis point cut and it was Bullish for the General Markets and Precious Metals. We should see ‘buy the dip’ set ups in play when these sectors dip down into a dcl. Bitcoin will be covered below. Enjoy your weekend!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN had that capitulation low, which could mark an ICL. We are now 14 days out of the second higher low. Crypto stocks are not running ahead of Bitcoin like they do when they are in a strong rally, however let’s get to the bigger picture…
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Crypto stocks are not running ahead of Bitcoin like they do when they are in a strong rally, but I had mentioned in a recent report using this chart that Bitcoin did finally reach the 50 week ma and the 2 recent lows bounced along it. This consolidation COULD continue a little longer, but it does look like a bullish set up. I then pointed out the stochastics. We may need this to be 1 last 60day cycle to get that oversold.
On the daily chart I showed on September 4th that the 50sma & 200sma were close together and the last time we had this during a long consolidation to took a while before it got running. PRICE ran up to the 200sma in October 2023, so I would at least expect that bounce now. Once it did breakout & run though, it ran like a cheetah. NOW FOR AN UPDATE…
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NOW FOR AN UPDATE…
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Bitcoin ran to the 200sma in Oct 2023, chopped, and then broke out. Right now Bitcoin is at the 200sma too. Let’s see if this is ready to breakout and go ….or not. And the weekly…
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This Weekly chart of Bitcoin actually looks very bullish to me. I feel that this could be ready to run to the highs and prepare to break out. Keep an eye on this as we go forward, because this also seems like a bullish time of the year for Bitcoin.
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I could easily see something like this take place for the Bitcoin Weekly Chart. A run to the highs, a pullback to that blue 50 week ma, and then the breakout, where MARA, RIOT, IREN, WULF, HUT, etc all start to rally with Bitcoin too. I am watching for anything like this going forward.
