Friday September 20th – Bullish Dips
Apparently, there is no important data scheduled for today, so let the chips fall wherever they may.
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THE SPX had a rally & then it reversed lower on Fed Wednesday, but it gapped open higher on Thursday and gave us a day 32 all-time high. That makes this R.T. and now when this eventually drops down into a dcl (maybe a backtest of this breakout), you could buy (or add to current longs) on the dip.
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THE SOXX is still really lagging, but it did manage to break above the downtrend and close above the 50sma. It still just looks a little weak at this point, but if it plays catch up, SOXL or semiconductor trades should be good trades (see AMD, MU, NVDA, ASX, TSEM, etc). The break of the downtrend lines…
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The break of the downtrend lines in the SPX, NASDAQ, and SOXX should indicate that we really did get an ICL only 3.5 months after the April ICL, due to the Fed Rate Cuts. The pullback was deep, and the SOXX still looks weak, but now buying NVDA, TSLA, GOOG, NFLX, and the other often Bullish companies is a buy & hold strategy that some may like to consider.
WTIC – Oil is bouncing, but at day 25 that could be a half cycle low, and Oil is in a downtrend.
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THE USD does not like Rate cuts and still looks to be struggling.
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GOLD does like rate cuts, but as Gold pushed higher, Miners were rather lack-luster yesterday. For Gold, this is day 11 and it is holding above the 20 ema in a 3rd daily cycle. Gold remains at all time highs.
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SILVER rallied sharply, but silver stocks were rather lack-luster too.
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YESTERDAY I SAID:
So GDX is either a day 31 Pop and drop and we head for a dcl, OR a day 23 dcl may be in place if GDX rallies post Fed.
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I thought that the Miners were rather lack-luster on Thursday, with Gold and Silver pushing toward the highs, so it very well could be that we are due to drop into a dcl before running higher.
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GDX – Again, Day 32 & due for more of a drop to the 50sma? Or did we have a short 22 day daily cycle and this is day 9? It’s hard to know for sure, but I thought that the Miners seemed weak with Gold & Silver up and if we do dip into a dcl, we are at day 33 and a dcl could form any day. It has to be viewed as ‘Buy the dip’.
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The Good News: The Post Fed Thursday trading remained bullish and the Feds rate cuts do seem to be helping the Bullishness in the General Markets longer term (looks like an early rate cut induced ICL and the next dcl is a buy the dip), and in the Precious Metals Markets longer term too (they are at the all-time highs). The Miners are not at all-time highs, but with the promise of more rate cuts in both 2024 & 2025, we could see the miners strengthen in their run to new highs going forward.
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This was a Fed Week and the volatility gave us some BIG SWINGS, so even though this was a bullish week, it was not really a fun week for many. Fed weeks can be rough for both traders and buy and hold investors, but things do look good going forward, so if you stayed invested as buy and hold, you can remain invested. If you stepped aside and need to get back in (I am mostly cash), you can wait for the next dcl to buy or simply try to buy something near support.
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That chart of NVDA is an example of a buy spot, whether it pulls back at the trend line or breaks out. Start small and add at the next dcl. OR…
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Or maybe you are thinking something similar to me, and that is that Silver stocks (& Gold stocks) should make another nice run too, so you want to own them.
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FSM had a beautiful run from around $2.75 to $6.25 from Feb to May. THAT is a big run, and now it dipped down to the 200sma during the General Market correction (crash) and bounced there twice. Silver looks to have an ICL, so this is a buy here or on the dips.
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EXK crashed hard when the General markets crashed or corrected into an ICL, after releasing earnings. It also bounced off of the 200sma twice with the Silver ICL, so EXK is at the 50sma and may look attractive to you too. A basket of Silver Miners may be a good buy in this area or at the next dcl.
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Enjoy your Friday trading and your weekend!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN has a measured move to 65,000 area, but it CAN extend beyond that. The crypto stocks have moved up off of the lows too, but they are still not quite showing the zeal that they usually do, so it may be a bounce for them. Take a look at Bitcoins ramp up and compare it with WULF, IREN, MARA, CLSK, etc and you will see what I am saying. That MIGHT change as Bitcoin continues higher or it MIGHT indicate that bitcoins consolidation has not ended yet. Time will tell.
