Friday September 13th – Light The Fuse
We do not have what I would consider significant Data for Friday, but over the last 2 days we did have a lot of ‘Inflation Data’, and it started a spark in the Precious Metals sector. We’ll focus mainly on that in today report…
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THE SOXX was the weak area, so I want to start here first. We had an ICL in April and the SOXX rolled over quickly and broke very other low from the initial rally. This gives us ‘Failed’ dcls. Now notice that the SOXX crashed in July to NEW LOWS BELOW THE ICL. THAT is bearish and it also seems too early for a new ICL (3.5 months), but a bounce was due, so I said that we would watch it as maybe a day 23 1/2 cycle low. I want to see if price ‘tags’ the 50 sma and drops or gets above it…
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But now take a look at The SPX. This actually looks quite bullish, and it looks like a normal half cycle low, right?
If this breaks to new highs, how can I deny that an ICL was put in place after only 3 months. It does look like a clear a-b-c down. It would HAVE TO BE due to the Fed intervention, Rate Cuts, etc.
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WTIC – Oil is bouncing and it could even bounce to the 50sma, but it really is too early for a dcl, so that day 25 low is probably a half cycle low.
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GOLD – I think that this chart closes at 1 p.m., and I actually think that Gold was up near $50. This is a very clear breakout, and it came after 2 days of inflation bases data that indicated that not only would the Fed cut rates, but he could cut rates a few times in 2024 alone. So…
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THIS MOVE tells me that Gold left behind a dcl at day 29, so this is only day 7. Gold is NOT overbought, and it can run higher in a 3rd daily cycle…a possibility discussed in past reports.
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Do we have a measured move? One measured move would be to $2638, but these targets can extend if Silver takes off and drags Gold higher with it. Is Silver Bullish enough to do that? Yes, it really is…
THIS IDEA WAS IN MY LAST COUPLE OF REPORTS: I said in part…
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SILVER – If the inflation data is viewed as bullish, Silver could still run higher and then drop into a dcl later. It is on day 24…
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SILVER popped with that bullish inflation data this week, and it appears to be on its way higher. The implications of this set up are very strong, so even though I have mentioned it in past reports, let me tell you why this could be a VERY Bullish set up…
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The reason is that Silver now is showing signs that it DID put an ICL in place recently.
If Silver dropped this week, then this would have been a 5th daily cycle, but this now looks like an ICL, a half cycle low, and the rest of the first daily cycle. If this is only the FIRST daily cycle, and Gold is breaking to All-time Highs after its’ ICL? Silver can really run higher.
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GDX– Gold popped up almost 5% and looking at the bigger picture, it really should at least run to the next prior price point of $43. If it breaks even higher, then we are facing new highs that go all the way back to 2011!
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GDX– Was this a day 23 dcl, or is the dcl ahead? It doesn’t matter very much, because the next dip could be when Gold does a half cycle low and Silver dips to a dcl.
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The possible ‘measured move’ for GDX is in the $42.32 area, but it can extend using Fib levels. This was a big 5% day with huge volume. GDX is NOT overbought.
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IN YESTERDAYS REPORT I MENTIONED 2 SILVER STOCKS (AG & CDE) THAT LOOKED IMPRESSIVE.
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I said that AG was oversold and it popped up almost 8% with the rate cut hopes. GATO ran higher too (AG bought GATO).
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AG was up another 12%, but what about CDE?
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Yesterday I said:
CDE is oversold and also popped about 7.5%, so the silver stocks started to react nicely, even though the metals themselves only moved up a little bit. Maybe Miners are going to lead this sector higher?
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CDE was up over 20% at one point yesterday, and look at that volume! So keep an eye on FSM, HL, SSRM, PAAS, MAG, etc, because Silver stocks are really moving nicely.
Finally, I wanted to re-visit this chart from September 6th.
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You may recall that I said that I liked that Silvers price found support exactly where it should reverse if this is a bull market, but I didn’t love what I saw with that MACD curling downward. This would need to improve.
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SILVER WEEKLY- Wow, look at that reversal!
1. It came in at he 30 week ma, exactly where it should have reversed.
2. Now the MACD is just starting to curl upward.
3. Silver is still on the ‘oversold’ side of the stochastics and the RSI held at the 50%.
4. Silver does look to have an ICL in place at that prior low on the 30 week ma, meaning that we have a good amount of ‘Time’ in this intermediate cycle to fly. .
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WHAT IF SILVER IS DOWN ON FRIDAY THOUGH? SHOULD I WORRY THAT IT WAS JUST A ONE DAY ‘FLASH IN THE PAN”?
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No, Silver is known to either Pop and run in the past, or it can Pop – Pause – Pop – Pause, as seen on this chart below.
1. With the Red Arrows we saw a POP and 2 day pause over and over and over.
2. At the April lows, it Popped & ran higher.
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WHAT MIGHT SILVER STOCKS DO?
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I can’t make any promises, but if Silver is early in the ICL, and if the past rallies can apply to the future, then take a look at HL as an example in the strong run of the 2020 consolidation:
HL ran straight up for weeks in 2020 and Thursday was a recent breakout of a very large consolidation. Selling on Thursday could be a mistake. I would buy this breakout if I hadn’t already bought it on Wednesday.
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Gold is at all-time highs again, with yesterdays breakout and Silver is now set up to go higher, whether it is red or green on Friday. The Precious Metals Sector turned quite bullish with the Inflation data this week, and sending Gold to new all-time highs should grab every investors’ attention. I hope that you own some Miners or bought with the Thursday report, and we should now be in ‘buy & hold’ or in a ‘buy the dip’ mode for a while again too. Enjoy your Friday trading! 🙂
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~ALEX
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FROM THURSDAYs REPORT:
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BITCOIN is still trying to break and hold above that 20 ema this morning. This should be day 6 with the rare chance that that slam down capitulation low near day 31 re-started the count as an ICL and in that case we’d be on day 30+. Either way, this still has plenty of time left before another low comes due, and it should run higher.
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BITCOIN Friday 6 a.m.
Bitcoin started to break above that 20 ema yesterday. I will just mention that I owned a couple of crypto stocks yesterday and they did quite well on Wednesday and Thursday out of the lows. That said, as Bitcoin began to rise into the end of the day, MARA, RIOT, HUT, WULF, IREN, etc all started to sell off a little. At that time, my Gold and Silver stocks were still flying, so I sold the Crypto stocks for the day and will watch what they do today, but they did start to hesitate yesterday.
