Wednesday August 28th – Choppy
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NASDAQ – Are you bored? Basically, the markets have spent the last 7 or 8 days chopping sideways. When will it pick a direction?
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NASDAQ – Our deep sharp selloff low. Was that an early ICL? It seemed too early but the move out of that low has given us a V-Bottom. From here we await NVDA earnings after the bell today. THAT might start the next move, because the General Markets have chopped sideways for almost 7 days. Let’s zoom in.
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You can count 7 or 8 days back and price was the same as it is now, because we have been chopping sideways.
The Nasdaq dipped and recovered yesterday, and this chart looks pretty good actually. It looks like it is supported at the 50sma. The SOXX remains a bit sketchier, so as long as the Nasdaq holds up here and starts to move higher, then this would be a buy the dip. The SOXX, however…
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THE SOXX has been choppy and that is still normal price action, and it even recovered the 20 ema yesterday, but notice this also resembles past times when it chopped and then dropped. I want to see The SOXX get back above the 50sma and that would satisfy me that the bull run has returned. Right now, it struggles on day 16, peak on day 13.
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WTIC – The MACD still looks good, but this price action is too dramatic to enjoy, right? This isn’t just chop, it’s volatility at its worst.
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And the XOP is chopping under resistance, but this could be churning or crawling to build energy for a breakout, so it is worth keeping an eye on.
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YESTERDAY I POSTED THIS, AND THIS GAVE US THE CYCLE COUNT TOO:
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FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT:
GOLD was on day 22 Monday and it has a day 18 peak. I was hoping for a nice strong rally into maybe day 28 or so, before a dip into a dcl would develop, but Mondays was more of a weaker push higher.
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GOLD gave us a weak doji on Tuesday and now appears to be forming a bearish rising wedge too. These break down when they reach the apex area. I’d like to see a new peak before it rolls over. Gold was on day 23 on Tuesday and 24 today, so we are due for a dcl with Gold. The breakdown from this wedge should lead into that dcl, but we still could get one more push higher and maybe a new peak?
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SILVER is a bit earlier in the daily cycle, so if that was an ICL, I would expect this to rally higher. This has a day 12 peak and Tuesday was day 13.
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GDX may be forming a small pennant and they can break either way, but it would be nice to see a pop higher and then maybe a choppy move to the 50sma again.
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ONE FINAL CHART:
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THE USD has seen a steep decline and not only is it due for a dcl, but it could be ready to form an ICL. The USD hasn’t been impacting Gold as much as it used to, but if it puts in an ICL and move quickly higher, it does make me wonder if that will ‘peak’ Gold for now. We’ll see.
The General Markets have been chopping sideways for 7 or 8 days, and I think that they may be ready to move one way or the other after the NVDA earnings today after the bell. Oil has been very volatile, the USD is ready for a dcl / ICL, and then the Precious Metals sector has been doing well, but Gold is due to peak and Silver should not be ready to peak, unless that was not an ICL yet for Silver. Thats a bit tricky, but the Miners have done very well in 2024 and I believe that this bull market has further to go into the end of 2024 too. I like the Bitcoin and crypto stock set up, and a day 60 low is getting closer each day. We may have that low in roughly 1 week, so I will discuss that below. I personally want to watch and maybe take that trade, just in case Crypto Stocks join in and we finally breakout higher there. I also want to be around on Thursday after NVDA and Jobless Claims release. Those could give the markets direction ( 7 days of sideways chop so far), so I have some work that I have been doing for my parents off and on during this weeks trading. I may miss a morning or an afternoon here and there in the commenting area this week, to keep my week clear next week. I do want to be here Thursday morning though. Enjoy your Wednesday trading.
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~ALEX
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YESTERDAY I SAID:
BITCOIN could do this small rally and then a dip, but to be honest, it is often best to just keep in mind that this cycle is getting late and that it could dip soon.
When Bitcoin sells off, it often goes from looking great to a death dive 🙂 That dip could be mild or sharp again, so I’m not really personally buying and holding crypto stocks yet, even though a few are really starting to shape up nicely. THAT is also why I am wondering if we just saw a final capitulation low. WULF, BTBT, and a few others are bullishly set up, post earnings.
LAST NIGHT BITCOIN DROPPED SHARPLY AFTER THE CLOSE: This is the danger of Bitcoin when it gets late in the daily cycle count…it can drop sharply. I doubt that this is a day 53 early final low though. That little green candle should be day 54 and that is what we have so far, so we could bounce and do one more final drop near day 60. How much of a bounce? How much of a drop? It’s impossible to say, but I have noticed improvement in some of the crypto stocks, and it may be time to buy them after out day 60ish low is in place.
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BITCOIN – I did not get my measured move to the $68,000 area, and now with that drop I think that the $68,000 area is not going to happen yet. So within the ‘time’ that we have left, we could see a small bounce and another drop something like this.
