Thursday August 15th – Incoming Data
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Well, We certainly do have a lot of DATA to be released today. We’ll have to wait and see how that affects the markets.
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AS A REMINDER: I SHOWED THIS CHART YESTERDAY AND EXPLAINED…
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1. The a-b-c drop was sharp. The rally out of ‘c’ was decent for about 12 days, but then it rolled over.
2. Look where I wrote ‘strong bounce‘. That rally was 11 days straight up, just like we are seeing now. After that tag of the 200sma area though, it sold off for 2 months.
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SOXX – This has only been a 7 day rally, but it is at resistance and we have a lot of economic data to be released today. That is what caused that sharp sell off the day after the Fed Mtg 2 weeks ago, so I am simply admonishing that we stay alert.
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We are also at day 7 for THE SPX, and it has reached a resistance area too. Todays data will either push it through or we’ll see a pull back.
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WTIC – After a very strong surge out of the lows by Oil, we now have 2 days that actually dropped the price back below the 50 & 200sma. The Oil stocks didn’t seem to follow Oil, so that is encouraging.
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XOP – The Oil stocks were actually green today, despite Oils sell off. So far, it’s pausing to probably try to build energy to push through the overhead resistance.
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GOLD is on day 14 and it dipped down and bounced off of the 10sma. I was a little disappointed that the CCI numbers that seem to prove that we will see a rate cut, didn’t push Gold to new all-time highs, but the chart remains bullish. Basically…
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Basically, as mentioned in the weekly chart, we are in a multi month consolidation that has followed a very strong run from October to April, and that has been choppy.
And I mentioned that it is possible that we chop upward through this intermediate cycle, and then rally strongly again out of the next ICL. We’ll see, but even with this, the Miners can go higher.
SILVER is on day 5 and it is also beneath the 10sma, which often acts as resistance for a short period of time. Take a look at each Orange arrow and notice how Silver started each move out of those lows with small weak looking days, and then it took off. That is what we are hoping to see here soon.
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GDX – Dropped lower during yesterdays trading, which was disappointing in a way. Why? The Inflation numbers came out Tuesday and Wednesday and indicated a rate cut would be coming (maybe a few, since inflation already hit 2.9% and their target was 2%), did not push this sector off to new all-time highs. A rate cut was positive for Gold. I know that we are hoping for a nice rally in the 2nd daily cycle, but the good thing is that this is only day 7 and GDX did run from $34 to $37 so far. Also, yesterdays dip reversed at the 20 ema.
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BARRICK is one of those Miners that is sill up near the highs after releasing earnings. Also…-
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EGO is still up at the highs. It has done a couple of pop & drop moves to new highs and back, but it looks bullish.
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KGC is not at the highs, but it is very close. It dipped yesterday and bounced back to green too, while Gold and Silver were down.
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In choppy sideways markets it is hard to make money. It comes and goes and comes and goes as price bounces up and down. That said, we have made excellent gains with the Miners since October of last year.
HMY, KGC, EGO, OR, AU, AEM, etc etc all roughly ran up 100% since March, as seen in the 2 charts below, but we are in a choppy consolidation period and the Bull run should continue over time.
I do still like the Precious Metals and the set up for many Miners here. As seen, several are still up near the highs and they can run higher from here too. The set ups for many remain bullish, we are just in a choppy period so far for Gold, Silver is closer to its’ lows, and the inflation data was not enough of a catalyst to push Gold into a run to new all-time highs again.
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GOLD live 7 a.m. This close up actually shows Gold as a double bottom cup and handle. The cup bounced off of the 50sma and the handle is at the 10 ema. This could break to new highs.
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The General Markets are running higher out of the crash, and I’m sorry if I sound like a broken record, but I am expecting the selling to return. This will reset sentiment and the bull run can then return after a consolidation / correction. When do I expect the selling? Sooner than later if that is not an ICL 3 months after the last one. Why soon? The daily cycle should become Left Translated, and that is why the rallies in the 2021-2022 chart peaked at day 12. We are currently on day 8 today, the markets hit resistance levels, and we have economic data that will either push the markets above those moving averages OR start that sell off. We’ll see. Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN COUNT IN YESTERDAYS REPORT: I said…
We are now on day 40 and bitcoin moved higher out of that day 38 low yesterday and overnight.
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BITCOIN – What I would like to see is a higher low on the next rally and pullback into day 60ish. Then we might be able to finally break out and run from this long consolidation. Maybe then, the Miners would join in on the move higher.
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BITCOIN dropped yesterday and has a tiny candle live this morning, that dropped below the 10sma. That is ok, Bitcoin does tend to be a little more volatile, but we are now starting day 41, and I’d like to see more upside soon.
