August 10th Weekend Report – The Path Forward
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THE SPX – We ended the week with a bounce back to the 10 or 13 sma. I have discussed in the weekday reports that depending on the cycle counts, this may just sell off from here next week.
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SPX WEEKLY– That was a large gap down and recovery in the weekly charts, but this can continue lower over time.
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THE SOXX DAILY also bounced back to an area where I thought that it could turn back lower. If so we could get a couple of large down days from here.
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NASDAQ DAILY – Here I am showing that a normal intermediate cycle is roughly 6-7 months long. We are now 3.5 months out from the last ICL, so this should have more time to drop after the bounce.
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NASDAQ WEEKLY – Again, we are really at 3.5 months and past ICL to ICL were 5 months, 7 months, and 6 months. 3.5 months just seems too early, so I expect at least another daily cycle lower. Notice how STEEP that 4 week drop from the highs was. The selling was serious.
WTIC – Oil actually sold off lower than it should have, by undercutting the ICL, but this could be a shakeout that simply tagged that uptrend line. Also this is a LONG consolidation forming a triangle and when that breaks out, Oil prices really may begin to rise.
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THE XOP actually did the same thing. It sold off with the General Markets, but it actually reversed right at a support line.
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THE USD dropped too, and it has reversed at what MIGHT be an ICL. We also could get one more daily cycle and that would still fit inside of this apex.
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GOLD broke out and ran very strongly in 2024. It has been consolidating the gains from that run and when we expected an ICL drop to the 30 week ma or 50 week ma like past drops, it rallied to new highs with the talk of lower inflation and a rate cut. That was supposed to be a 4th daily cycle, so this was an anomaly. Now …
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Gold should only be starting a 2nd daily cycle, so now it is believed to have put in an ICL with a triangle on the daily charts, and could continue to new highs. The weekly divergence is negative, but this can still run to new highs for the next daily cycle, and then start to pull back and back test this area. This is a weekly chart, so that kind of a move could level off the weekly RSI & MACD.
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THIS WAS MY SILVER DAILY CHART IN FRIDAYS REPORT:
Silver put in a lower low Thursday and then made a nice run 2.5% higher. We are in the timing for a dcl and even an ICL, so I am keeping an eye on the Silver Miners now too.
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Silver is late in the cycle count, with a day 38 low here, but it is still under the 10sma. One more drop could be possible. I say this because of what the weekly chart looks like…
I felt that Silver should have dropped a little further, but this is a reversal candle and the daily cycle looked ready for a dcl / ICL. One more drop would get us to the red 50 week ma, the magenta trend line, and that weekly stochastics may touch the lower line.
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Spot Silver is interesting, because it actually made a lower low and the count from that low only gets us to day 32, so one more drop could easily come from this set up and complete that weekly chart.
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Then we look at The GDX count and it is clearly from that June 17th area and we’d have low in place at day 33 so far. So GDX is either on dy 4 with a dcl in place, or we get one more drop and put in a day 39 or 40 or so dcl.
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The Weekly GDX formed a large reversal, so again, we may have the lows in place at day 33.
Next week will be when we see if we get continuations from this weeks bounce, or does the selling start again in the General Markets? Do Gold, Silver, and The Miners continue higher too, or will we see a little more downside in those areas. All of this comes at an interesting time, because FOR 2 DAYS NEXT WEEK THE DATA IS ALL ABOUT INFLATION!
Enjoy your weekend!
~ALEX –
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FRIDAY I SAID IN PART:
The Bitcoin bounce from the day 31 reversal has definitely kicked in after that day 31 exhaustion reversal. The BITCOIN ETFS that I have mentioned are doing well too.
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BITCOIN has that day 31 low in place and it is chopping sideways this weekend in what looks like a bullish pennant or flag pattern. I would expect it to continue higher with so much time left in the daily cycle, but it may not breakout to new all-time highs yet.
