Wednesday July 24th – What’s Next?
We have DATA that presents the economy and then inflation at 9:45 a.m., so it may be a choppy start to the morning.
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SOXX – The SOXX honestly didn’t make any progress on Tuesday.
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THE SPX popped and then sold down and closed slightly red, too. The General Markets look weak right now.
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THE BIOTECH, however. was green.
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LABU was not up a whole lot, but I had mentioned on Monday that it reversed at the 20 sma and now we’re seeing follow though in this biotech sector. Several of my favorite Biotech stocks look really good too…
I mentioned the next couple of comments yesterday after an hour or 2 of trading. You can look up those charts and see if they continued higher or not…
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I have mentioned TWST since the 200sma, but sadly I didn’t buy & hold it. Climbing above the 50sma like this often indicates that it is riding on the 34 sma.
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WTIC – Oil is STILL selling down. I was thinking that a half cycle low would come in at the 50/200sma area, and we discussed looking for a reversal there, but so far Oil sold off after that reversal formed. Did you notice that the Volume is heavy too? There is now a possibility that Oil will do a ’round trip’, which is a back test of the ICL.
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And we can see that now The XOP did a round trip back to the June lows at the 200sma too, and it is headed there again. This means that we now have a choppy Oil & Oil Stocks sector.
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REMINDER: In the weekend report we discussed that Gold appears to have given us a false break out (for now), but that new high means that we have an ICL.
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GOLD then broke out and dropped back to the 50sma area. Since this now looks like an ICL, it may just land in that 50sma for the dcl.
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With Silver I discussed how it did still look like a normal 4th daily cycle, which could be followed by a 5th into an ICL, but then we ask: DOES THAT MAKE SENSE? Does it make sense that GOLD & The GDX have ICL Characteristics, and Silver would sell off into an ICL a month later? Not really, so I need to look at Silver as though it may be an ICL too, but if so, the lows shouldn’t break down…
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SILVER came so close to breaking those lows, but it didn’t. I’m keeping an eye on Silver stocks for now, because IF this is a first daily cycle, it may be close to putting in a dcl, and the 2nd could be the strong one that breaks out for Silver ( like Gold and The Gdx).
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YESTERDAY I SAID:
GDX certainly looks like an ICL was in place, right? This would have been the 4th ‘weaker’ daily cycle and instead it shot up to new 2024 highs and looks like it will be R.T. And then I also said…
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In fact, GDX is at April 2022 Highs! Those are 2 year highs, so how could this possibly be a ‘weak’ 4th daily cycle?? This had to have been an ICL when the Fed discussed rate Cuts and cooling inflation. Silver is the only one that didn’t join in, but it probably will in the 2nd daily cycle.
And now we see that The GDX ETF DOES look like an ICL, possibly pulling back to the 50sma?
A weak 4th daily cycle should NOT be strong enough to break out to new highs, and new 2 year highs, but the GDX did. We would now be on day 25 on Wednesday. I would watch for an early dcl, but most likely we’ll see a small bear flag right form here under the 8 ema and then a final drop into a dcl near the 50sma. We’ll see.
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So we are seeing pull backs, but things seem to be lining up for another run higher in the Precious Metals Sector. We would want to buy that next dcl, because it would send Gold back into the ‘all-time highs’ area again, and Miners could really do well. It might be a few days away, but we’ll stay alert to any real reversals at this point. We have inflation numbers today and Friday, so stay frosty my friends! What about Bitcoin? I’ll cover that below. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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YESTERDAY:
BITCOIN has been rapidly pushing out of the lows, with mild pullbacks to the 10sma , so far. The problem is that many Crypto-related stocks were not acting quite as bullishly lately, so we want to keep an eye on that.
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BITCOIN dropped and bounced off of the 8 ema and that was great, but it didn’t hold there. I had added to my crypto related stocks and got stopped out of those new positions. I set tight stop just to be safe, because these CAN drop 10% in a day. This actually chopped a bit out of my gains 🙁 So where are we now??
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BITCOIN dropped to the 8 ema, so I drew this ideal – perfect idea of what I’d like to see. A 2 day drop here and there, and this one would end on Wednesday and surge higher (that would be today in a perfect world).
BITCOIN is reversing right at the 8 ema. It IS following that pattern that I pointed out, but we’ll have to see if tis turns out to be the next burst higher. THIS SOULD BE A BUY AREA. If crypto related stocks drop here, I may lighten up, but so far…
SOME CRYPTO-RELATED STOCKS ARE HOLDING UP JUST FINE: Yesterday I mentioned that in the comments with this chart. This is not a big pull back…
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WULF has been running higher and the pullback is not drastic, but can it continue higher if Bitcoin runs from here? I’m dying to find out, since I own some in my basket!
MARA has NOT been holding up well. I owned this and the drop yesterday was 10%. We’ll see if it can move higher if Bitcoin does, but I thought that maybe this was headed for the 50sma now.
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RIOT ran from $8.80 to $13, and that’s actually a great run, but it dropped to $11.50 as of yesterday and if you bought it late, that could hurt. Let’s see if
1. Bitcoin runs higher from here and
2. The Crypto related stocks follow
