Wednesday July 10th
DATA – Todays Data is similar to Tuesdays, Thursdays could be a real market mover.
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The SPX is slowly puttering along higher, but this is once again, new all-time highs.
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WTIC – oil dropped again and what we see now is a ‘dip’ instead of the sideways chop that we have seen in between rallies. That slight change makes me believe that this dip is a little different–it may be the 1/2 cycle low coming into play.
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Yesterday I discussed this consolidation in my report. To be honest, Gold still looks like it wants to move even higher.
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GOLD is chopping around sideways at this point, it was refusing to drop into a visible dcl, and we’ll probably have to wait for the Inflation numbers to be released on Thursday to see if it really has any more hidden strength to release to the upside, or will it finally sell down. For now we’ve been in a sideways consolidation for months and we are above the 10, 20, & 50sma.
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SILVER had 2 good up-days last week to help it to break above prior peaks in early June. This tends to look like BULL PENNANT, so we’ll see what todays Fed testimony or Thursdays inflation numbers do for it. I want to buy a couple of Silver stocks with a reasonable stop…just in case.
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GDX – In past reports I used June 17th as the dcl. That would make this a day 12 ‘peak’ so far and we’d be on day 14. This is exactly where daily cycles become L.T. or R.T., depending on the path they choose going forward, right? And today we have the Fed testimony and tomorrow we have the inflation numbers. A direction will likely be chosen this week.
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Take a look at the charts and you’ll see that FSM, HL, and AG are weak looking. CDE, EXK, & PAAS have been doing well, so I will post 1 of each below…to show that this could still go either way.
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1 of each below, the bullish and the ‘ok’ set up.
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CDE is obviously the Bullish one. It and EXK are still at THE HIGHS.
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Then we take a look at HL, FSM, and AG. They are obviously Weaker and trapped under resistance areas. These are not close to the highs either. So will the Fed & Inflation Numbers push this higher this week(?), or will that data top/peak the higher ones where they are(?). I think we’ll know today or tomorrow.
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We definitely have bullish markets, but the precious metals sector really should have been ready to dip down into a dcl and an ICL. The Fed speech last week changed that and inflation numbers seemed to indicate that a rate cut may have to come by September. I watched that testimony yesterday, and one Senator warned Powell that a rate cut before the election would be biased. Another warned that waiting too long could bring the US into a recession and hurt the job markets. He remained resolved that he fed board will decide whatever they need, with politics left out of the decision. Todays testimony ought to touch on this again, we’ll see (It is played live on CNBC, if any care to tune in). I will cover Bitcoin and a noticeable change, below. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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THIS CHART WAS IN THE WEEKEND REPORT:
BITCOIN DAILY – So we saw a crash down on Friday day 65 while I was away, and then it started to bounce back. Many Crypto-Miners were green when Bitcoin crashed, so this is likely marking a major low. We may have a shake out on day 65.
HOWEVER, there was a noteworthy change that took place on Tuesday, and I didn’t like it , so far…
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BITCOIN looked good on Monday & Tuesday, but many or most of the crypto related stocks dropped this time. It may be nothing – it may be simply that since they ran with Bitcoin dropping, they now were a bit extended and needed to pull back, but I hated it all the same. Some that didn’t run and weren’t extended also dropped with Bitcoin up, so I am now watching this sector closely again for clues. Take a look at Bitcoin on Monday & Tuesday here with the orange arrows.and…
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Take a look at Bitcoin on Monday & Tuesday (It was UP both days), and we’ll look at the Crypto-related stock too.
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BTBT – Bitcoin was up, BTBT was down 7%, and that looks like a bearish engulfing? Yes, I know that when Bitcoin was down, these rallied, but I want to stay alert to the idea that this pullback might become deeper on some of these while Bitcoin is very green.
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I have owned IREN, HUT, and a few others that blasted off when Bitcoin was trending lower. We made Great gains from May to June, but this is a 12% drop in IREN, while Bitcoin has 2 green days in a row? The MACD is ugly too, so I want to be alert to any ‘changes’ that take place when Bitcoin should be at the lows & ready to run higher. This was kind of ugly, let me show you one possibility….
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let me show you one possibility:
That ‘double top’ in IREN above might be the start of a consolidation of those recent gains. That price action can be seen with CDE, when it also double topped after a run higher and the MACD was weaker at the 2nd highs. It has chopped sideways to reach that 50sma again. It is possible that the crypto area could chop for a while too.
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CLSK – Some of the ‘laggers’ like CLSK, MARA, RIOT, etc might start to perk up, we’ll see. CLSK seems to find support at the $14 and $16 area, so this may be an area that you want to buy with a stop? That said, I really need to…
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I need to watch this sector and see if these crypto stocks will start to Rally and make gains again, or is there possibly something else going on here? These Crypto related stocks have been extremely Bullish as Bitcoin sold off, several of them doubled since May, so I was hoping for a Major rally after Bitcoin bottomed. That COULD still be the case, but I want to watch this sector and see if it can put in some reversals and gain some upside momentum.
