Thursday July 4th – What’s Up?
The Data on Wednesday helped the markets to Pop, and the Precious Metals Sector was on board for the ride too, but that was not the only input into the markets. Fed chairman Powell actually spoke on Tuesday morning and after his speech was presented, the feeling was that we could see a rate cut as soon as September. On Wednesday the FOMC Minutes were released and they didn’t change that line of thinking. With the hope of a possible rate cut in September, we saw surprises to the upside in these bullish markets. Will it be a 1 day pop for Gold & Silver like a knee jerk reaction (?), or can these markets find ‘follow through’? Time will tell, let’s go to the charts.
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SPX – I have mentioned the ‘timing’ for a dcl here, but these markets went sideways for over 2 weeks and then popped higher this week. I did find something interesting though…
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The SOXX dipped sharply recently, and it DID turn the 10sma lower. This looks like a dcl.
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The SOXX seems to have put in a dcl, so could it be that the dip in the SPX & NASDAQ was a dcl presented by sideways weakness? It honestly doesn’t seem likely, but with the SOXX I do see a 5 wave run and a dip into a dcl, so as mentioned before: ‘If you are long, stay long and raise stops until the ride is finished.’ And I also mentioned…
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And I also mentioned that when I look back at the longer-term Bull Market, at times the dips were shallow and it was hard to see a dcl on the run higher. We may be seeing this again. The SOXX may be identifying a dcl.
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WTIC – Oil is having a nice strong move out of the ICL, and it just continues on with an occasional down day.
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The USD – read the chart.
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The FED spoke on Tuesday and then on Wednesday the Data backed the idea that we may see a rate cut as soon as September. GOLD really seems to have liked that.
1. SO IS IT JUST A 1 DAY POP? (It didn’t break above the 3rd daily cycle peak yet, so it still could just get choppy).
2. OR WILL WE SEE FOLLOW THROUGH AND A STRONG 4TH DAILY CYCLE RUN TO THE HIGHS?
3. STAY TUNED
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SILVER also strongly pushed higher, but if the dcl was June 17th as I was thinking it was, this would be day 14 and still have to climb higher to give us a new daily cycle high. We’ll see what happens. This does look strong though.
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GDX now has spiked up on day 11, and a 4% pop is a big pop for the GDX ETF. I’m watching that $36 area, to see if it can break higher than the last spike day on June 6th.
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Recall that yesterday I went through a number of Miners to show where their daily cycles lows appeared to be (Dcl’s) and June 17 was the consensus for many. Take a look at Barrick…
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BARRICK GOLD – I look at Barrick and it Popped 4% too.
1. June 17 was a day 29 low, so it appears to represent the dcl, and we are in daily cycle #4.
2. This is day 13, so it could become R.T. if it keeps running, but it could ‘peak’ if it is just a knee jerk reaction.
3. The 3rd daily cycle (for Barrick) peaked on day 12 and was l.t., so we would naturally expect this not to break that day 12 high. Again, we’ll see. These are the things that I am watching.
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Today is a holiday in the U.S., so the markets are closed on Thursday. This report will represent Friday, since I will be away for the next 4 days. I will look for Golds movement on Thursday and Friday to see if it looks like a renewed rally or a knee jerk reaction. Bitcoin broke to a new low, and that was one of the possibilities, so I will discuss that below. Have a GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE, and I will write a weekend report on Sunday evening, after I return home.
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~ALEX
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THIS IS WHAT I SAID ON WEDNESDAY MORNING:
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LIVE BITCOIN 6:30 am WEDNESDAY – Well here we go at 6:30 a.m. and Bitcoin continued to drop to about $60,000. If it back tests the lows and does not break the lows, we are on day 9 of a new daily cycle and day 54 was the dcl. IF THE LOWS BREAK, we are on day 63, but it should still bottom very soon.
BITCOIN Midnight – Bitcoin did break that day 54 low, so that should simply extend the count to day 64. That should not damage the set up, it could act as more of a ‘stop run’ by breaking those lows & recovering soon. It has not broken the last dcls lows (yet). A day 64 low really puts us in the timing for a dcl. Crypto stocks are still acting correctly, but they can become choppy under these conditions. Once Bitcoin rallies, the Miners should make a nice run higher.
