Thursday July 11th
DATA – Thursday and Friday are the real market moving data releases. The Fed pays careful attention to Employment and Inflation. These numbers could also dictate when the next rate cut will be likely to come into play.
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After our sideways box consolidation, The SPX made another new high. It is quite overbought, but this can go a little higher if we were to use a measured move.
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The SOXX looks clearer, and this would only be day 10 of a 2nd daily cycle.
I mentioned that NVDA ( plus GOOG, AMD, AAPL, and other reliable runners) was a buy at the reversal with SOXX.
NVDA – Old reliable continues to crawl higher.
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AMD was also a buy when it broke from the base. I mentioned that you could start small and buy if we get a dip.
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AMD hasn’t really dipped yet, it is most likely making its move to former highs.
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WTIC – Oil reversed at the 20 ema on day 24. This could be a half cycle dip, since Oils daily cycles can be 50 days long.
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GOLD remained above the 50sma and I am seeing more and more bullishness with the Miners as time pushes forward. Some are lagging, but others are quite strong! This long consolidation can be allowing Gold to build energy for a push higher too (inflation data could help). Recently I pointed out some bullish set ups. Well…
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AEM broke out to new highs after forming a Cup. The last 5 days (Since the Fed spoke and inflation dropped) pushed these higher.
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NGD also broke out to new highs after crawling along the 50sma and then forming a Cup. The last 5 days made the difference on many of these, when inflation was lower than expected and the fed Spoke on the subject.
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KGC also formed a cup , held at the 50sma, and has run to new highs . So some of these Miners are acting very bullishly on their own, but—-
IAG, HMY, NG, EGO, and others are just playing catch up over the last 5 days, since the Fed spoke & inflation data came out bullishly. Laggers can still be bought, and I’ll show you some in the Silver Miner area too, later in the report.
SILVER is on day 17 and it broke a downtrend (bullish) and looks to be forming a pennant now. Silver stocks are quite mixed, and I’ll discuss that soon.
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The GDX has also changed its character. It broke a downtrend and began to break prior ‘peaks’. It is almost at new highs ….while forming a cup (sound familiar?). The last 5 days has been bullish here too.
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So let’s talk about Silver Miners for a minute. Some have rocketed higher and others are lagging, but could quickly play catch up, so let’s take a look.
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Look at the last 5 days for EXK. This was in a downward sloping channel, but it broke out 5 days ago and chopped for 4 days until Wednesday. Booom, up 16%. This is a leader and it reversed right at the 50sma.
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GATO – Look at the last 5 days for GATO. It broke a downtrend, chopped for a few days, and BOOOM! Up 21%. So that is the pattern for the explosive Silver stocks. What are the laggers doing?
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HL looks just like EXK and GATO did over the past 4 days when they broke their downtrend. Now that it broke the 50sma, it COULD take off too. It is a bullish set up.
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AG has chopped higher for the last 5 days, after breaking a downtrend. Sound familiar? It is under the 50sma, but it also could break out and run.
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FSM is the real lagger:
It has chopped sideways and this has waited for you to be able to buy it. It is not extended or overbought, but it does look ready to pop with that MACD cross and push above the 50sma. FSM may even give us an Island Bottom if it gaps higher with the Inflation numbers.
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We have some important inflation related data being released on Thursday and Friday, and recently this has resulted in a bullish reaction to the upside. We’ll see if that happens at 8:30 a.m. today too. Last week and this week I mentioned that when things become this bullish at a time when we should be seeing a pullback by defying cycle expectations, you just have to go with it and maybe enter smaller positions with a stop. So far, that has been working out. I will cover bitcoin and a few EV related stocks below too. Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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Bitcoin does still seem to have bottomed out on day 65. It has been moving slowly higher, and yet as mentioned yesterday, Crypto related stocks are dropping and not moving higher with Bitcoin. All we can do is watch this situation, use or raise stops if you are in any of these stocks, and see if it changes with Bitcoin breaking the downtrend.
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I have noticed some of the EV or EV Related (Battery, lithium, etc) Stoicks seem to be bottoming and moving higher. These can be short term moves off of the lows/ base, or they can be the start of a move higher. Time will tell, but they may make for some good short term trades & gains. You can keep an eye on stocks like EVGO, BLNK, CHPT, LCID, POLA, OPTT, NKLA, NIO, AYRO, WKHS, etc . I will try to cover some below and in future reports.
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Recently I showed TSLA breaking out from one of those bases…
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TSLA certainly made the run higher out of that base.
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LCID was already pointed out as possibly breaking from a base here 3 days ago.
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LCID has continued to chop higher (slowly), and I have drawn the kind of path(s) that I expect. It seems to be forming a bullish flag, but it can drop to support and then continue higher.
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POLA has a long base and it just Popped yesterday. This was a 20% pop.
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EVGO was actually mentioned by me in the comments 2 days ago, as a bullish set up that I liked. Unfortunatlkey I didn’t buy this one and it continued to run out of that base and even had a nice Pop yesterday. These d look to be moving out of their bases and heading for recent highs.
Then I looked at some of the bigger picture charts and the bases look very good. This is a weekly chart of BLNK, and it has now moved above the 10 & 30 week ma. That is considered bullish. This makes these look like possible ‘Buy and Hold’ candidates.
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WKHS – This is not ‘healthy’ yet, but it did a reverse split and SOMETIMES these will gain buyers in a bullish sector and just take off higher. Consider this one a little higher risk, possible big reward.
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YGMZ– This also had a reverse split that can power it higher, especially with that reversal and volume.
