June 9th Weekend Review – Recent Volatility – What’s Next

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SPX Daily- I have mentioned a possible 5 wave up into the Fed Mtg. We ‘stalled’ on Friday, and it should be known that this right here MIGHT be 5 waves complete, or we continue higher into the Fed and then drop into a dcl. Basically, we need to prepare mentally for a dip.

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THE WEEKLY NASDAQ CHART remains bullish and you can see that

1. The dips to the dcl can drop to the 10 week MA, and

2. The Dips to an ICL can reach the 30 week ma or more. Please see the chart.

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NASDAQ – So the bull case is a dip to the 10 week ma as a dcl, and then we go higher with the 2nd daily cycle.

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NASDAQ – Considering that Dow Theory possibility (Which still has not corrected itself ), we would want to be aware of this 2nd daily cycle ‘peaking’ or topping early. I am drawing a choppy top, and this could develop based on what the Fed says and does going forward. Please see the chart and the prior top. 

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LAST WEEK I DISCUSSED THAT OIL IS ONLY ON DAY 33 Friday, but they often drop into day 45-50 or so.

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So I said, ” We are seeing the bounce in Oil, but at day 32, this is more than likely to drop lower over time.”

WTIC WEEKLY – With that Bounce that we had last week, we got a weekly reversal candle. Since I think that it is too early for a dcl, I looked back to see if Oil has ever put in a weekly reversal and continued lower?  The answer is yes, pleases see the chart. I still think that Oil will pop, chop, and drop lower.

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USD DAILY – The USD may have put in a dcl on Friday with that large reversal.  Now we have to see if this daily cycle stalls & chops around and rolls over into another drop lower (ICL), or does it just run higher?  I did want to point out that The USD rose up in Feb to May time period, see the chart.

 

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GOLD DAILY– Gold rallied in the Feb to May time period, so they can, at times, run together for a small period of time.  That said, let’s go back to the USD…

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THE USD WEEKLY shows signs of following the Feds Rate hike or cut policy. Please read the chart.

1. The Hikes rallied the USD,

2. The Pause or talk of ‘cuts’ dropped the USD.

3. FRIDAY there was discussion that the Fed has to again push cuts forward, due to the economic data. If that rallies the USD, it can affect Golds drop.

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GOLD DAILY– Gold sold off sharply on Friday. This was day 24 on this chart , but it was day 25 on spot gold. That means that the Fed day is day 27 or 28. A dcl will be coming due, so we bottom right after the fed or we MIGHT sell off with the Fed for a day or 2 after, and then move higher out of a dcl.

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GOLD DAILY– A bounce into the Fed could give false hope & then drop into that DCL. Please read the chart. Clicking on the chart will enlarge it.

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GOLD DAILY– We are on the 3rd daily cycle and a 4th is also possible to get us to an ICL. Please read the chart.

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GOLD DAILY– I discussed this possibility as notable, but also as ‘Less Likely’.

It would be 4 VERY LONG daily cycles from Oct, with 1/2 cycle lows. This could put us 8 months ahead of the OCT ICL. It seems less likely because the #2 long daily cycle would have peaked early (L.T.).

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SO REALISTICALLY, THIS IS MOST LIKELY THE CORRECT COUNT:

GOLD DAILY– We are on the 3rd daily cycle and a 4th is also possible to get us to an ICL. Please read the chart.

SILVER WEEKLY – I’m showing a bounce with the 4th daily cycle, and a final drop into an ICL for Silver. This is also a ‘back-test’ of a breakout in technical analysis. The Weekly Silver Chart is overbought. 

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GDX WEEKLY – Nothing actually has changed with Miners, since I pointed this out a few times. GDX could not convincingly breakout here, so a pullback to build energy (into an ICL) could recharge the energy and drain away the sentiment. The Weekly GDX is overbought.

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We had some volatile movement last week, with the conflicting data. We saw a rally on Thursday and a crash down on Friday with the Precious Metals, but we are expecting that drop around the Fed anyway. This week we’ll see how things play out, and much may have to do with Chairman Powells speech and what he says about Rate Cuts and Inflation.  This week could be choppy, so invest and trade accordingly. Enjoy your Sunday Evening!

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~ALEX

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PLEASE RECALL WHAT I SAID ON FRIDAY:

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BITCOIN is back at the highs and we’ve been waiting for a breakout that could happen at any time. We also may dip a little, before that breakout. Please read the chart.

BITCOIN – So that pullback has not hurt anything at this point. I’d like to see a push higher and a breakout this week though. We are past the 30 day mid cycle point.