Thursday June 27th – Waiting To Buy The Dips

DATA – Todays data is the kind that will move the General Markets, the question is: Will it move it higher or lower? I’ll show you why it is hard to say for sure with the General Markets, but we are waiting to buy the dips in Precious Metals ( & Crypto related stocks may be done dipping lower too), so let’s look at the charts…

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SPX – I was looking at this as all one daily cycle with a day 29 1/2 cycle low. We HAVE had 35 day daily cycles and we have had day 50 daily cycles, so it is a tough call.

If this is all one daily cycle, we are due for a dip into a dcl, and this would be 5 waves up. We could dip lower with the data today or yesterday. If day 29 was a dcl, and now a 1/2 cycle low, then we are on day …

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SPX – If that was a day 29 dcl, then this would be day 17 of the 2nd daily cycle and it could go higher or dip lower. It has been holding the 8ema or 10 sma, so it is on support as of yesterday. We’ll see what the DATA does.

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WTIC – Oil has moved out of an ICL and is only on day 15 of a possible 45-50 day daily cycle. It is getting choppy, but it definitely can go higher.

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THE XLE was rejected at the 50sma (so far) and still has not broken out, in fact it pulled back. That is actually a good opportunity to buy if you wanted to try to ride this sector. GUSH is the leveraged ETF. XLE is ahead of the XOP…

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THE XOP has reversed at the downtrend line. We do see a bullish MACD cross over, so it is likely just a matter of time before it starts to follow Oil higher.

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THE USD has been chopping higher and is POSSIBLY forming a bearish rising wedge.  Even if that rising wedge negates, this rise by the USD is not causing gold to fall at the same rate. Gold has chopped sideways, as you’ll see. So notice that the USD has been rising for 14 days —

 

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GOLD has chopped sideways. I do expect lower prices over time, and right now I think that Gold is on day 12 of a 4th daily cycle, with a day 9 peak.

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SILVER has chopped sideways, and this indecision is making it very difficult to see where the dcl is, but I marked an arrow 8 days ago and we have a peak, so far, on day 5.

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GDX lost the 50sma and has been struggling under that 50sma ever since. I would be surprised if the GDX ETF could get back over the 50sma. I expect more weakness.

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Let’s see what the Data does to the futures at 8:30 am ET today. I have a general doctors appt at 9 a.m., so I’ll be away from my desk for a while this morning. Enjoy your Thursday trading.

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN REVIEW:

I have discussed the recent low on day 54 as being slightly early, but possibly a dcl. I am looking for a break or rejection at the downtrend line.

 

SO THIS WAS THE 4 HOUR CHART FOR BITCOIN YESTERDAY – That bounce out of the low has begun.

If this is a DCL, then this would be a false break down and recovery, then you’d look for that downtrend break. If you bought this low, you could also sell some at the downtrend (if we get there) and add back in if we then get the breakout. It looks like $64,000 Bitcoin is the point of interest.

 

 

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BITCOIN DAILY WEDNESDAY : Bitcoin broke down and has recovered and today it is pausing so far. That would be a day 54 low, and that might be the dcl, since it formed as a high volume plunge and the selling has now dried up. Time will tell.

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BITCOIN DAILY THURSDAY : Bitcoin has not made any progress yet. Bitcoin can chop at the lows before moving higher, so we’ll just have to wait and see if

1. This is a bear flag and we get 1 final drop into a day 60 or so dcl.

2. This moves higher from here as a day 54 dcl and today is day 3.

3. You can easily see a long drop in Bitcoin, but MANY crypto Miners are doing the exact opposite.