Friday June 14th

/in /by

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THE SPX almost made a new high on Thursday, which means that on day 38, this first daily cycle has formed as R.T. (as expected).  Good gains have been made out of the ICL, but as a reminder, we are coming due for a dip into a dcl and we do seem to have 5 waves up that will be completing soon.

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The USD moved higher on Thursday and it did close above the 34 sma (& 50sma not shown), so this is showing strength and is likely a dcl with that new low strong reversal 5 days ago. Today would be day 5.  If we break above the blue line, the USD would appear to have an ICL, and I wasn’t quite expecting that yet, but it seems that the USD is gaining strength.

 

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WTIC – Oil remains at resistance

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GOLD #1- Gold dropped but it still has not broken below the last dcl. I do see a tag of the 50sma and reversal lower after the Fed, so I would still be expecting a drop lower below the blue line.

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GOLD #2 – Gold tagged the 50sma with what I pointed out as a bear flag look on day 27, so Thursday was day 28 and today is day 29. We still have a few days to drop if day 24 was not an early dcl. I think that we will drop into a deeper low below day 24.

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SILVER made a new low on Thursday and is dropping down into its next dcl. Let’s take another look at Silver…

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SILVER – The cycle count finds us at day 29 and it was moving higher after the Fed Wednesday Mtg, but was capped at the 10sma, which has curled lower. A break & close above that 10sma should signal a dcl. Look at past dcls and you’ll see that you had time to enter every time it formed a dcl.

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GDX #1 –  I just drew this count as something to keep in mind, and it highlights that the Miners have now become weaker than Silver and Gold to even show this as a possibility.  That said, I DO NOT really think that this is the current count.  It would be a failed daily cycle and it would lead miners into an ICL in a 4th daily cycle, but with Gold & Silver holding up, it is less likely.  The one that is most likely the true set up is the following chart…

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GDX #2 – So it looks like Miners are weaker than Gold & Silver as they break down on day 36 with new lows. GDX has now spent 5 days under the 50sma, even with the post Fed Mtg pop on Wedneday, so the drop into a dcl shows the weakness of Miners.  GDX is due for a dcl at any time.

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GDX #3 – So a move & close above the 10sma should signal a dcl this late in the count. I must say that this next daily cycle is likely a 4th and final daily cycle, which means we’d bounce, see weakness develop, and drop into a final dcl (ICL), which would be a VERY GOOD BUY POINT.

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It was a Fed week, and the General Markets popped higher and even with the sluggish reaction by Gold, Silver, and The Miners, everything remains bullish.  This should just be short term weakness seen in Precious Metals, and it helps to lower sentiment, it may draw people into shorting the Miners, and then when we get an ICL, we could see a strong short covering rally out of a new longer term low. You can buy the next DCL, but we always keep in mind that we could be seeing a weaker 4th daily cycle, so keep it on a short leash with stops. I will cover bitcoin below.

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NOTE:  I am returning from vacation Saturday and I will be travelling for most of the day, so the weekend report will be released on Sunday later in the day. Thanks, and have a great Friday & Weekend!

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~ALEX

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YESTRDAY I MENTIONED THIS ABOUT BITCOIN –

Right now Bitcoin is in a very large consolidation after a strong run up. 3 thoughts when I look at Bitcoin here:

1. This long consolidation could last for all of the 60 day daily cycle, or it can break out.

2. I roughly look for 30 & 60 day lows. I had mentioned a long time ago that a day 42 low just seems too early, and then it formed a small triangle. I said that with Gold those can be where a stealth dcl forms.  That happened around day 52 and then it surged higher.

3. If that is where I start my count ( at the Triangle apex), we would be at day 31 with that recent low, and that is normal. Now we just have to see if this will breakout and run or just continue chopping sideways, so nothing has changed with Bitcoin yet.

BITCOIN –

1. You can clearly see the MACD marking the lows as a nice buy point 3 times on this chart.

2. Right now The MACD is showing weakness at the highs of this consolidation. That CAN change with a breakout, but we would need to start seeing a move higher shortly, because we are trading  30 plus days out of the low. My thoughts on this becoming a long sideways intermediate cycle consolidation could fulfill, with a dip into day 60 eventually taking place.

3. Crypto miners are ‘holding up’, but so is Bitcoin as it trades near the highs.

4. If it breaks out, miners will break out, but if it doesn’t and drops into day 60? Miners will sell down too, and they can really move, so a drop to the lows of this consolidation would not even be one that I want to ride in a basket. We need a breakout soon here.