Friday May 10th – Hold On!
Todays Data consists of Consumer Sentiment at 10 a.m. ET. It may or may not change anything at this point. We had the follow through from the Jobless Claims
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SPX – We did see some upside after the Jobless Claims , as expected. This is only day 14 out of an ICL, so we should have plenty more upside over time. If you didn’t buy in at the lows or down at the 50sma as a low risk entry with a stop, there is another possible low risk entry…
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I noticed that The SOXX is actually still under the 50sma, so it seems to be lagging. You could buy it with a stop under the green 20 ema or even wait for a break of the 50sma and place a stop there. With this set up, SOXL could become a good trade, but only for short periods of time.
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WTIC – Oil tried to bounce, but now its under the 20 ema, and the 50 & 200sma. I have stated in recent reports that Oil was a bit confusing. It looked like a dcl at the 50sma, and the timing was perfect at day 53. So is this a 3rd daily cycle failing after a dcl at the 50sma? Or is it a very long 2nd daily cycle trying to dcl. Let me draw it up…
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WTIC – So again,
1. It looked like a dcl at the 50sma, and the timing was perfect at day 53.
2. So was that a peak on day 4 (?) and this a 3rd daily cycle failing after a dcl at the 50sma?
3. Or is it a very long 2nd daily cycle trying to dcl at day 65? THE BIG REASON why I question Oil here is simply because…
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THE BIG REASON why I question Oil here is simply because the Oil Stocks do look ok…
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XOP – Oil stocks ran higher with the General Markets, so this might be indicating that the oil Market will bottom too. IN MY OPINION, THERE ARE BETTER TRADES AVAILABLE. Oil dropping & Oil Stocks running higher—It really just isn’t clear, and the better clearer trades right now are the General Markets, Precious Metals, and likely the Crypto market very soon.
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GOLD – HEY!! We got our POP in Gold on day 4. Notice how price bullishly climbed right up that 34 sma. We were just waiting for some buying to push us away from that dcl and confirm a swing low by closing convincingly above the 10sma. Gold gave us plenty of time there to build a basket of miners…again. 🙂
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This is what I mentioned in yesterdays report. Silver had an obvious swing low at day 25…
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SILVER is more convincing with a day 25 low and this would be day 5 trying to make a new 5 day high.
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SILVER surged again on day 5 and when Silver is ready to go—it Goes! Very nice.
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GDX – The Miners followed through higher and this has been a nice consolidation to break out from. With Gold and Silver only on day 4 & 5, they can run through next week and only be on day 10 and 11. Miners should make a run higher from here, simply based on the past 2 runs from those consolidations and the dcls in both Gold & Silver.
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KGC – This was posted to show a strong Miner(near the highs) as it released an earnings beat. So…
KGC – The follow through has been great. So far the ones that beat estimates are doing very well.
EXK released earnings and did a small gap open, but it just kept on climbing all day long. HL & PAAS did this too, so the Miners that are releasing good earnings are a nice target once they start moving higher. I say that because MUX released bad earnings and gapped down and sold off all day to ‘down 15%’.
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PAAS did an 11% pop with earnings too, so the Silver stocks are starting to fly with the Silver move.
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THIS IS WHY WE WANTED TO BUY A BASKET OF MINERS AHEAD OF TIME. When a dcl is in place and these just take off, it is hard to get onboard at that point.
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OR – I wanted to point out another Gold Stock where earnings were released and it is starting to move higher. Osisko has now regained the 50sma after crawling along under it for over a week, and it broke the downtrend line on Thursday.
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This was supposed to be in yesterday’s report and I forgot to include it, but it was also to show that BTG released earnings when it was at the lows, but it then popped higher. It is oversold.
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GOLD LIVE 6 a.m. Friday Morning:
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Again, THIS IS WHY WE WANTED TO BUY A BASKET OF MINERS AHEAD OF TIME. When a dcl is in place and this sector takes off, it is hard to get onboard at that point. I know that at this point most if not every one of you is holding a basket though, so congratulations on a great week in this sector!
Please take note: I think that it was in the last weekend report that I looked at the weekly charts of Gold and when I saw the spike higher & reverse lower week, I said that Gold may not make new highs on this 3rd dcl, we’d just have to wait and see. Often those spike reversal candles lead to a consolidation. At this point, on day 5, I think that it is safe to say Gold could easily break out to new highs and run higher. With that, this 3rd daily cycle might also even become Right Translated, while the 4th daily cycle peaks as L.T., so at this point it may be best to just ride this out next week as mentioned yesterday, and we’ll look for signs that things might be slowing down as time goes on.
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The General Markest are also bullish, so let’s just Enjoy our bull run trading!
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~ALEX
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FROM YESTERDAY ON DAY 50:
BITCOIN is on day 50 and was rejected at the 50sma twice. I am expecting this to be the final drop and that low should become a nice buying opportunity. These lows often come around day 60ish, and the last one was on day 57, so Bitcoin could see a low within a week or so. I have pointed out that I DO feel that we are seeing the crypto miners starting to bottom ahead of Bitcoin.
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BITCOIN: Day 50 actually saw Bitcoin surge higher and now we are on day 51. My expectations have to be for 1 more drop, but as I mentioned in the last few reports, the Crypto stocks could be bottoming ahead of Bitcoin. Yesterday we saw 2 earnings releases that looked quite impressive to me (MARA & CLSK), and these are 2 of the 4 stocks that I pointed out as possibly already bottoming.
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MARA – This is what was reported by MARA, and we’ll see what it does on Friday. It dipped lower in after hrs and then started to recover.
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THIS WAS IN YESTERDAYS REPORT:
I pointed out that when Bitcoin made that lower low on day 42, MARA had made a higher low and yesterday it dropped and recovered. MARA does have earnings after the bell today, so that may cause one more drip or it may prevent one more dip.
CLSK: This was impressive to me too
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FROM MONDAY: I pointed out the $15 mark on CLSK. I said…
CLSK also had a higher low recently, and I find this set up is interesting. $15 was support. That last low in April actually back-tested the prior highs near $14 (that is normal), and it broke the $15 support area that has held up in the past. This makes me wonder if that $14 low is the final low and $15 will hold up when Bitcoin drops again.
