Wednesday April 17 – The Beige Book
DATA : The only Data during todays market hours is the release of The Fed Beige Book. This is definitely a market mover, so keep that 2 p.m. hr in mind. The Beige Book is a report published by the Fed about the economy and affects their decisions.
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FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT:
THE SOXX is on day 18, so it could bounce at any time as a half cycle low, but the bounce should be a good shorting opportunity. We could back test the 50sma, and then Perma bulls would think that the markets just cannot drop, so they will start buying, but institutions will sell into that bounce.
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SOXX – So again, the daily cycle is only about 1/2 way complete, and it could go in any direction.
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THE SPX is 1/2 way through the 3rd daily cycle, so it could bounce at any time, but it doesn’t have to. Take a look at the Stochastics and yes, it is oversold, but look to the left and we see that things can remain oversold as a sell off takes place.
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WTIC – Oil is due for a dcl and the timing is right here. I would like to see more of a dip below that 20 ema to give confidence that the dcl is behind us. This does NOT really fit the description of a dcl yet.
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THE USD moved higher, but so did Gold, so this still isn’t all that important to the Precious Metals bull run at this time.
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GOLD has continued higher after bouncing off of the 10 sma. I do not expect Gold to make a new high, but I actually did mention that we could see a bounce like this after that price spike. I mentioned that this bounce is a valid possibility. This bounce is good because it keeps price high while it eats up ‘time’ in the daily cycle. It then has a chance to drop into a shallow dcl.
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SILVER also bounced on Monday, but then it dropped on Tuesday, which should be day 13. That is early in the daily cycle, so we would want this to chop around up here and churn sideways, as mentioned in the weekend report.
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GDX – So with Golds 2 day bounce and Silvers Monday bounce, we see that the Miners have just been selling down each day this week, but now it looks like they may have found some support?
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GDX – Day 18 would be VERY early for a dcl though, so I would expect maybe a bounce off of that support and then another dip into the real dcl.
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We want to remember that at 2 p.m. ET we have the release of the Beige book, and that may almost be like having a Fed Mtg. The markets may change direction or surge in the direction that they are heading in, if something unexpected is found and discussed there. Right now, Gold & Silver have been holding up exceptionally well and remain very bullish. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – This was day 27 on Tuesday and we are within the timing for a day 30 half cycle low, but so far the low is on day 24. That may be good enough since price is still down in this area. I just have to mention again that if that day 57 DCL is broken decisively, we have a failed daily cycle and Bitcoin could sell off to a much deeper low over the 60 day cycle.
I DREW THAT IDEA HERE YESTERDAY SAYING:
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We have the Halving ahead this week…
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If we see Bitcoin breaking that day 57 low, it is a failed daily cycle and could give us the next 30 days as a choppy drop lower to support and into an ICL. $45,000 to $53000 area is not out of the equation, and this might be where the Crypto Miners start to bottom out and perk up again. We just have to let things play out and see where the next buy opportunity develops.
