Thursday April 18th
DATA – In the recent past, the initial jobs report seems to always cause the markets to move higher. We used to get an upside rally on Thursday and into Friday during the bull market, but are we due for a bounce now? Let’s take a look…
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Yes, we could be due for a bounce here:
NASDAQ – The markets sold off on Wednesday, but yes, they do look due for a half cycle low. I have added a new parallel channel possibility too, now that we lost the narrow red trendline of the stronger bull run. The moving averages and that trend line could be support. Take a look at the stochastics and you’ll see that ‘lows’ do form in this area too.
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THE SPX has also dropped to a possible support area and a bounce could come after the Jobless Claims Report. Take a look at the stochastics and you’ll see that ‘lows’ do form in this area too.
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FROM YESTERDAY:
WTIC – Oil is due for a dcl and the timing is right here. I would like to see more of a dip below that 20 ema to give confidence that the dcl is behind us. This does NOT really fit the description of a dcl yet.
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WTIC – Oil dropped below the 20 ema and is now looking more like the drop into a dcl, and at day 50, any reversal /swing low would likely be that dcl. The 50sma is currently right below price. USO & UCO are Oil trades, along with the Oil Stocks.
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In a recent report I mentioned that a drop into a dcl for the XOP could become a back test and a good entry too. Guess what the overbought breakout of The XOP did this week? It is dropping and may back test the recent breakout. So OIL STOCKS and GUSH are pulling back for another buy opportunity for those interested.
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The XOP (SHOWN USING GUSH) is almost at the 34 sma or 50sma and those are also 38% and 50% pull backs.
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THE USD dropped on Wednesday.
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GOLD popped and dropped on Wednesday and it closed down almost $20 for the day. It is great that Gold has held up into day 18, but a good drop into a dcl will make the buying opportunity of a dcl much clearer.
1. I call this day 18 based on the breakout of the wedge as the dcl.
2. The absolute lowest low was 2 days before that, so you COULD call it day 20 off of the lows too, but…
3. Silver actually kept dropping and bottomed AFTER the spike breakout of Gold, so I have left this as day 18 using the breakout day the way that I aways have.
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SILVER was up 2 cents on this chart, but it was dropping and as the day progressed it sold off a bit further. I’d like to see a drop to support for a buying DCL on Silver too. Is a drop to $26 too much to ask? I don’t think so.
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GDX bounced off of the 20 ema. I am hoping that we are seeing an a-b-c down style drop into a dcl. I will say this though, a few ‘individual miners’ look really nice in their current consolidation. I’ll point out a couple below.
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IAG -You can see that instead of a drop straight down like the miners used to sell off, they have been bullishly consolidating the recent gains for 2-3 weeks sideways and are currently sitting at the 20 ema. That is where the last dcl turned up, so maybe this time they run sideways until the 50sma catches up.
KGC has also spent the last 2+ weeks simply going sideways too. It also is at the 20 ema. This is bullish price action for the Miners and again, maybe the dcl will be at the 50sma, which is rising. Several Silver Miners are also tagging the 20ema currently.
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GOLD LIVE 6 A.M.: Gold is up this morning and so far it has been holding up using the 10sma as support. I expected a small bounce after the Gold Spike Price, due to cycle timing, but this should still dip lower and break that 10sma to give us a dcl. This should be day 20 or 22 (following that wedge).
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We are possibly due for a half cycle low or a bounce in the General Markets and we’ll see if the Precious Metals Miners bounce or not also. Enjoy your Thursday trading.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – Using a chart like this, I had been discussing that a break of the day 57 low would be a failed daily cycle. We could then see a half cycle low or bounce, but I would have to expect that the drop into the 60 day low would be a downtrend. At day 28 price was barely holding up…
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BITCOIN – Yesterday that day 57 low was taken out. Now we could get a bounce out of the half cycle low, but I do not expect new highs. We then would have a da 19 peak, a L.T. Daily Cycle, and a more prolonged drop, as mentioned in past reports…
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I DREW THAT IDEA WITH THIS CHART:
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We have the Halving ahead this week. That may now cause a short term bounce, but…
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We have now seen Bitcoin break that day 57 low, it is a failed daily cycle, and could give us the next 30 days as a choppy drop lower to support and into an ICL. $45,000 to $53000 support areas are not out of the question, and this might be where the Crypto Miners start to bottom out and perk up again. We just have to let things play out and see where the next buy opportunity develops.
