Thursday April 11th – Choppiness

DATA – Yesterdays data showed that inflation returned and all sectors of the markets initially all took a hit as hopes for a rate cut were pushed off to MAYBE the end of the year instead of this summer. Todays data is also a market mover. Jobless claims and more inflation data will be released today.

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So when we look at The DOW, we do see what looks to be a failed daily cycle, so the 3rd daily cycle has peaked and we will most likely chop lower with small rallies in between.  The dow closed down 422, but it was down more than that at one point.

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THE SPX has not failed yet, but it dropped on the news and is also showing signs of topping and that goes for the NASDAQ and The SOXX too.

 

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WTIC – Oil actually pushed higher, but it is coming due for a dcl and I am not seeing one here yet, so I would expect a dip lower sooner than later with Oil.

 

 

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The USD SURGED on the news that inflation rose and the Fed will not be cutting rates this summer. This gave us higher lows and higher highs

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GOLD did not slam down as the USD surged, so that is the good news. It may be ‘peaking’ in this area, since we do see a 1 x 1 move complete. The cycle count is tricky, because you can either count from the lowest point in the midpoint pennant, or you can count the day 25 surge as day 1. That is only a 2 candle difference, so I’ve been using the day 25 break out candle (Silver bottomed after that) and would give us day 16 today. We have been getting dcls anywhere in the day 23+ area lately.

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SILVER ran from that Feb low to a day 28 low. From that point we are only 9 days ahead of ot, so Gold & Silver are not in sync, but it is good to see that Silver did not slam down as the USD surged either. We could get a 1/2 cycle dip though, since we do see a doji.

The GDX dropped to the 10sma and tried to recover. If we do a separate cycle count here, we saw a 25 day count for that first daily cycle, and now we are on day 14 yesterday from that low point midway through this move. Miners were mixed after the data yesterday, where most went red, but some recovered…

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EXK dropped and was able to recover, for example.

 

And I had pointed USAS out as a lagger last week. It was tucked into the apex of a wedge, just like AG had been before it broke out and moved higher. So far in the 3 days of this week, USAS is up almost 15%, so congrats if you took that trade.

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So the data released yesterday hinted at stronger inflation and less likely to see a rate cut by the Fed before the US Elections. That took a bite out of the Bull Run and was viewed as Good for the USD and bad for the current bull runs, but when we look at Gold, Silver, and The Miners – the dip was normal and minor so far and not anything unusual. Today we have very similar data to be released with the PPI, so buckle your seat belts and we’ll see if the Jobless Claims can help the markets to bounce back a little. The markets may be starting to peak in this current daily cycle. Enjoy your Thursday trading!

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN – The blue triangle showed us a bitcoin breakout at day 19, but because there was no follow through, I raised up the upper line and see that this could actually make a larger triangle. That isn’t really all that surprising, because I mentioned earlier this month that we could see a larger consolidation and…

I DREW THIS ON APRIL 2 & wrote in yesterdays report:

It is possible that the triangle we now see will fade away over time, and this consolidation will become what I originally mentioned as something that we could see. If THIS were to happen, it would explain why we aren’t seeing the Miners run, and it would also cause the ETFs to simply be a choppy ride for a while too. Again, I am keeping an eye on this everyday, along with the Miners like MARA, HUT, RIOT, CLSK, WULF, etc.