April 27th Weekend Report – Are You Ready?
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SPX DAILY – This is a tough call. As you know,
1. I was thinking of shorting the bounce, looking for a possible 50 day daily cycle with this recent low being a half cycle low.
2. I also discussed shorting if this becomes a 5 wave drop, but this week the bounce was fast and rather strong looking, recovering after that sharp drop.
3. Is it just an a-b-c down and done, with a normal 30+ day daily cycle? I decided not to short this going into the weekend, mainly because of what I’ll show you on the weekly chart. I will be watching it for clues on Monday and Tuesday though (look at the RSI & MACD too).
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SPX WEEKLY – This weekly chart shows the strength of that reversal, doesn’t it? True, we have seen these fall back lower before, but until I see a reversal from this bounce, I am not comfortable shorting into the weekend.
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SOXX WEEKLY – When I looked at the SOXX (& Nasdaq), the reversal out of the lows last week did look quite strong. It pretty much erased the crash down low.
.I couldn’t go comfortably short here, but maybe at the FOMC Meeting?
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WTIC WEEKLY – Oil did put in a dcl at the 10 week ma and now it could run to that $93 area in this 3rd daily cycle. Trading USO, UCO, The XOP (GUSH) and several Oil Stocks has been a recommendation in the weekday reports, which have been doing well.
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USD WEEKLY – The USD has paused and chopped sideways. In the daily action, it has NOT affected Gold whether it rises or drops lately.
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GOLD WEEKLY – I was ‘slightly’ concerned when I saw Golds weekly chart. Usually this candle is very bullish at the lows, but this weekly candle is toppy after a run up. We should be at a dcl and the start of a 3rd daily cycle on the daily -so I started to think that maybe Gold does a little bit of a ‘double top’ with the 3rd daily cycle. THAT could take 3 week of time and give us a higher high before dipping down into an ICL.
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A BITCOIN CANDLE SIMILAR TO GOLDS NOW? – I even looked for a strong run up with a similar candle in Bitcoin, to see if a strong bull run would show ‘continuation’, and I found this, which is quite similar to Gold.
This, like Gold, was a strong weekly run up. A dip into that reversal candle (Green arrow), yet the next week was up nicely. A DCL in Gold should have Gold up nicely next week too. And then you can see that 3 weeks of choppy sideways price action was what following that candle, Bitcoin then started to dip lower. We could see that with Golds 3rd daily cycle.
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I was happy with that Bitcoin chart, but I wanted to look at other strong bull runs too. I wanted to see if I see a run up, and a reversal candle like that at the high that still continued higher. So I looked at the strong Bull run in Gold when it came out of the 2008 crash to 2011 highs…
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GOLD WEEKLY OUT OF THE 2008 Crash – I found some similar set ups that were able to continue higher. So I am satisfied that with our 3rd daily cycle due, that candle really may not mean very much. We should move higher soon, but how do you think Gold did last week?…
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GOLD WEEKLY – Gold was down $66 for the week, but we were falling into a dcl, and I said that I actually think we have a dcl in place. I admonished buying Miners last week from Wednesday onward.
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SILVER WEEKLY – Silver has that same candle that shows up when the run is tired, and Silver was down over 5.52% last week. These were pretty deep drops into the dcl, yet I was admonishing buying Miners last week? Am I crazy?…
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GDX WEEKLY – This is a VERY Different picture for GDX, isn’t it? Gold was down $66, Silver down over 5%, and the Miners did a back test of a breakout, and rallied back up to green, up 1.5% for the week. I had mentioned in my reports that I feel Miners are leading the way and that they have their dcl in place…
MINERS VS GOLD – And now we see at the end of the week that Miners are DEFINITELY leading the Metals. I also said in my reports that IF GOLD RUNS UP ON SUNDAY NIGHT, MINERS WILL GAP UP, and it will be too hard to buy then, so get that basket set up.
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IAG WEEKLY – And then Miners started to flip up higher. This would be a bullish reversal at the 10 week ma.
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CDE WEEKLY – I looked at CDE and this is similar to that drop and reversal candle in Gold this week, after a strong run up. Take a look at this chart.
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Take a look at this chart of Gold again.
I see it as very Similar to CDE WEEKLY. So this is GOLD WEEKLY THIS WEEK…
THIS WAS CDE WEEKLY – It looks just like GOLD WEEKLY. Oh wait a minute, this was last week, check out the next chart…
CDE WEEKLY THIS WEEK: CDE dipped lower this week, but closed up 10% for the week. GOT MINERS?? 🙂
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MUX- Mux was up 10%, Gold was down $66.
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NEM- Isn’t it cool how Newmont broke out, back tested the 30 week and breakout, and then had an earnings beat that caused the rally continuation? I love that. Newmont was up 10%, Gold was down $66.
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I think you get the point: Miners were blasting off while Gold and Silver were still selling off. With the timing for a dcl in place and an unconfirmed swing low, I think that Miners or Oil Stocks are where you want to be for the next couple of weeks. We’ll see how the General Markets play out next week for a long or short possibility.
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OH YES, I KNOW…
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…But we could rally into the FOMC, hear him chatter about inflation, and then dip & run again or just keep on running. Or what if people were shorting Miners because Gold & Silver looks weak? If Gold then rallies Sunday night and Miners gap open on Monday, and shorts have to cover? That could be a strong rally from there into the FOMC Mtg.
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I can’t know for sure, but this report was designed to show you that Miners are leading the metals as of last week, and they may be leaving the station for the 3rd daily cycle’s run. As of Wednesday & Thursday, I own my basket of Miners again.
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Enjoy your weekend!!
~ALEX
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BITCOIN – Nothing has changed with Bitcoin. On day 38, We do still have time for a higher low and a quick rally until we start to approach the time for a day 60 dcl. So far the 50sma held price back and this may just chop and roll over. Crypto stocks have held up fairly well, so they may be sensing the next rally (either here or after day 60.
