Tuesday April 16th – Prices Going On Sale
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IN THE WEEKEND REPORT I MENTIONED THAT A CORRECTION HAD STARTED: I said…
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SPX WEEKLY – On a weekly Bull Run we often see the 10 & 30 ma hold as support, but we just closed under the 10 week ma, confirming that something is starting to change in our General Markets. This is not bearish, but a correction has started,…
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SPX – On Monday we got some follow through and the RSI broke the 50% line. Notice how the Prior March lows were broken too, that is where the SOXX had its visible DCL. I want to look at the NASDAQ and SOXX (for cycle counts).
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THE SOXX is on day 18, so it could bounce at any time as a half cycle low, but the bounce should be a good shorting opportunity. We could back test the 50sma, and then Perma bulls would think that the markets just cannot drop, so they will start buying, but institutions will sell into that bounce.
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THE NASDAQ broke the March lows too. These are considered failed daily cycles and start to trend lower. Please take note of the RSI and MACD changes too.
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As the SPX & NASDAQ crawled above the 50sma, The SQQQ was bullishly crawling under the 50sma too, but now it broke out on Monday. This was a buy on Friday or Monday, since we are expecting the sell off If the General Market bounces with a half cycle low and back tests the 50sma as mentioned above, that would offer another entry in SQQQ, SOXS, SPXS, etc.
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The USD paused, but we do see higher lows and higher highs, so the USD remains bullish. This is not hindering Gold & Silver so far.
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GOLD & SILVER actually really popped on Monday, right off of the 10sma, but you’ll see that the Silver stocks and Gold Miners didn’t follow.
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SILVER looked great, rising up 2.4% after bouncing right off of the 10sma. The problem is that Silver miners were all red. That is very disappointing, especially if some wanted to lighten up on a bounce.
Please read the chart.
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THE MINERS, or THE GDX ETF sold off sharply and then started to bounce back. It actually closed 1 penny under the 10sma. In my analysis, this is still preparing to sell off, even if it bounces.
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EXK – Was Silver up 2.4%? Miners are being sold off.
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BARRICK – Gold itself actually ran from a low of $2324 to $2392! THAT is a $68 move higher in Gold, and yet Gold stocks were Red & just not buying it.
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So we do see that The General Markets and our Miners started to drop lower, as expected. It is time to seek out a dcl and eventually an ICL over time. This can take some time, since there will often be bounces in between the dips and this kind of choppiness can make for boring times, unless you go short or day trade. Keeping the bigger picture in mind can help. We are looking forward to buying the next dcl in Miners, and that can be when the timing enters the day 20+ period, then we’ll see if the Miners can make new highs in the 3rd daily cycle.
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I drew this as a ‘possibility’ for the weekend report:
GDX looks to have peaked on day 16 and that should allow it to become a Right Translated Bullish daily cycle. A dip into the next dcl is to be expected, but it may chop around as buyers and sellers trade hands. Day 24 is written here, but as you know and as a reminder, it can extend beyond that. That is just to give you an idea of how things may play out.
I want to keep an eye on that relationships between Metals and Miners, since the Miners dropped yesterday. I would expect the Metals to drop soon too, and not make a new high yet. It will be interesting to see when or if the Miners starts to resist the selling. If the General Markets bounce, it could be a good place to take a SMALL trade with SQQQ, SOXS, SPXS as inverse ETFs short the markets. Stay tuned and Enjoy your Tuesday trading.
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~ALEX
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I just want to be clear on something here. We are scheduled for that ‘halving’ in Bitcoin later this week. Last year when I pictured how this would play out, I thought we might ‘peak’ and pull back after that halving, and then take off to new highs over $100,000. In the past in 2020 and 2016, we had huge rallies after the halving event, but not until we had a brief pause or consolidation period first. That said, WITH THIS CURRENT SET UP, I want to point something important out.
BITCOIN – Is close enough that a quick drop could cause it to fail. I expected a 1/2 cycle low somewhere roughly around day 30 and today is day 27. This low may be good enough and we could start to move higher, but just remember that if it breaks the day 57 lows, it is more likely to do that long consolidation that I mentioned, and Bitcoin could drop to the $48,000 support area. The Halving is also due around day 30, but I just wanted to be clear here that if this price breaks below day 57, that is a failed daily cycle. Expect lower prices if that happens, and the Crypto Miners are looking that way already.
BITCOIN on April 2nd:
I also wanted to point out that this triangle could simply become a longer consolidation, similar to what we saw with the long consolidations at the Red Down arrows on this chart. That means that the entire 60 day daily cycle could be a sideways choppy consolidation, as shown here and not a triangle breakout. I WANT TO ADD SOMETHING HERE…
I WANT TO ADD SOMETHING HERE: We have the Halving ahead this week…
If we see Bitcoin breaking that day 57 low, it is a failed daily cycle and could give us the next 30 days as a choppy drop lower to support and into an ICL. $45,000 to $53000 area is not out of the equation and this might be where the Crypto Miners start to bottom out and perk up again. We just have to let things play out and see where the next buy opportunity develops.
