April 10: Inflation

DATA– THIS data moves markets! It can move the General Markets, and it can move Precious Metals in either direction. Inflation at 8:30 and the Fed Discussion at 2 p.m. This info is often used to try to determine the Feds Interest rate decisions going forward. STAY FROSTY MY FRIENDS 🙂

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So with that DATA and this set up in the General Markets, you can see how The SOXX could go either way from here. I’ve used the SOXX  to point out the dcl, since the dip here was deep and obvious. The SOXX is on day 14 and it honestly, it could go either way with the release of that data. A break of the magenta arrow lows is short term bearish as a failed daily cycle.

 

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The NASDAQ also saw the 10sma curl lower near day 50 (normal timing, and even longer than normal really), so I chose that as the dcl with the SOXX. Whether we have a day 48 dcl or a recent day 61 dcl, this could still go either way too. The stochastic turned up and the RSI turned up around 50%, so it has a bullish look. Use stops, we have Fed Minutes at 2 p.m.

 

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THE SPX does NOT show what looks like a dcl (until now with the recent 10sma curl lower). I have been using the dcl for the SOXX< NAZ, and DOW. This was actually a bullish move on Tuesday, so maybe the markets are anticipating a bullish CPI & Minutes release? Or in other words…Fed Rate Cuts sooner than later.

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WTIC – Oil is dropping and after day 42 is the time when a dcl would come due, so we’ll watch this play out and eventually put in a dcl with a swing low.

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THE USD can be affected by the Data too. It sits at support, but we’ll really have to wait and see what the 8:30 CPI (inflation) numbers do to the USD.

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GOLD – WE HAVE A VERY BULLISH RUN OUT OF THE LOWS.

1. Gold has already made a 1 x 1 move, but fib extensions can extend that move in a stronger run. 1x 1.382 or 1 x 1.50 , for example.

2. In a 5 wave move out of the lows, wave 3 is usually longer than wave 1.

3. The data specifically released today can either extend gains or cause a 1/2 cycle dip.

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In early April, SILVER broke above the $26 resistance level that I had pointed out, so it should now work its way up to the $30 area.

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And here it is, SILVER is working its way up to the $30 area fairly quickly, despite some resistance on the way.

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SILVER is almost at $30 and it may pause in that area, but when it breaks above $30? Well, take a look at how it ran in 2010 when that $20 resistance area was broken. It seems that the Best is yet to come.

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GDX broke out from the downtrend too.

We see an ICL,

a first daily cycle,

the daily cycle low,

and the 2nd daily cycle currently unfolding.

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GDX – This is just an idea of how this can play out. I’m showing the next dcl and then the 3rd daily cycle continuing the run higher to $40.

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There is not much else that I can say when we are well into our daily cycles and then we add a CPI Number and The Fed Minutes to the day. We’ll see what happens at 8:30 a.m. during premarket movement, and then again after 2 p.m. with the Fed Minutes. Stay frosty and enjoy your Wednesday trading.

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN started to breakout on Monday, but the Crypto-related stocks like MARA, WULF, CLSK, RIOT, HUT, etc . did a Pop and drop and never recover. When we look at Tuesdays price action it resembles a false break out , yet price is still holding up on the 20 ema. It is possible that the triangle will fade away over time, and this consolidation will become what I originally mentioned we could see, and that was…

 

I DREW THIS ON APRIL 2:

It is possible that the triangle will fade away over time, and this consolidation will become what I originally mentioned as something that we could see. If THIS were to happen, it would explain why we aren’t seeing the Miners run, and it would also cause the ETFs to simply be a choppy ride for a while too. Again, I am keeping an eye on this everyday, along with the Miners like MARA, HUT, RIOT, CLSK, WULF, etc.