Wednesday March 13th
NO DATA ON WEDNESDAY! 🙂
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THE SPX – We are now on day 45 and we got another reversal higher with yesterdays CPI Numbers. It seems that we will also see follow through higher on Wednesday, since we do not have any data being released to hinder the progress. These markets are very bullish and they do not drop down below the 20ema (which is where I mentioned placing a stop). I think we are seeing the proof to the advice, “Never short a bull market!”
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SAME CHART
I was asked if day 31 could be the dcl. I said that it isn’t likely because for one thing, that isn’t really the low in that area. You can see that day 26 is a lower low than day 31. ALSO WITH THAT IN MIND…
I took a look at THE NASDAQ and in that same area of the chart, and we actually DID break below day 26 and the NASDAQ also closed under the 20 ema. It actually looks like a possible a-b-c dip into a possible dcl, but I just feel that the SPX is more reliable, the Tech Sector is more volatile, and The SPX does not look like a dcl. In fact…
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Let’s take a look at what we usually use as an identifying mark of a dcl: The SPX will see the 10sma dip lower at a dcl.
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We do see that it flattened out at the last dcl in January, and it can be said that the 10sma slightly dipped down then. At day 32 area, however, the 10sma has been straight up with no visible pause or dip at all. I just do NOT see a dcl, so onward and upward these markets continue. THIS IS WHY using a stop at the 20 ema has been working.
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This strong bull run is why I said that using a stop at the 20 ema has been working. The last dcl BARELY closed below that 20 ema for 2 days. That said, I don’t even know if I’d use a stop at this point. Why? Today is day 46, so by the time we break the 20 ema again (say day 51 or so), the timing for that dcl will be overdue and the dip will likely just be brief and quickly recover again.
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WTIC – Guess what Oil did? Oil is choppy and continues to chop along the 200sma. 🙁 Boring.
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THE USD Popped and then dropped again with the release of the PPI Numbers yesterday (Inflation). It tagged the 50sma and then it retreated. So far, the USD is acting rather weak, especially if this is a dcl.
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GOLD could be topping and then dropping into a dcl, but it is hard to say that for a certainty with the USD looking weak. Topping can be a ‘process’, if you know what I mean (see the chart).
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GOLD could even form a bullish pattern like a pennant as a higher dcl, so we’ll keep an eye on things daily.
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GOLD is only on day 18, so whether this continues to push higher or whether it dips, we still have some ‘time’ left in this first daily cycle, right? This could last for 1 or 2 weeks (5 or 10 days) and only be on day 28, so please keep that in mind.
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SILVER could dip back and land on the 200sma over time, especially if we start to chop lower from here.
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THE Miners or THE GDX ETF dipped lower and gave us a bit of a reversal candle. Let me show you something…
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EGO gapped down and yet it was actually able to recover, so some of these miners are showing a sign of strength or buyers stepping in. That is what could make this choppy, but keeping in mind that we should have a dcl coming up in the next couple of weeks, so…
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Please have a look at this chart:
That reversal that we saw in the GDX can still be part of a slow ‘topping process’. Here I am pointing out several times near the peaks, that we saw a dip that found buyers (see the reversal candle), but then price continued lower when a dcl was due.
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So if the USD is going to bounce and we are going to see Gold chop around for a week or 2, we may see a consolidation topping process something similar to this. It is something like what we saw coming out of the October ICL. Is a run to the prior highs of December impossible before a dcl? No, that is also possible, so we just need to see how things play out, recognizing that we are only on day 19 for Gold today, of a possible 25 to 35 day daily cycle.
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With the Precious Metals Miners, I have mentioned that some may want to sell a portion on the way up, but also hold a basket of miners through the entire first daily cycle, knowing that the second daily cycle should run to new highs and any selling will be undone. The reason for doing that is also because with ‘surprises to the upside in a bull market’, you never know if they’ll take one more run higher. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – This is a live shot of Bitcoin at 6 a.m. ET. It is another raging bull! We see new highs again, and we are on day 50.
I don’t want to sound like a ‘party pooper’, but I would love to see one of those Bitcoin slam downs that leads to an ICL. At the same time that it is dropping, I’d like to see Crypto related stocks start to resist the selling and put in a choppy bottom while Bitcoin is still selling off lower. We have seen that with Gold and Gold Miners in the past, and THAT would possibly indicate that they both are consolidating gains, but that crypto stocks started the sell off first and are stabilizing while Bitcoin drops.
MARA– I’m looking at longer term charts and weekly charts, etc, to see if we possibly start to see any support to the recent sell offs.
