March 31st Weekend Report
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SPX WEEKLY– We are early in the 3rd daily cycle, and even though I think that the 3rd daily cycle might be where the run starts to peak, that also may not start to take place for a couple more weeks. Let’s quickly review what we might see when we eventually come due for a dcl & then an ICL.
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NASDAQ WEEKLY– I went back to the NASDAQ, because I can clearly see 2 ICLs that formed in a strong bull run. What I am seeing is not exactly a very deep drop (it was sharp though), and it became a 4 week drop to the low. I see an area that is choppy and sideways as it worked its way below the red 10 week ma, and gradually tried to get over to the area of the blue 30 week ma. One more thought…
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I cannot help but to notice that when the markets are strong however, it simply bounced off of the red 10 week ma, and that is exactly what we have now. There is a possibility that these markets peak on the 4th daily cycle and this 3rd daily cycle also rides right up the 10 week ma, but we’ll see.
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WTIC WEEKLY– I think that Oil is starting to build the right side of a round bottom base. Oil prices are slowly rising up, but as noted in past reports, the Oil Stocks have taken the lead and are doing well. In fact…
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XOP WEEKLY– Oil stocks were able to break out from that triangle that I have been pointing out for a while. This is bullish for this sector.
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USD WEEKLY– I have been saying lately that the USD looks rather bullish here, but it is not hindering the Precious Metals Sector. It could still be that the USD rolls over soon, dropping into an ICL eventually. Whether or not that happens, I think when you see Gold you will agree that it hasn’t mattered what the USD has been doing…
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GOLD DAILY- Gold surged higher on Thursday and we have a breakout to new all time highs. This is very bullish, and…
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GOLD WEEKLY- That gives us a VERY CLEAR bullish breakout on the weekly charts too. I had been pointing to the blue line as an area that an ICL should form, and after we saw that ICL, Gold exploded higher. Gold did not fail to hold the highs again, so I would imagine that This is attracting attention and…
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Since last week was the last day of the Month, The GOLD MONTHLY Chart is also a very clear, very bullish break out to new all-time monthly highs. It closed at the highs, so this is just a nice bullish development.
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SILVER WEEKLY– On the other hand, Silver was only up 7 cents for the week. Really? Yes, but the good news is…
1. This is a very bullish set up if it starts to break out, and silver play catch up Very Quickly. Also,
2. Silver stocks are not waiting for Silver. We made some great gains in silver stocks this week!
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AG WEEKLY– First Majestic is breaking out from a bullish descending wedge and this looks to just be starting to run. It was up 9% this week, but most of us here put this in our basket in the $4-5 area, and now it is almost $6, so the gains to the basket of miners continues.
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EXK DAILY- After a nice box consolidation formed under the 200sma, EXK broke out on Thursday. This looks like a good place to increase position size, especially if Silver does decide to kick things into gear. Take a look at EXK last March, it was a similar set up.
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HL WEEKLY- Hecla broke from a downtrend and was up 14% last week. These are NOT waiting for Silver, and again, this has moved from $3.50 to almost $5 and looks to have plenty more in the tank. So…
So my point is that even though Silver was only up 7 cents last week, Buying Silver stocks has paid off.
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GDX DAILY– I want to discuss the GDX chart, because I actually got 3 different emails about it. I love that, because it gets me thinking and sometimes those emails have me look at things from a different angle. That said, I still came to the same conclusion. 🙂
So this is what I have for the GDX set up: I think that it is quite Bullish and it could be set up to put in a strong leg higher, so my advice is: DO NOT SELL YOUR BASKET OF MINERS just to try to buy lower. You can definitely ‘Trade it’ with extra money if you want, but my advice is DO NOT SELL THAT BASKET. Why do I say this?
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I posted this chart without the Red Writing in the Comments. One emailer mentioned that in the area where I now have added a red box, the prior top, often holds people that bought that last rally up there and are wanting to sell. They have been stuck in their positions. So he said, “Maybe we could sell now and that selling will dip us into a 1/2 cycle low or the real dcl. Should I sell my basket and load up near the 50 or even the 200sma?” I drew this chart according to his idea. THAT EMAILER WAS DISCUSSING THIS TOO…
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THAT EMAILER WAS DISCUSSING THIS TOO. What if we just repeat what we just had in December? A strong reversal and then a peak near $32. So I drew that emailers idea here too. I still have to say, “Ok, I can’t rule that out 100%, but DO NOT SELL THAT BASKET 🙂 Why not?
1. Back in December, Gold didn’t close at the ‘all-time week high’ and ‘the all-time month highs’, right?
2. Back in December, that was actually a 3rd daily cycle peak, so we are not there either, right?
3. I also am thinking that GOLD daily had a pennant break out, back test , and rally. So what does Gold tell me? It may just continue higher…
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Let’s examine this too:
Here I am thinking that we got a gap open Thursday for the GDX, and sellers tried to sell it off but simply filled the gap when BUYERS came in. Sellers failed on Thursday. If we extend this rally, GDX could run away and you wouldn’t even have a basket to make gains. Now let’s take a better look…
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GDX DAILY- Take a look at the 2020 rally again. I am taking just that first leg up and placing that Magenta line where we are now. That is just the first leg up, and the 2nd leg up was a large straight up rally too. Also…
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GDX DAILY– Many of the other rallies out of the ICL were better than what we see now, but GOLD just closed at all time weekly and Monthly highs and Silver stocks are just now kicking it into gear. May I recommend that you DO NOT SELL YOUR BASKET for a possible dip. TEven if it dipped it could go away quickly. Yes, we could dip lower, but the basket ensures that we will not miss a runaway move.
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GDX was up 7% last week and it is heading up to a downtrend line. Since it did NOT make it down to the lower downtrend channel line, it could still have the energy and strength to break out without pause.
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With ‘surprises to the upside’ in a bull market, I could show you some real laggers that made good gains too. THM was up almost 16%, NG was up 11%, and AUMN was up 44%? Wild.
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And again, back to Gold:
If we have a short daily cycle with Gold breaking out on day 25, then we also may only be on day 6 of the 2nd daily cycle. This just looks too strong for me to agree that you should sell your basket and try to get in lower, even if a dcl is ahead. If day 25 was not the dcl, then we would be on day 31 right now, right? Dcls often come at day 32 or 33 , so really this looks like day 6. Even if it was day 31, I would still say,
1. “DO NOT SELL YOUR BASKET ON DAY 31, and
2. DO NOT SELL YOUR BASKET ON DAY 6 OF A 2nd DAILY CYCLE”.
3. Who knows? GOLD may be ready act like Bitcoin, we just don’t know, right? It could just go up $15 day after day after day. We just don’t know, but we do know that it is Bullish 🙂 Let’s hold on to our basket of Miners.
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The Bulls are everywhere, and they are running strong! Yes, we will see down days and dips along the way, but surprises are often to the upside, so you do want to hold positions. The size of your basket of Miners, if you own one, depends on you, but I added to mine last week. I’m looking forward to seeing how next week plays out. Have a great Sunday, thanks for being here with me as always, and Bitcoin is below.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN remains bullish here on day 11. Last week was off, because on a day that Bitcoin was down, the crypto stocks were up nicely. On Thursday when Bitcoin was up, maybe gapped higher and sold off. NCTY, BTBT, ARBK, LMFA were Cryptos that held gains over 10% on Thursday. MARA, RIOT, WULF, CLSK, CIFR Popped and dropped. After all was said and done, they were up for the week on weekly charts, so we’ll see what happens next week. Thursday was ‘odd’ action for the Crypto-related Miners again, so I am cautiously optimistic going forward. That said…
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That said: I did post this list of the Crypto-ETFS, and BITX is a 2x ETF for Bitcoin. Check their charts, they are all similar and they have done well (very volatile when Bitcoin is choppy though, so maybe not ideal for everyone).
