Friday March 8th – Are We There Yet?

DATA – Does it really matter? 🙂 It seems that it doesn’t matter what the data is, the markets have been so bullish that they just drop & then reverse higher. We are due for a dcl, however…

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SPX – So we made a new peak on day 41 of the 2nd daily cycle.  THAT is a strong market. At one point I mentioned using the 20 ema as a stop, and so far you’d still be long the markets. I wish I took my own advice on that, and do you want to know why?…

At one point I mentioned using the 20 ema as a stop, and so far you’d still be long the markets and if you chose to buy and hold TQQQ? You’d have doubled your money in a move from $30 to $63 so far. To be Honest, I don’t think that I could EVER REALLY buy a leveraged vehicle like this and just sit tight ‘buy & hold’ style, I just can’t…but I have seen this double and I have seen GDXU double several times in past from the ICL lows to the 3rd daily cycle peak.

WTIC – Guess what Oil did?  Yes, good guess. This is now about halfway through the 2nd daily cycle and it has been choppy sideways action.

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IN THE WEEKEND REPORT I WILL EXPLAIN JUST HOW BEARISH THIS REALLY IS FOR THE USD (& IT IS). 

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1. Yesterday I mentioned that THE USD was on day 48 (the length of 2 daily cycles), and it had lost the 200sma and landed on the 50sma.

2. Today it rolled over and lost that 50 sma support too. This could break below the first daily cycles dcl already (bearish).

3. Timewise, I do now think that we may be close to a DCL and a bounce, and if we are, Gold may dip into a dcl with the USD bounce.

4. I would then expect the USD to roll over and die as shown here, and for Gold to put in a dcl and fly.  BUY THAT GOLD DIP, if we get one.

So with the USD possible ready to bounce (and that could be soon or next week, or whenever), GOLD would likely pull back into the dcl. I am NOT calling a top here, since older daily cycles were 33 days long and this could keep running to day 24 or more under that scenario, but I am saying that the last daily cycles were 25 days long and we should be mentally ready for whatever comes our way. GOLD could dip into a dcl at any time.

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I personally would like to see SILVER run back to the Dec highs before a dcl dip, and it could do that. We’ll see.

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GDX – The miners should eventually pull back into a dcl, and we want to be ready to buy that dip.

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I just want to mention that at times we get a ‘down day’ and I’ll hear people say, “I BOUGHT THAT DIP.”  and that is fine.  In a bull market a resumption of the uptrend erases all losses in the second cycle. You can even ride the dips down & back because of that, HOWEVER….when you hear the term ‘Buy the dip’ from me?

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I am often talking about a dip down into a dcl, and that can take days or a week!  We could pull back for a week or 2 actually, so please take a look at these ‘Dips’. It may be days until we actually hit a low, but again, in the second daily cycle, the rally should quickly regain the first daily cycle highs in a bull market.  IN FACT…

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I’LL CALL THIS A VERY IMPORTANT CHART:

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Take a look at this: If you buy too early or decide to ride some of your basket down into the dcl, just remember that the pain is temporary. Sometimes the rally out of the dcl can SWIFTLY erase the pain of that first sell off. Read my HMY chart below.

With HMY, we sold off for 18 days!! That is 4 weeks of sell off! Yet in 3 days the pain was erased!! This was March 4th, and HMY price is now higher than this too.

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Silver stocks do seem to slowly be playing catch up.

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AG  – I wonder if they’ll run to the 200sma as resistance, and then just dip into a dcl?

CDE has made a strong move out of the lows, with 6 days of the rally.

HL – Will it get to the 200sma before we see a pullback? If so, buy that dip into a dcl once it drops and reverses.

VGZ was lagging as it stalled at the 200sma. Well, it formed a pennant under that 200 sma and then it broke out yesterday and as was up 11%.

 

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GOLD LIVE:

 So today is Friday, the last trading day of the week. It is also day 17 for Gold, and right now at 6:30 a.m., I see Gold up again. Now we have a day 17 peak so far and that would make this R.T. most likely, and we do expect that with a first daily cycle. The length of the rally out of the ICL is now also matching the distance of the rally out of the November rally. Gold has made new all-time highs, so when this does dip down into a dcl, we will want to load up on Miners again if you either lighten up on the way up, or if you were light through this first rally.

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Enjoy your Friday trading!

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~ALEX

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Bitcoin– Bitcoin is on day 45 out of the recent lows, and that is 45 out of roughly 60. We would then get a pullback and I’ll be watching the Crypto stocks to see how they set up at that time. It is very disappointing that Bitcoin at the $70,000 mark and MARA and RIOT not up at $45 or so, but you just have to accept what the markets present to you, and take it as it comes our way.

 

 

MARA WEEKLY: As disappointing as it is that these crypto-related stocks arent at former highs with Bitcoin at former highs, I am not giving up on them. The moves have still been very bullish, with mara basically running from $3 to $34, and now down to $25. Yes, I feel that it should be up at $50 or more, but we’ll see how it plays out. I am still focusing on MARA, CLSK, and RIOT when Bitcoin drops down into its next low. These can still form a LARGE BOWL here over time, as it breaks out from these bases.