Wednesday & The Fed Minutes
Today the Fed Minutes will be released at 2 p.m. ET. The things that they talk about, such as inflation and interest rate cuts, can move the markets. I would expect that things may get volatile after that 2 p.m. time period. Let’s discuss the current ‘set ups’ in the various sectors.
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THE SPX sold off on Tuesday and started to reverse at support again on day 30. I have mentioned that it is quite possible that the markets will remain ‘heavy’ and choppy, making it unable to make a new peak. So far using a trailing stop at the 20 ema would be keeping you in the long trade. We are now easily within the timing for a dip down into a dcl to start, so that could happen at any time. The MACD is weakening.
WTIC – Oil dropped on day 10 and it has been choppy, but the lows are in place so it is a long trade or a long set up.
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This is where the Fed Minutes could really move things. The USD and Precious Metals:
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The USD has been dropping and Gold has been moving higher, but the USD is at support and we have the Fed minutes at 2 p.m. This could go either way. The last 2 times that the USD hit this support line, it surged. The Fed Mtg was on Jan 30.
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GOLD –
1. Gold broke the January lows last week and that gives us a failed daily cycle.
2. What happened to Gold after Feb 30? It peaked and started to sell off.
3. Gold is at the 50sma and we’ll see what happens at the end of the day, but this could be the start of the 5th and final daily cycle, so it could start to drop down into the next ICL after today.
4. If Gold somehow rallied from here and took out the magenta line (recent highs), this could be the start of the next run (that is less likely).
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I have mentioned that SILVER did something odd- it took out the recent highs at the end of January making this look bullish. It was rejected Friday and Tuesday at the 200sma again though. The MACD looks bullish, so we’ll see what happens at the end of the day.
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The GDX ETF or The Miners look weaker than Gold and Silver and it reached the downward sloping 20 ema yesterday. This could have passed for an ICL drop, since
1. I do see an a-b-c style drop,
2. I see a capitulation low, and
3. The MACD is trying to level off,
…but unless Gold and Silver start to rally, I don’t see the Miners perking up yet either.
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So we have our set ups as mentioned in the reports and we have the release of the Fed Minutes, so from there we’ll see how things play out after 2 p.m. January 30 saw the SPX drop (day 17) to the 20ema. It also saw the USD spike and Gold & Silver dropped, so unless they discussed rate cuts or low inflation in a predominant way, we may get a repeat of that later today, but you can still…Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – Yesterday pre-market I started to see a possible triangle form, but with the timing of that 1/2 cycle dip still in play, I mentioned that this could break out and run higher, or break down, so…
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BITCOIN – So I took a 4 hr chart and mentioned that we still had time in that apex too. I mentioned these 3 things at I’d be watching for. It was 7:45 pre-market and notice the second idea, because that is what appears to be happening…
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BITCOIN – We did a false break out and then it dropped back to the lows on Tuesday morning, so I grabbed this chart. Notice the Blue triangle that formed with the last run higher. It actually broke down on day 27 and put in a half cycle low, so that is what it looked like Bitcoin could do next. That is a reversal candle, so the real half cycle drop could follow…
BITCOIN 6:30 a.m. ET – Currently Bitcoin has started to break down on day 29. I’d LOVE to see it break the day 25 lows and reverse higher quickly, but we’ll have to wait and see how this plays out, especially since we do have a cross down on the lower indicators. It may need to chop a bit to repair that. How did the Crypto Stocks do yesterday?…
MARA dropped sharply by 12% and I thought that it might fill that gap at $22, but…
MARA bounced at the 13 sma and came up short. This was 3 pm and it was now only down 9.5%, and it closed down 9%. THIS CAN DROP FURTHER.
RIOT dropped 5% by the first hour of trading, so I drew this up with possible support areas. In the last run, it tagged the blue 8 ema on the way higher, but that 1/2 cycle low tagged the red 13 sma.
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RIOT bounced and closed down only 2.5% by the close. This CAN continue to drop with a 1/2 cycle low for Bitcoin, and the last one broke that blue line too.
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WULF dropped 7.23% in the first hour also. I grabbed this because these all rode the blue line up on the last run, so maybe it would hold & bounce here?
WULF was bouncing into the end of the day too
WULF closed down almost 5%.
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