Tuesday February 6th
Since we do not usually see drastic changes from the weekend report to Monday, todays report will be a regular review of the markets and I want to add a few charts at the end of the report, in addition to the ones that I have had over the past couple of weeks like AMZN, PAGS, UBER, NVDA, AMD, SQ, ROKU, SHOP, SNAP, etc.
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SPX has what should be a 1/2 cycle low and is on day 20 of what is often roughly 35 day daily cycles.
LABU or ‘Biotech stocks’ sold down recently and I saw LABU reverse at the 50sma yesterday, so I posted this after 2 p.m. This has me wondering if the timing is a bit different here, with Biotech putting in a dcl here. It is a buy with a stop for a risk reward entry.
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WTIC bounced but I usually see Oil daily cycles last beyond day 40 and even into day 50 (10-15 more days?), so this may only be a bounce back to the 200sma on the way down to the dcl.
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USD – The USD is due for a dcl, but it surged on the Friday after the Fed and followed through on Monday. Was that a stealth dcl? It may be.
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GOLD is on its’ 4th daily cycle and this one should be weaker, left translated, and roll over into an eventual ICL. The ICL can come at the end of the 4th daily cycle, or Gold can also have 5 daily cycles, so I am monitoring it from the sidelines. The first 3 daily cycles were short and only roughly 25 days long, and this is day 13.
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SILVER Popped on the Thursday after the Fed mentioned ‘cuts’ as a possibility, but it is in the 4th daily cycle and it is rolling over too.
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GDX also popped after the FOMC Meeting, but I had been mentioning that it would likely be unable to get above the 50 & 200sma. I thought that it might ‘tag’ it and I could go short, but so far the Miners are heavy. It could bounce again, since it is early in the daily cycle, and if so, that may offer a place to go short.
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I want to discuss a few stocks below, enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN: IN THE WEEKEND REPORT: I said that I wanted to look for signs that may indicate if it is was going to be dropping (Orange line) or could it power higher. I used this chart with the 2 paths and I said…
So the way I view Bitcoin: I expect lower prices, but those changes could move it higher.
BITCOIN was Green on Monday. As it moves out of the recent low, I wanted to look for signs that may indicate if it is was dropping or could it power higher. Yesterday may have given us a sign, because Bitcoin was green and many crypto stocks dropped 7-10%. Let’s take a look…
MARA Jan 29 – Back in January I said that we might see a good bounce in Crypto, but it could be a 3-4 of a 5 wave drop. I drew this on January 29th as an example of what to possibly look for.
MARA, RIOT, WULF, etc started to drop yesterday with Bitcoin green. I grabbed this 1/2 hr into trading.
MARA closed down 8.5% with Bitcoin Green, so this may be the clue we needed to tell us that BITCOIN will drop. MARA may drop in a 5 wave drop down to that 200sma or lower. What a great buy these will eventually be!
RIOT also closed down about 8% with bitcoin green too, but it already lost the 200 sma.
CVNA is one of those stocks that I have always done well on…until recently. It lost the 50sma and is chopping along the 50 now. I do like the set up so it is on my watchlist. Recovering the 50sma this time would break the downtrend line, and could be considered a buy. The MACD has finally flattened.
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GCT has been strong and after a nice run it has been forming a loose (rather ugly) flat topped wedge. yesterday I saw it attempting to break out & posted that it may be breaking, but it also may drop 1 more time…
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GCT -By midday, it looked to be a break out.
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GCT Broke out and was up 11%. These CAN backtest, but this may also just continue running. I will give examples of both next…
CSX – Notice the November breakout and this recent one.
Sometimes you get a breakout, and it is a buy, like this runner. They can break out and back test like we saw in November, or just keep running. So GCT could do either. If I own a stock like GCT that breaks out, I may add if I’m light, or I may lighten up if it extends and try to buy the next dip if it is a back test. CSX is bullish.
ZWS is breaking out from a multi month wide consolidation. This is a buy since it can just keep running.
UBER was in the reports and it has given us a breakout with the stock market dcl too. We just ride these, though they can be choppy at times.
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NVDA, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, etc have been mentioned in the reports as stronger runners. You can see that when NVDA broke to new highs, it just kept going.
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PAGS was in the report a few days ago. It had a great run in Nov – Jan. Now it is trying to break out, but it is choppy. This was a buy and can still be bought at this point, but again- it is choppy for now.
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AMZN had an earnings pop, so if you were already riding it, you got a nice surprise last Friday. Will it run, or gap fill and back test? I do not know, but it could chop lower at the next dcl and fill that gap.
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KOD – ED mentioned this one and I do like that set up, so I thought i would put it in the report as a low risk entry, with a stop. MANY MANY of the little biotech stocks that I have mentioned are breaking higher.
I had about 50 on my list, and no one can trade that many, but look at charts of some of the ones that I mentioned in past reports. SERA, CDIO, ESPR, FUSN, LUNR, KALV, etc. This sector has been tagging support and running, so try to buy them near support (or buy them when they dip to support again). I will likely have more charts in future reports.
