Tuesday February 27th
SPX – The General markets gapped open on Thursday with the Fed Minutes and NVDA earnings release, and they have somewhat stalled since then. If we drop down to do a gap fill here, it could lead us into the dcl, since this is day 34.
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In the weekend report, I mentioned that the set up with Biotech looks bullish, and it is possible that this sector will run while the markets dip.
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As the General Markets dipped on Monday, The XBI & IBB did break higher.
So I mentioned several Biotechs that we have had in the reports and that seemed to be doing well. Check your biotech/pharma watch lists, because some pulled back and now look ready to run…
OMER dropped to the 20 ema, reversed, and moved up 10% by midday.
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ATNM started to run at the open and was mentioned above, but I didn’t know that it was going to do this! Up 21% by the close, so some of these are really running well. This is extended now, so it is not a recommendation at this point.
TWST , CRSP, and a few of the others in prior reports also chopped a little last week and seem set up to make another run. (CRSP is actually just moving steadily higher).
Moving on to Oil – no change:
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WTIC – Oil has chopped sideways and I explained in the weekend report what we are seeing…
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Fron that Weekend Report:
WTIC WEEKLY – The weekly chart of Oil shows that the 30 week ma, which is a common support or resistance line in weekly charts, has been holding price back. It looks like Oil needs to break above the $79.60 area to gain some more buyers and some traction. Oil is only on The 2nd daily cycle, and it has plenty of time left and the weekly MACD has crossed higher, so Oil remains bullish.
THE USD WEEKLY hit that $105 area that I have been discussing & pointing toward for many weeks as a resistance area and as a target area for (hopefully) a pullback. So far it pulled back and now we just need to wait and see if this is the time for the USD to begin to drop down into that 3 yr cycle low or not. It is also not uncommon to get a false breakout, and we could get a break higher in the next daily cycle and then it fades as we get closer to possible rate cuts or rate cut discussions by the Fed.
So The USD has been weaker and drifting lower.
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GOLD – This hasn’t changed from my weekend analysis either. If it breaks to new highs there is a stealth ICL, but it should roll over 1 more time to form a bit of a deeper low for the ICL. You may want to re-read the weekend report on Gold, it was fairly detailed.
No change here either: This is what I wrote in THURSDAY MORNINGS REPORT: So this was noted after the Fed Wednesday Minutes…
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This is the good news: GDX at the lows means that when Gold starts to run higher, you haven’t missed a thing. If Gold & Silver do have stealth ICLs, then GDX could also be viewed this way…
1. GDX has an A-B-C down to a capitulation low.
2. Has a capitulation candle at the lows
3. It may be a shake out and this may be a bullish descending wedge, as drawn. It also has a MACD divergence at the lows.
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GDX – Nothing has really changed, THE GDX ETF is hanging out at the lows.
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So not a lot changed on Monday, right? Well, except for the breakout in Biotech and BITCOIN. 🙂 We appear to have the continuation in crypto that we’ve been watching for taking place, so I will discuss that below. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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Bitcoin Sunday morning: We saw that we had a new low on day 31 that was followed by a push higher, but We didn’t know if it would drop again to that 20 ema, or was that enough?
I then showed you that in doing some research I found that strong 2020 run for Bitcoin, we had a day 25 half cycle low that came up short of the 20 ema. That means that the current day 31 low could very well be the half cycle low.
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I mentioned in my Friday report that I was going to hold on to my crypto positions over the weekend, because the timing was right for that low and I didn’t want a Monday morning rally to leave me behind. Well, Bitcoin was up from Sunday and the Crypto stocks took off VERY quickly Monday. Most were up 10% in minutes.
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BITCOIN: 1 hr into trading on Monday gave us a Pop that was starting to give us a candle that looked like the ones on the left in the rally higher on a 4 hr chart, so I posted this in the commenting area.
BITCOIN: By midday the highs were taken out, so this was now a day 34 cycle high,
1. Making it more likely to become right Translated, and
2. The next leg up for our Bitcoin rally.
BITCOIN Monday night: By now price moved straight up and that move was sharp enough to make it almost look like the 20 ema was supporting. This now looks like the start of that rally that we have been waiting for.
BITCOIN TUESDAY 6:30 a.m. ET: We may be seeing a 5 wave run out of the January lows (dcl). Bitcoin has been known to move very quickly and this move is running out of a 12 day consolidation, so it can leave people behind wondering how to get in without being tagged by a pullback. This is why we wanted to hold a basket last week.
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It is interesting that many of the Crypto Miners actually used the 20 ema as support and reversed there too.
IREN was up 13% by 10:30 am, and as you can see, it has the potential to move much higher.
WULF had a small reversal candle on Friday and popped 15% within the first hour of trading. This is what makes it so hard to buy AFTER a run starts. These rip higher 6%, 8%, 10% in minutes, and then as buyers wait for a morning dip, they just kept going.
RIOT had a reversal candle on Friday at the 20 ema. It then shot up 17% for the day.
CLSK has been a real leader after they released their positive earnings report and gapped open a few weeks ago. The pullback was mild and CLSK is already at the new highs. $7 to $20 in the last month.
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BTBT There are laggers like BTBT, FTFT, CAN, EBON, etc that are still back at the lows, but they can move once they catch fire too. I would say that they have a bit more added risk, so be careful if you decide to buy the laggers. A small basket is safer than just 1, unless you keep it small.
