Wednesday January 24th

THE SPX is bullish and is on day 11 (of a possible 40+ day cycle). This may back test, but yesterdays’ selling found buyers.

WTIC – Oil is trying to breakout again, but it just cannot break free from the choppiness yet.

The USD made a new peak on day 17, which is bullish as a move out of an ICL. It broke above the 50sma and crawled along it, so I cannot rule out further upside, but this doji may be indicating that it will now pull back and that would allow Gold to bounce. Due to cycle timing, If that happens, all that I am expecting at this time is a bounce in the precious metals. I think that the USD can run to $105…

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I think that the USD can run to $105, based on this chart that I had in the weekend report.

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YESTERDAY I POINTED OUT WITH THIS CHART THAT GOLD COULD BOUNCE SOON AND ALSO THAT IT STILL HAS A SERIES OF HIGHER LOWS, BUT SILVER & MINERS BROKE DOWN. I said in part…

 … the peak is likely in place and we really all need to recognize that this will drop and Silver is leading the way. I have repeatedly said that Silver and Miners are weaker than Gold, but Gold will drop too.

So GOLD is oversold and could form a swing low, a dcl, and bounce while the $USD stalls or dips lower. I expect it to be short-lived and I do not think that Gold will be able to get above $2100 (the Dec peak).

SILVER broke below the December lows and has started to develop a downtrend. If it bounces, I wouldn’t expect it to have the strength to get above the 50 and 200sma resistance area.

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GDX – You can see that the cycles have been shorter than normal. 27 days for the first one and only 22 for the 2nd before we got that strong burst higher. If we reverse here, that would give us a day 25 dcl. Like Silver, this next daily cycle also may not be able to get above the 50 & 200sma. GDX broke below the day 22 low, so that is a failed daily cycle.

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I’ve been sick this week, so I may be in and out of the trading / commenting area. The pressure behind my eyes makes it hard to stare at a screen. The General Markets remain the real bullish set up, while Oil should also be Bullish, but it remains choppy, and that can be frustrating.  The Precious Metals sector is looking ready to possibly put in a bounce, but that should form as Left Translated, meaning that it can ‘peak’ in 7-10 days (or less). Enjoy your Wednesday trading.

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN: I have been showing my count, with the last low at day 59 (& I was looking for day 60 roughly). That makes perfect sense to me, so that I how I see this. A reader asked me if the count could be stretching and it remains bullish? I obviously cannot be dogmatic and insist that day 59 must be the dcl, but I think that it is, and here is part of why I feel that way.

1. As soon as we hit day 58 we had the approval and everyone thought Bitcoin must rally with fresh buying. It seemed kind of late for a rally, but yes, it could have rallied for several days and then dipped.  Instead, it collapsed.

2. Bitcoin & Crypto-related stocks have been cut in half already, so it is hard for me to honestly try to put a bullish spin on this without feeling like I’d be fooling myself.

3. If my count is correct, Bitcoin is only on day 11. Even with bounces and countertrend rallies, there is a lot of ‘Time’ for this to chop & drop even further, so for me? I am going to be patient and allow this set up to play out.