Wednesday January 17th – Looking For Set Ups
Todays report will be short and to the point, because Tuesdays trading was choppy and boring. The Data that we have being released today could move the markets one way or the other, so you may see some directional movement with the futures at 8:30 a.m. ET. ( Those 9 a.m. Fed discussions may or may not add to the choppiness). I did see a couple of Bullish set ups in 2 sectors that will be mentioned in the report…
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SPX – This is obviously bullish and we are on day 6, and normally I trade SOXL, TQQQ, and other bullish etfs. So far, it has been difficult and choppy intraday. So what is the problem? My fear is that we had such a strong rally out of the ICL, that it will be followed by a bullish consolidation. Notice that the RSI is not showing the same strength at the highs. Sideways chop (picture it similar to the Oil Market) out of this dcl will be difficult to enjoy until maybe the 3rd daily cycle, but we’ll see. It may just start to push higher with buyers soon.
WTIC – This is the sideways chop that I would hate to see with our general markets. Oil is plain old choppy and a bullish consolidation in the general markets could become similar to this at the highs, where Oil has it at the lows. Oil is on day 21, and it has gone absolutely nowhere.
THE USD had a bullish pennant forming and it broke out higher. This chart actually shows the move this morning and we have a day 13 high as a result. A run higher will hinder Gold, but Gold is in the 3rd daily cycle and I expect that.
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GOLD bounced at the 50sma, and I thought that this was too early for a dcl (day 19?), but it MIGHT have been one. If so, this looks weak. Gold then dropped on Tuesday and the selling volume is swelling, so the dcl may still be ahead & this is only day 21. I have mentioned that I expect that ‘peak’ to be the exhaustion candle, so I am waiting for a the next ICL to buy miners. I have not used JDST yet, because I am expecting a dcl somewhere in here.
SILVER has been pointed out as weak, and it remains weak. It is trapped under both the 50sma and the 200sma.
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GDX had that big gap up on Friday and then a big gap down on Tuesday. Yesterdays drop even broke the uptrend line and volume is heavy. Today would be day 21 with a day 7 peak, so this could sell off further if Gold doesn’t have an early dcl.
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I will cover BITCOIN and 2 bullish sectors below. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – I sold all of my Crypto stocks for big profits, we have another one of those topping/exhaustion type candles at day 58. It was Buy the Rumor (approval coming) , Sell the News (Approval is here). In the past I have overtraded them and chipped away at the gains after a top formed (They rally for 1/2 a day and then crash for example, etc), so I really want to avoid giving my gains back. We just had a 2 day bounce and a few crypto stocks were down 10-15% yesterday. This could be a bear flag bounce. I think that we will drop lower, maybe to the $30,000 area, and I’ll show you the big picture next…
BITCOIN WEEKLY– You see the ‘approval’ topping candle on a weekly basis. I have been pointing out similarities to the 2020 run for this whole run, and we did see a sharp quick drop for 3 or 4 weeks then, before the upward push resumed. I can see this dropping to that $30,000-$35,000 area, so until then, I am just taking notes.
I also already showed this:
BITCOIN MONTHLY- I know that it is too early to examine a Monthly chart, but this is a topping candle. If this plays out like this, you’ll see MARA , RIOT, IREN, CLSK, CIFR, etc etc. much, much lower. I want to be patient and I do NOT want to chip away at my recent gains.
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Recently we pointed out the Uranium Sector and MJ Sector as having bullish set ups. They are still acting well. Uraniums did a large POP & DROP yesterday, so watch those for a buy opportunity on the dip. MJ looks good now.
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URA ETF– you can see the high volume rally and yesterday many of these had Pop & Drop reversals. Well, many of these like DNN, UUUU, UEC, CCJ, NXE, etc have gaps below , some are right around the 50sma. I will be watching that area over the next couple of days for a possible entry again.
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MJ ETF – During yesterdays choppiness, I saw MJ Stocks adding some nice gains. So take a look at charts of TLRY, MJ, OGI , CRLBF, GRWG,VFF, JUSHF, etc. since they have done well, and maybe CGC, SNDL, and the others will start to play catch up. This ETF is bullishly set up…
OGI has done excellent as it Popped Thursday, stalled on Friday, and Popped again on Tuesday.
TLRY sold off after a Good earnings report, I think they did an offering at the market. The selling seems to have brought it to the uptrend line and it reversed yesterday with a 12% rally. It is oversold and looks bullish.
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GRWG has been Popping, but lacked follow through so far. That may have been due to the Markets finding their dcl. It is a bullish set up with nice volume coming in yesterday. That was an 8% pop and this is a buy with a stop under recent lows ( or the 50sma). Others in the sector look good too. I listed several with that chart of the MJ ETF.
