Friday January 19th – Weekend Approaching

The DATA today is rather light, and I don’t really see this moving the market one way or the other. That means that most likely, what we saw yesterday could simply have some follow through. Let’s take a look at the charts…

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QQQ – After the release of the Jobless Claims Report, the markets gapped open bullishly, but then sold off by midday. The question was, are the markets just closing the gap and buyers would then step in? Or was this just that choppiness giving us a ‘Pop & Drop”?

QQQ – Buyers started to slowly step in and the markets began to push higher. Individual stocks did this too, so now this looks like we may get a break higher, since todays DATA does NOT seem to be negative.

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SPX – This actually made Wednesday and Thursday buy the dip at the 20 ema , and buy the gap fill after the reversal started ( for those in front of their screens). Some of the stocks like …

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Some of the stocks that I mentioned like AMZN, AMD, MU, GOOG, NVDA, MSFT, etc remain bullish too. They do get choppy, but the run higher over time. In fact, NVDA and MCST are just running higher (no big dip), so they are leading the way.

 

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YESTERDAY I MENTIONED THAT WE SHOULD WATCH OIL, THE CHOP MAY BE READY TO STOP: I WROTE THIS…

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WTIC – I have been saying “Oil is choppy”, “Oil is choppy” day after day, But now?  Oil has chopped into a wedge or triangle, and it is near the apex. That means that Oil may be getting near to the time that it can break out higher. This should be the next low in that triangle so it can be bought with a stop, but may still chop for a bit.

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WTIC – Oil continued higher to the 50sma and it may be ready to break out here. IF IT DROPS, you should get another opportunity to buy in the apex  near $72 (lower trend line).  UCO & USO are Oil trades, but I do want to mention that the XOP is actually…

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XOP – I do want to mention that the XOP is actually dropping to a new low (possibly an ICL?). This chart has a reversal yesterday, but if Oil stays in that APEX, this may drop to the lower trend line. If Oil breaks out of the apex, this may have an ICL. This reversal Thursday DID make a new low, but I feel that we should still drop a bit more here to that trend line. I may buy this next week with leveraged ‘GUSH’ if Oil breaks out.

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THE USD broke from that bull pennant and ran higher through all resistance. This may be an ICL and that would take 2 daily cycles before it rolls over, but they could be choppy and allow Gold to hang around & chop too, rather than crash down.

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GOLD actually reversed higher and this is Gold this morning (green so far again today). IS THIS THE DCL on day 25, with the USD possibly dipping lower after that run from the pennant. That is possible. All in all, this remains CHOPPY.

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YESTERDAY I SAID THAT A GDX BOUNCE MAY OFFER ME AN ENTRY ON JDST NEXT WEEK. I WROTE:

…if we get a dcl soon and a bounce, I will probably try to short the 4th daily cycle. Especially if it is a strong enough bounce to back test the 50sma.

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GDX THURSDAY – If Gold has a dcl, GDX may do another island bottom and gap higher today. THIS would start the bounce that I mentioned, possibly to the 50sma. Basically the read on this sector is that it is selling down with choppy bounces in between.   I may short this next week.

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CONCLUSION: So today is Friday and as we head into the weekend, The General Markets and Oil are the interesting set ups. The General Markets have been strong and bullish and it is still hard to say if they will just continue higher or consolidate, but some of the stocks are just running higher. The general markets could do the same, but I did notice that the ones just running higher like MSFT & NVDA, already did a long consolidation. THESE can continue higher.

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I also have noticed that SOME of the past runners like AI, FUBO, GRPN, CVNA, etc are not running higher yet.  They all look a bit different, but I watch them daily for progress or an entry if they look ready to go higher.  CVNA is on the 50sma for example, early in a General Market dcl. Semiconductors look good (AMD, MU, ASX, TSM, NXPI, ON, etc)  Some of these are running and others look good as of just yesterday, so check those charts. I have had AMD, MU, and a few other charts in recent reports as buy possibilities.  And now we may see a bounce (DCL) in Precious Metals. I may buy JDST next week if GDX tags the 50sma and is rejected. ENJOY YOUR FRIDAY TRADING AND YOUR WEEKEND!

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~ALEX

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BITCOIN: The way I see this, we had our dcl at day 59, and it was that slam down low.  That low was broken, so now this does seem to be playing out the way that I mentioned a week ago. That is: Lower over time.

 

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The Crypto Miners and Crypto related stocks have already been taking a real beating.  I warned that on the way up, these are great %-Gainers and even buy and hold with a basket and the gains add up fast, but on the pull backs?  These are NOT buy and hold when a drop is due. If you look at RIOT, WULF, IREN, CLSK, MARA, etc , you’ll see why. They slice right through all ‘support’, like the 50sma and the 200sma, etc

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RIOT could be doing a 5 wave drop here and wave 1 and 3 were heart wrenching unless you sold and stepped aside. This could ‘Bounce’, but just know that if you see it do 2 or 3 10% up days, it still may not be done dropping. RIOT at $8 again would be a gift.  MARA at $10 would also.