Friday January 26th
SPX – Day 13 and the volume and price action remains bullish. This MIGHT do a back test in the future as a 1/2 cycle dip, and if that happens, it would be another opportunity to buy or add.
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Yesterday I mentioned that some of my favorite trades weren’t following the markets higher, like GRPN, FUBO, CVNA, etc. Well, GRPN and a few others did start to rise, so others may follow.
WTIC – Oil is finally starting to increase the upward gain, after 26 days of sideways chop. This was mentioned as a buy with UCO or USO, along with the Oil Stocks and GUSH, but it has been hard to want to buy & hold with all of that chop. This may change that.
XOP (Or GUSH) – After a slow start here too, it seems to want to follow Oils lead. The arrow is where the buy started, and it has been slow & choppy. You can see that when you notice that the candles have upper & lower wicks every day.
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Most of the stocks that I trade in this sector like NOG, APA, WTI, ERF, VET, MRO, etc all lost the 50 & 200sma, except for VLO.
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So VLO remained strong above the 200sma, and has moved from $123 to $135 since the XOP buy. Others, however…
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Many of the other Oil stocks are still very close to their lows and may begin to move better now.
This is NOG moving off of the downtrend line/channel. These remain oversold, and Oil seems to have an ICL in place.
The USD is choppy as it moves out of the lows. This allows days of Pop and also POP & DROP in the precious metals sector. If the USD dips for a couple of days into a dcl, Precious Metals can move higher for a couple of days, but I do NOT expect new highs there at all. I think that the USD has an ICL and wants to go higher over time.
GOLD has been choppy. Again, if the USD dips into a dcl, Gold can pop, but as a late stage daily cycle you should not expect very much upside joy. Gold is oversold.
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SILVER has been forming a descending wedge and looks ready to break higher, but I see that as a short term bounce too. Take a look at EXK, FSM, AG, HL, etc. They are at the lows, so this is nothing to get too excited about yet.
GDX -The miners could bounce, but will they recover the 50sma and 200sma? I doubt it, we’ll see. I drew a possible path that simply leads to that resistance area. I personally am not trading this area right now.
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Today is Friday, the last day of the trading week, enjoy your Friday trading. 🙂
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN live 6 am Friday.
Bitcoin looks ready to bounce and the crypto stocks often bounce with it (in a Big way), but traders beware, they gain quickly and take it back quickly, so caution is warranted. This sector is not for everyone, ESPECIALLY during volatile times. A bounce here would give us an A-B-C down or a 5 wave drop, with this being 1-2 of 5 waves down. Yesterday…
Yesterday HUT actually bounced 20% and remains quite oversold, but these can still be very volatile and unpredictable so ‘Buyer beware’.
