Wednesday December 27th
The phenomenon of the so-called ‘Santa Rally’ is that the markets can drift higher on light holiday volume the week after Christmas, due to a lack of sellers. The ‘Big Boys’ should be on vacation until next Tuesday.
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THE SPX – We are quite late in the daily cycle on day 40, but the markets did continue to drift higher on light volume. I personally would sell at the end of this week or at least tighten stops if I was in SOXL, SPXL, TQQQ, etc, because I would have to expect a drop into a dcl in January if it doesn’t start in 2023.
Did I show this chart? I grabbed this on December 20 and meant to put it in a report, but I can’t remember using it. I simply wanted to show the big picture of some of these companies like TSLA, MU, AMD, CVNA, AI, MSFT, etc – TSLA IS Now $256, so it has moved right up to that blue line. If this dips in a pullback to the dcl, I would consider it a strong buy & hold candidate at the dcl.
WTIC – Oil continues to break out and this really should be an ICL in place. Overhead resistance was pointed out as the 50/200 crosses under, but one step at a time and Oil should continue higher. Oil stocks have looked better than Oil for a long time…
THE XOP – On Dec 8th I showed this bullish set up using a weekly chart. When Oil Bottomed, The Oil stocks should be bullish.
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THE XOP has done a shake out and is moving higher after breaking above both the 200sma & the downtrend line. Yesterday The XOP also closed above the 50sma.
I have mentioned and We have often trade Oil stocks like NOG, APA, VLO, MRO, VET, CPE, etc etc, when Oil bottoms. This is NOG now, rising up off of the 200sma. I also wanted to show…
CNQ – This is a company that Rob pointed out in our commenting area yesterday and it really is a bullish set up. Why? It is back at the highs and Oil is still close to the lows, so I do like this company for this sector, despite the fact that it has been choppy. This could just breakout and run.
THE USD has been breaking down and was near new lows yesterday. Daily cycles for the USD used to be around 20 days long, but lately they have stretched well beyond that. Well, at this time, we are near day 20 and I do see slight divergence, so a bounce may be coming.
GOLD is holding up above the 8 ema, which is bullish, and this is only day 8. It needs a surge higher to break above the 2nd daily cycle highs, and I actually do not think that those breakout highs will be taken out with this intermediate cycle, but price is holding up nicely. This can just continue higher and ‘double top’. I discussed the big picture in the weekend report.
SILVER is also above the 8 ema, so far. Silver could also ‘double top’ and then start a sideways chop lower. I think that the next run out of the next ICL in 2024 could lead to the real break out and run for this sector.
THE GDX ETF, or the Miners, are leading the way, and they do have a higher peak in the 3rd daily cycle. This is day 8.
Some stocks will act individually and USAU popped 10% yesterday. Another smaller miner that has looked good lately is THM.
You can see that THM was basing out and then surged through the 50sma. That was followed by a back test and now from the last week of November until now it has basically doubled. This shows that individual Miners may still move higher based on their own merit.
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So with these final days of trading in 2023, everything seems to want to remain bullish and float higher. I’ll have a little more info below too. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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MJ stocks started to pop again yesterday, so this is the MJ ETF. This is a bullish set up and it is trying to put in a series of higher lows and now higher highs. Lets look at a few individual stocks…
TLRY was up 5% midday, so I wrote this in the commenting area. You can look these charts up and see how they looked at the close. TLRY has closed up above both the 50 & 200sma.
CGC did a reverse split a couple of days ago and I have seen companies that do a reverse split run up VERY quickly if the sector gets bullish, so I thought that I would just point that out here while it is still near the lows.
SNDL was also moving above the 50 & 200sma yesterday. These are basing out and could run now or after the market dcl, so this is a heads up to keep an eye on your watchlists for MJ Stocks.
NIO – In the commenting section yesterday I wrote ” NIO, PLUG, LAC, BLNK, etc actually look like a buy, but I feel like I’ll wait until we get that dcl dip and then take a look.” You can see that these have been basing and now look ready to move higher. Lets also look at BLNK…
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BLNK popped about 20% and then pulled back, and you can see that it had huge volume as it pushes out of this base. It still closed up almost 15% and if this sector decides to become bullish in 2024 with lower rates, these have a lot of upside.
BITCOIN LIVE 6 am ET – It is getting later in this daily cycle, but I have seen daily cycles run up late and pull back into that day 60 area, so I drew this as an example. It is true that Bitcoin could just continue to chop sideways and then drop down into day 60, but the Crypto stocks have been flying despite the sideways move here.
Below is just a portion of what I had in the weekend report:
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Bitcoin now: Running out of that base, Bitcoin had the green box running correction and then a slight pause before ramping straight up. The odd thing is that we are still seeing similarities to that run in 2020, so I keep asking myself: Is the run up to the ETF decision going to make that 2020 halving run right now, and then after an ICL dip in 2024, will we then see a 2nd run for the halving period? I am starting to think that this might be the case. If so, this could be a HUGE year for Bitcoin ( & crypto currencies like Ethereum, Litecoin, Tether, Solana, Dogecoin, etc etc ). So…
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WULF is choppy on a day to day basis, but it was up 21% last week, and doesn’t it look like it has much higher to go in 2024? I’ve been regularly pointing this one out since it released earnings close to $1 area. Huge volume is streaming in now. Could this really run from $1 to the teens? Yes, I think that it can over 2024. So far we are up 100%.
HIVE bounced right off of the 10 week ma as it back tested the base. Then last week it surged up 40% with a strong spike in volume.
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HUT WAS POINTED OUT ON DEC 18 AS A LAGGER POPPING FROM THE BASE…
HUT shot up 41% after lagging at the lows of the base, so you can see why these will become a strong buy after a good drop into the next ICL.
