Thursday December 28th

SPX – Another new high on day 41 with fairly light volume and pretty strong divergence on the RSI. We are seeing that phenomenon play out, but with this cycle count, we should expect a dip into a dcl to start at any time. If the Santa Rally continues this week, we would likely start that dip with next weeks trading to start off 2023.

WTIC – Oil broke out on Tuesday but then yesterday it dropped 2%. Just a back test to the 20 ema and downtrend line? I think it is, but we’ll see on Thursday.

 

THE USD dropped again, and this is helping Gold to rise back up toward the highs.  In the bigger picture I am watching to see if The USD can break below the July lows. That would be very helpful for Gold in the bigger picture.

 

GOLD is floating back up toward those break out highs. As it does so, GDX has made a new daily and intermediate cycle highs. Gold still looks good at this point in the 3rd daily cycle.

GOLD is actually still hanging right at the all-time highs. This is very interesting price action since it is only day 9 of the 3rd daily cycle, so Gold can possibly meander all the way back up to the most recent highs and Miners can continue to benefit.

GDX is making 5 month highs here and it has a series of higher lows and higher highs out of the ICL, so that is bullish. The next target would be that 35area, but the yellow area should be a resistance area and it may or may not get to 35 in this intermediate cycle. GDX may stall and get choppy in early 2024.

 

.

So far everything remains bullish as we see the light volume rise during the last trading days of 2024. Have a great day everyone!

.

~ALEX

.

YESTERDAY I DREW THIS CYCLE COUNT FOR BITCOIN: It was day 43 and I said that I have seen daily cycles run up late and pull back into that day 60 area, so I drew this as an example.

 

.

Big Picture Bitcoin in the weekend report: Running out of that base, Bitcoin had the green box running correction and then a slight pause before ramping straight up. The odd thing is that we are still seeing similarities to that run in 2020, so I keep asking myself: Is the run up to the ETF decision going to make that 2020 halving run right now, and then after an ICL dip in 2024, will we then see a 2nd run for the halving period? I am starting to think that this might be the case. If so, this could be a  HUGE year for Bitcoin ( & crypto currencies like Ethereum, Litecoin, Tether, Solana, Dogecoin, etc etc ). So…

Bitcoin: So this would be day 44 today and that consolidation pattern continues. Crypto related stocks have done SO ridiculously well, that this doesn’t even have to break out to $48,000 for us to be making big gains. In fact, some really look very extended and I have a hard time seeing how some won’t just chop sideways or lower even if Bitcoin does get to $48-52,000.   Let’s briefly take a look…

LMFA was a lagger until basically this week and now…

 

Notice how LMFA did not enjoy the crypto run, even into December.

LMFA then rant from 36 cents to almost $1 in just the last 4 days.  WOW! So at times the ‘Laggers’ really take off. Recently I had recommended HUT, BTBT, WULF, EBON, SOS, SDIG, GREE, and others as Laggers and they are exploding. THE QUESTION IS: CAN THESE …

.

THE QUESTION IS: CAN THESE KEEP GOING IF BITCOIN RUNS FOR ANOTHER 2 weeks?  That remains to be seen.

.

WULF is taking off and it was up 43% for the day if you include after hrs trading. This one is extended, but probably not so overextended that it can’t run to that former high around $4.  Congratulations to all that bought this over the past several weeks that I had it in the reports!

 

GREE was pointed out as a lagger 3 days ago and now it has joined the race. I grabbed this chart an hour into trading and it was already up 23%after being up 15% and 11% on the days that it was leaving that base.

.

ARE THERE STILL LAGGERS?

.

I ACTUALLY THINK THAT RIOT COULD AND SHOULD DO BETTER. It is not overly extended, and it used to run with Mara, and we all saw what MARA did!

.

XNET is a lagger.  There is no guarantee that it will run, but it has in the past. Right now it started breaking above the 50 and 200sma. This used to run with a ‘Crypto Rally’, so I took just a small position simply so that I can monitor it all day. If it suddenly POPS or starts running with volume intraday, I can find a way to add.

.

XNET This is the very long term view and you can see what it did with that 2020 rally. This is a large base.

.

NCTY was already pointed out in November, but I never bought it with 25,000- 40,000 volume days. It has done reverse splits so it rallied nicely from $3 to $10. Well, it has been chopping sideways and is not overbought or overextended, so can this run? I think that it can, especially since I am now seeing larger volume columns.

.

So we do have some that may still be slightly lagging, as seen above.  Others are running, but even though they’re up 10-20%, they can still run based on the other rockets like LMFA, MARA, IREN, etc. But now back to the question about those red hot runners like MARA!  Wow, what a beauty, huh? We bought this at $8, $10, and that last dip to $14, but The question is, can these continue to run even higher if Bitcoin breaks out to $48,000?

.

The question is, can these continue to run even higher if Bitcoin breaks out to $48,000?  It is very hard to imagine, but I guess that as long as buyers willingly pile in, it could. It really seems to me that at some point they would consolidate and flag or form a wedge, but once Bitcoin decides that the run is over ( maybe the ETF news), I think that these will quickly start to lose their gains and pull back, but we will be looking for the next low or ICL. THAT WILL BE A GREAT BUY, so stay tuned and try to remember these rallies.

.

You might see something like this:

.

Mara runs to this $30 or even $40 area, then works its way back to below $20, and starts to run again. I personally want to harvest my gains along the way and be ready to buy big at the next ICL.  I will discuss this as time goes on.