Friday December 8th
Todays data can move the markets. Yesterdays jobs report actually caused the markets to push higher, despite a bearish engulfing candle on Wednesday, so we’ll see if this one causes some selling to take over.
The SPX is on day 30 and this has been a very strong first daily cycle. We will look forward to buying that dip. I would say that DCLs can come at 35 days to 45 days, but we have seen 50 day cycles in 2023.
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YESTERDAY OIL STALLED AND DIDN’T REALLY MOVE, SO I’LL JUST REPEAT WHAT I SAID I EXPECT FOR OIL IN YESTERDAYS REPORT, except that we are on day 43 now.
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The cycle count for Oil is 40-50 days, or even a little more, most of the time.
– We had a normal 50 day daily cycle.
– Then the peak at day 25 and the drop into day 31 looked like a dcl, because it rallied above the 10sma up to day 10 high.
– IF SO, We then dropped into day 29 and THAT looked like a dcl, because it closed over the 10sma, but when it rolled over, I had to decide if I should keep that count going. So now you see the day 38 spike instead of calling it day 9. If it was day 9, we would have 3 more weeks of selling! Instead, I’m trying to view the day 29 low as just a drop to the trend line (not an early dcl) and continuation to currently day 42. I hope that makes sense as explained on this chart.
THE USD did a shake out at the 200sma and recovered, leaving a dcl behind. Breaking that downtrend and seeing a MACD cross does concern me, because it is a sign of strength that I just wouldn’t expect on a 4th daily cycle. A break above the 50sma would tell me that we just put in a higher ICL.
GOLD -That is the 13 sma that Gold has found support at. Notice that Gold found support there on the first daily cycle too, and then it dropped into a dcl at the 50sma. I started to notice other similarities, so I will draw that for you and it would help Gold remain bullish if it played out similar to the first daily cycle…
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GOLD –
1. Gold peaked on day 15 and it peaked on day 15 now too.
2. After finding support at the 13 sma, it sold off into a dcl. It may do that here too.
3. If Gold can bottom above the last dcl and bottom before day 31 again, I will be a buyer. If not, I may just buy and sell sooner than later.
GOLD would become short term BEARISH if we break below the last dcl. That means that the highs will not be taken out, but instead we are creating the consolidation pattern.
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YESTERDAY, BECAUSE I AM SEEING THE MINERS HOLD UP WELL, I ASKED:
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Is this remotely possible for GOLD? I cannot rule it out completely, and this would be awesome, because it would mean that Gold is extremely right translated and extremely strong and would be dipping into a dcl that would only be starting the 2nd daily cycle. I HAVE TO SAY that this is NOT the most likely scenario, because a 45 day daily cycle in Gold is rare. It may have never happened, I can’t recall, but it is something that we can watch for. The chart ABOVE is the more likely scenario currently. I drew this one because of the way Miners are acting. I’ll discuss that.
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SILVER dropped sharply, so I’d like to see a bounce and then a drop into a higher low here too. This would be bullish.
SILVER – This would be the bearish view, breaking that last dcl.
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SILVER chopping along the downtrend that was broken is also a bullish view in technical analysis. It would also serve to keep price above the 50 & 200sma.
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GDX broke below the 200sma yesterday, but it bounced at support and recovered. This is day 18 and I honestly like what the miners are doing so far. A drop to the 50sma is not damaging at all.
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AGAIN, WHEN I LOOK AT SEVERAL MINERS, THEY STILL LOOK BULLISH.
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RGLD broke out above the 200sma and is crawling along the top of it. It is still up almost 20% off of the lows of the base.
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Do you remember NGD?
This was when I recommended NGD, because they had released good earnings on Oct 25th and price was starting to break out higher above that 200sma.
NGD ran to $1.52, pulled back to the 13sma, and started climbing again yesterday. It closed near the highs again, so I love what I am seeing there.
BADEF – This was the one that got away from me, when I tried to buy it a couple of times around $0.60 and it left me behind. It was climbing that 10sma, so what is it doing now?
BADEF finally started to consolidate, and it dropped to the 34 sma. Yesterday it was up 20% at one point, so again, Silver has been selling off and some of the Silver Miners are ignoring that.
KGC is actually flagging and is still trading at the highs. This is where I sold mine, so if it broke out and started running, my selling after that exhaustion candle in Gold would prove to be premature.
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So we still have bullish looking set ups in the General Markets and Precious Metals. I am doing some trading during the day, but I am also trying to patiently wait for a pullback into a dcl in both areas to buy that dip. I’ll be discussing this and more in the weekend report. I want to also emphasize that Crypto and the Miners remain very bullish and even though they get choppy, I expect big things in 2024. We will get a dcl over time, but we also could get an ICL dip between now and the really big ramp up that I am expecting, so that will also offer a final opportunity to get in near some lows and make some really big gains. This will be discussed in the weekend report. I should be releasing that on Sunday, since on Saturday I have a lot of work to do and then dinner with my family.
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Thanks for being here and enjoy your Friday trading & Weekend!
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~ALEX
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I just wanted to show this set up on a couple of the Solar Stocks again. Now that they both broke out above the 50sma and are crawling along it, it is low risk with a stop under the 50sma.
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CSIQ – This is a small base and price broke above the 50sma and it is crawling along above it. Earnings release was on that large reversal candle at the lows, and it has churned sideways and broke out after that. It should be a low risk, higher chance of reward if it starts to run higher.
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SPWR – This is a very similar set up and they also released earnings at the lows. It was $4 when they released earninsg and now it is $5, so hopefully it just keeps climbing.
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TSLA is a nice set up actually, the ONLY drawback is that I am expecting a dcl in the general markets soon. I like that it is above the 50sma and an uptrend line. It may break out and then simply back test at the dcl dip.
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TWST was pointed out as a bullish consolidation after a strong run up out of the lows. It is now breaking out.
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BYND – I recommended BYND as a similar base that we see with SPWR & CSIQ. It broke out and ran roughly from $6 to $10 very quickly, so I’d buy this dip if we get one. Again, this is similar to SPWR and CSIQ patterns.
