Fed Wednesday December 13
Today is the Fed Mtg and it is highly believed that with the recent data the Fed will not raise rates, but it is also too soon to cut rates. That said, you would think that it should just be a day like any other day. That NEVER seems to happen. We aways have volatility, especially during his speech from 2:30 -3 p.m., so just be mentally prepared for some false moves and gyrations. Let’s look at or charts…
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SPX – Can you believe these General Markets? We are on day 31 and we are at THE HIGHS coming out of that ICL. This has been very strong and held the 13 sma all the way up.
THE NASDAQ broke to a new 2023 high after a multiday / week consolidation.
THE NASDAQ has now tagged the March 2022 highs. We really should get some kind of a dip down into a dcl soon, and then I would expect a run to the 2021 highs, but is it possible to just continue rallying? Well, we are now in the last couple of weeks of the year and that ‘Santa Clause ‘ year end rally could keep things running, maybe after just a very small dip into a dcl.
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NVDA sold off after earnings, but it is finding support at the 50sma and back testing a trend line, so I consider this a ‘buy and hold’ with a stop entry. What about the dcl? You could wait, but again, a Santa Clause rally that keeps these markets running could have you waiting for a long time.
AMD was a buy and in the reports at the ICL. It looks like it put in a dcl, but that could be a 1/2 cycle dip. Either way, I didn’t buy AMD and I wish I did buy and hold this one. I was focused mostly on Crypto & Precious Metals Miners, but I hope that some readers here did buy AMD.
LABU has been a buy for a while and even though it dipped, it reversed at the 13 sma (not shown). Many Biotech stocks have been bullish.
THE USD is on day 10 out of a dcl, that very likely could also be a higher ICL. We’ll see what happens with the Fed, but here is what may be some good news?…
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THE USD: We had the last 2 Fed Mtgs on Nov 1st and September 20. After Nov 1st, the USD crashed fairly sharply. After September 20, it continued higher. I guess it was a mixed bag, but Nov 1st was when the ‘No more rate hikes’ started to really get obvious. Hopefully we get the same reaction.
I would say that this is semi-bad news for Gold, unless we rally and get a dcl in 10-15 days from now.
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1. GOLD is only on day 20 and that is too early for a dcl lately, so will this fall further?
2. What would be good here? Maybe we get a bounce for 2 weeks, and a tag of the 50sma later as a dcl?
3. I mentioned this before: WHAT IF this turns out to be all one very long first daily cycle? Well, it would be 46 days long, and I can’t recall ever seeing one that long, but if the USD sells off, maybe all of that Fed Manipulation with FAST SHARP Rate hikes and now possible cuts is causing a stretch here? A quick tag of the 50sma and then higher please.
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That would be fine, however…
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UH-OH– 🙁
I did look at September 20 FOMC and NOV 1st FOMC, and Gold did sell off each time for 6+ days. Being on day 20 right now gives Gold time to drop, so that may not be a favorable observation in my honest analysis.
SILVER has been selling off rather relentlessly, so maybe it CAN get a bounce? A relief rally after the Fed Decision? It is quite oversold, but these can stay oversold, so we’ll see.
GDX had a short first daily cycle at 28 days, and now we are at day 20. Again, like I said with Gold : WHAT IF this turns out to be all one very long first daily cycle? Well, it would be 48 days long, and I can’t recall ever seeing one that long, but if the USD sells off, maybe all of that Fed Manipulation with FAST SHARP Rate hikes and now possible cuts is causing a stretch here? We just have to watch it.
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Well, today is a Fed Day and they are always volatile, indecisive, and interesting from 2-4 p.m., so be positioned in a way that you can handle any shakiness. A dip in the General Markets into a dcl when it comes will be a ‘buy the dip’ opportunity. Enjoy your Wednesday trading.
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN: So this is the current set up with a dip at day 27 and ALMOST a new low on day 29. I look for dips at roughly days 30 & 60, so this wasn’t unexpected, but will it now run to my next possible target at $48,000? Or will we just get into a longer consolidation again, like we saw after other strong runs? It is hard to say, but I did look back at the last 2 FOMC Mtgs for Bitcoin too. In September it slowly dropped or chopped for a few days, and after Nov 1st it was on day 52 and could have pulled back, but it ran higher instead. It then peaked on day 59 and rolled over into the dcl at day 64, so the Fed days didn’t really hurt Bitcoin in September and we continued higher in November. We’ll see what happens at day 30 , a Fed Wednesday.
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BITCOIN: One thing that I can’t help but to notice is that after every Rally we saw some sort of a choppiness and consolidation. The last one was an upward sloping one, which was great as a sign of strength, but the point is that after each rally, Bitcoin often does get choppy, so we might see some more choppiness.
AND YESTERDAY I WROTE THIS:
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So with the above charts of a couple of Crypto Miners, I’ll just say this:
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BITCOIN could have a 1/2 cycle low in place now before the Fed Mtg, and therefore it may do what we see here, just starting to run higher from this low, or…
BITCOIN has been very choppy, hasn’t it? So it could still bounce and drop into day 30 around Fed Wednesday, because it has been choppy on this entire run. So knowing that, be positioned in a way that you are comfortable. Start small? Add small to current positions? Etc.
