December 14th Post Fed Runners
Do you remember when I asked if it really matters what the Fed says, because everyone already knew that he wasn’t going to raise rates and would likely cut next year? WELL IT DID MATTER! We had an explosion higher in all areas of the markets and instead of the normal volatility up, then down, then up, then down – we had a straight up move that lasted into the close.
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THE SPX DAY 32! The SPX was up 63 points and has a solid breakout from a consolidation pattern. We are still going to be due for a dcl at any time, so we’ll see how this plays out, but again, this will be a buy the dip pull back! Money could just keep flooding in for a few more days and push this higher, but with a dcl coming due, how might this dip?
THE SPX Take a look at the orange arrow. That was also a strong burst higher after a long run, and that is how a market can surge, and yet then pull back too. So we should eventually see that dip into a dcl, and that is a great buying opportunity coming up!
WTIC – Oil is due for a low, it is at the prior lows, and we see a reversal candle, but this will not become a dcl until it gets above the 10sma for starters and then above the downtrend for further confirmation.
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YESTERDAY I SHOWED YOU WHAT HAPPENED WITH THE LAST FED MTG: No rate hike took place and the USD sold off. I mentioned yesterday that…
“Nov 1st was when the ‘No more rate hikes’ started to really get obvious. Hopefully we get the same reaction.”
This is a live shot of the USD ( I don’t know why it says Dec 14 11 a.m.). It is 6 am and the USD is already breaking below the dcl, so we should have that drop into the 3 yr cycle low ahead! This should really help Gold.
And again, THIS is the USD 3 yr cycle low expectations that I posted on Nov 17th. A drop like this really should help Gold, Silver, Miners, as well as possibly Bitcoin and the General Markets.
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Stock charts doesn’t show GOLD accurately, so I grabbed the chart of its representative GLD. With the Fed decision and the speech discussing inflation becoming tamer and rate hikes likely done for now, we have a strong burst higher. Is that an early dcl or one long daily cycle of 47 days? It really doesn’t matter, either way this is very bullish and remains right translated as a 47 day first daily cycle or a short day 22 dcl with a day 15 peak.
In technical Analysis, this is just a beautiful chart of GOLD surging higher after the Fed Decision. If this holds for 2 days or increases for 2 days, the weekly chart will still look very bullish.
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YESTERDAY I DISCUSSED THAT NON-STOP SELLING IN SILVER: I said that Silver has been selling off rather relentlessly, so maybe it CAN get a bounce? A relief rally after the Fed Decision? It is quite oversold, but these can stay oversold, so we’ll see.
Silver (SLV here) surged too and we have higher lows here too, even after that relentless selling that we saw all week. This was a 7 or 8 day sell off that was followed by a very bullish strong reversal candle. Silver stocks did NOT sell off with Silver, and that was being pointed out over the past few days. This obviously made Silver stocks and Gold Miners a buy.
GDX also dropped down to tag the 50sma and surged with the Fed Decision. GDX closed at the highs as people piled into Miners. Many Miners were up big.
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I posted this at the end of the day, so you could look up some charts and see how the Miners reacted.
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AG shot up 6% right after the Fed Mtg, so I posted this and mentioned some of the others. We saw buying after that Fed Decision that lasted right through his speech.
AG closed up almost 12%, so even if you bought it up 6%, you still tacked on another 6%. Ag bottomed in November and now has a higher low, it remains a buy and hold now.
GORO was up 20% and to be honest, this is probably just getting going, since it crashed with earnings and based out for a month.
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KGC has been one of the stronger ones and I have had it in most of the reports along with HMY, EGO, NGD, etc as strong leaders after earnings. It is already back at the highs, so KGC has been a real winner and will likely continue to perform well. These continue to be fine as BUY & HOLD.
I have discussed Gold Royalty companies like RGLD as finally getting up off of the lows. Here we see bullish reversal after back testing the base. Isn’t it amazing how these patterns form? This was the breakout from a base and a back test. That is an obvious place to add in Technical Analysis.
MTA is also a royalty and streaming company coming out of the lows. I love the way this based out, broke out and back tested too. This is a nice set up and a buy and hold too. SAND is also another one.
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HL has a double bottom low and it broke out and back tested that area as silver sold off relentlessly. It was up 8% yesterday and is a buy too.
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EXK is a double bottom at the lows. I actually pointed EXK out as Silver was selling off for 7 days. I questioned why it looked bullish and is NOT selling off with Silver. This is EXK popping 9% higher yesterday, but it is still at the lows and can be bought as a lagger with a stop under yesterdays lows.
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NG crashed on Tuesday and surged on Fed day, making a rare Railroad Tracks pattern. These almost always mark the lows, so I would expect Nova Gold to continue higher.
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What can I say? The Fed Decision and the following speech said exactly what the markets wanted to hear: Inflation has been controlled by the rate hikes and now they are no longer needed, but we could see the Fed CUT rates in 2024. In fact, he basically said that they should not wait until inflation reaches their target point of 2% inflation to cut rates, but that they should cut sooner than that. At that point, there was no looking back, buyers continued to flood in and many prices closed at the highs. Yes, we could see some profit taking and pull backs along the way, but at this point it looks like the Bulls have remained in control. I want to discuss Bitcoin below too, enjoy your Thursday Post Fed trading! 🙂
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN – I have been showing the count for Bitcoin and mentioned that I look for dips at 30 & 60 day intervals ROUGHLY. Our day 27 could have been the low and I drew that in a chart- that bitcoin might just move higher from there, and so far it has. Bitcoin had a Fed Pop too. So…
I mentioned that these Crypto Stocks were a BUY & HOLD BASKET weeks ago. I also said that it would NOT be easy, because they do drop sharply at times, but they are in a bull run.
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WULF – I was watching these midday before the Fed and they were acting bullish. I posted this chart from Midday to show a gap fill and a drop & reversal at the 20ema. It is a low risk buy, but these are hard to buy, since they move quickly (even intraday). WULF closed up 17% in after hrs.
IREN popped post Fed, and this was after his speech at 3:13. This could be a consolidation box that becomes a mid-point area to the move. That would project almost another 80% move or so in Iren. Having this in your basket from the $3 base area is paying off fast (but it is a very choppy difficult ride too).
MARA has also been having a nice run. This was recommended in the base and again after their earnings report down near $9. It has almost made a 100% run since then. Has it been an easy ride? No, not when it drops from almost $17 to $14. If you owned 1000 shares, that would be a $3/ share loss. or $3000, but it gained it back quickly.
Doesn’t RIOT look like a bullish Bull Flag? That could be the midpoint run too. I do think that these will go MUCH higher in 2024, but for now they are also making excellent gains. At the last halving year of 2020, MARA and RIOT both traded north of $75 and they can go right back up there over time.
BTBT crashed 2 days ago, but with this reversal it looks ready to try to run again. a drop to the 20 ema seems common in this sector.
I had BYND in the reports with that base. So far, this has been an excellent buy & hold.
I always mention CVNA, AI , AMD, and other tech stocks that I trade on pull backs. CVNA was red before the Fed, and it closed up 14%. I also like AI and the ticker ‘AI” along with SOUN, BBAI, and a few others look bullish too.
BYON – A base, a run, a small crawl along the 200sma, and a fed pop. This stock is also climbing bullishly higher and can be a buy and hold too.
