Weekend report November 18th
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SPX WEEKLY– We have our ICL in place, this is week 3 out of the lows, and the downtrend has been broken. The General Markets should be bullishly biased for weeks, and I would expect it to get back up the all-time highs.
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The same goes for The NASDAQ WEEKLY
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IWM WEEKLY – The IWM is different in that it has NOT made all-time highs in 2023, and it has been stuck in a long consolidation. Will it run to the highs of that consolidation and break out(?), or just run to the top of the trading range and then stop again? We’ll have to wait and see, but I am seeing some strong moves out of the lows with many Clean Energy and EV Stocks. For example…
HYZN, ARVL, GOEV, etc were up a lot in just this week. HYZN was up over 67% (sorry for the typo on the chart)…
ARVL was up about 23% and yest these have so much more upside possibility, so this sector may be worth watching going forward, since many are still at the lows.
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FCEL was up almost 20%, and again, look at the upside potential if these start to run again.
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WTIC DAILY NOV 13 – This week we were watching Oil drop into a dcl and the cycle count for Oil (often over 50 days long) was at day 54 when it bounced. That could’ve made this day 3 of a new daily cycle or it may have been a bear flag. Well, it did end up being rejected near the 200sma & under the 10sma, so…
We now reversed with a day 60 low.
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WTIC – Since Oil seems to have 5 waves down now with the recent sell off, that Friday reversal may be completing that drop into a dcl. I think that a recovery of the 200sma which also breaks the blue downtrend line would be a safer buy if someone wanted to go long, but buying Fridays reversal with a stop at the day 60 low is another option.
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USD DAILY failed and has now been dropping lower into a dcl. A bounce at the 200sma area may be the next dcl, but take a look at the sell off on the left of the chart. It is possible that this may just chop lower and lower like it did then, because it should be dropping into that 3 yr cycle low that I have mentioned repeatedly over the past year. Let’s look at a chart of that 3 yr cycle low again…
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USD 3 YR CYCLE LOWS – As you can see here, that drop int0 a 3 yr cycle low has been very reliable (except for 2014-2018 which was 4 yrs for some reason), so I started to mention this drop over a year ago when the USD was actually rising into its ‘peak’. This could be a catalyst for Gold to break out to new all-time highs. I drew in a blue line to show a possible path for the USD from now and into 2024. Note: The weekly stochastics is still currently more overbought than oversold too. As the USD drops, Gold should Pop.
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NOV 10th GOLD WEEKLY– Last week Gold dropped sharply and I pointed out that we were due for a daily cycle low and in the past I have seen that these sharp 1 week drops did not always have follow through. They were followed by reversals. So with that thought, I drew a ‘T’ reversal, to show that Gold could actually bottom and reverse this week.
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GOLD WEEKLY– Gold did more than a just “T-Reversal low” last week! Gold reversed quickly and actually ran back up to the top of last weeks large drop, so Gold has now simply back tested the breakout of the downtrend and bounced back already. That is also bullish as it gave us a dcl on the 10 week ma. The RSI is also a bullish weekly reading of 54.69
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GOLD WEEKLY – The big picture set up remains bullish for a breakout to all-time highs.
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SILVER WEEKLY – We got our ICL in early October and then Silver dipped into a dcl here too. Silver dipped red, but then it surged up over 7%, giving us a large bullish push higher. Look at the weekly MACD. For the first time since May it seems ready to cross upward again.
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SAME CAHRT: It looks like it wants to break out as soon as next week if this remains bullish on our shortened holiday week of trading. Volume was strong with last weeks 7% surge higher too. Let me show you something else about this breakout higher…
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SILVER DAILY – Stepping back we can see that Silver actually lost the uptrend and ran a lot of ‘stops’ with the OCTOBER drop into an ICL. It has now recovered that uptrend line with last weeks surge. A break higher from here also breaks the orange 7 month downtrend. The set up for Silver is bullish and I have been pointing out Bullish set ups out of the lows in many Silver Miners during the midweek reports.
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GDX looks quite similar to the choppy move out of the ICL last year in October 2022.
After a choppy first daily cycle kept price near the lows, the 2nd & 3rd daily cycle produced a nice rally higher. Right now we have a very similar set up that has formed a bullish inverse H&S pattern too. The next move would be the bullish rally higher, starting with next weeks’ shortened holiday week or the following week.
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Back in October we were due for a dip and I mentioned that this could be wave 1 of 5 as Gold attempts to break to new all-time highs. I drew this when GDX was at $30 area and…
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THE GDX WEEKLY CHART shows us that the first daily cycle should have completed the 1-2 of that 5 wave rally. It also did this as a breakout and back test of the magenta downtrend. This next run would be a strong wave 3 rally as the USD drops lower over time.
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We have some very nice bullish set ups in the report today, with both the General Market sectors and The Precious Metals Sectors. Next week is a shortened holiday week in the US markets, though. Sometimes that can actually lead to a bullish move higher, since many professional traders and fund managers may take the week off or at least leave early for travel purposes. We’ll see soon enough, but if you are holding a basket of Miners, the 2nd daily cycle (or wave 3 of 5) should be a rewarding ride higher as Gold moves up to attempt that break out to all-time highs.
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Enjoy your weekend!
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~ALEX
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BITCOIN WEEKLY – Bitcoin has had a strong rally ( the Crypto Miners have been bottoming instead of rallying). With Bitcoin in an area of resistance, it is possible that it will now start to pull back. I would love to see a healthy pullback from here where the Crypto Miners now resist the selling and continue to base out. If that happens, they may finally be ready to Join Bitcoin in the next strong rally out of the next lows.
