Tuesday November 28th
We really do not have much to say in the way of changes since the weekend report. Nothing has changed and the set ups are bullish, but as time moves forward, we do get closer and closer to a time when we would expect a dip or a pullback into the next dcl. For the General Markets we could be close to that time, for the Precious Metals it would not seem as likely, so let’s take a look.
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The SPX is on day 20 and these daily cycles can run 35-40 or more days, but since this run was practically straight up, it may need more of a rest or even begin to dip down toward the next dcl.
1. So first – this CAN keep running and break to new highs, and they often follow the 8 ema, however
2. What would a dip into the next dcl look like if it started now?
SPX – A dip that started now could drop all the way down to back test the day 12 breakout and the 50sma as shown. The markets have been strong so I almost don’t expect this scenario, but I just wanted to mention it since it is a valid possibility.
WTIC – Oil continues to try to bottom out here. It is trapped under the 200sma.
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The USD is rolling over and has found a little temporary support at the 200sma. It has become very difficult to mark the most recent DCL, because The USD put in 2 very long first daily cycles and then it just chopped and popped sideways in that topping process. I would say that basically, we are expecting more choppiness and further downside over time. Obviously dcls can form and cause a bit more of a pop for a few days, and that may be one in early November that bounced for 4 days.
GOLD is targeting that $2077 all-time high and this is only day 11 of the 2nd daily cycle. I took a wider view because I wanted to you to see how in past rallies, Gold chopped and moved slowly and then suddenly Surged. That can happen here too, so I have been thinking that in this second daily cycle Gold can reach those prior highs.
SILVER has broken a downtrend and pushed higher yesterday in this 2nd daily cycle. This was a live capture at 6 a.m., so that small red candle is today (so far). Silver is also on day 11 and can continue higher. I have mentioned that I do like the set ups now on HL, AG, CDE, GATO, and other silver stocks. If silver continues to run higher, I would expect those to do the same.
GDX did a bit of a pop and then formed a doji, but it also broke a small downtrend with yesterdays gap open. We do have the 200sma overhead, so I would expect to see price up there soon. We have chopped sideways so it could simply burst right through it, or it may also churn sideways and build energy for a breakout. The set up is Bullish, but this chop will put some people to sleep. 🙂
AU had a solid run out of the ICL, but then it ran into some trouble. After the dcl, it reversed higher at the 50sma and then lost it. I didn’t bother to read about it to see what may have caused it, but it has now recovered and you could buy this with a stop at the 50sma area if you wanted it in your basket. I say this because…
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I say this because AU (Anglogold Ashanti) has been known to really run strongly once it catches fire. It was trading at $30 earlier this year when it ran from $12 to $30 out of the Oct 2022 ICL. This recent drop looks like a back test.
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DNCVF – Defiance Silver has been dead in the water, until yesterday. This is a smaller company that I used to put in my basket, but I skipped it this year, because the volume was only 10,000 – 20,000 on many days and for 6 cent stock, that is not great.
GROY has been slowly climbing higher and popped another 8% by midday yesterday, so I wanted to point it out as one that is finally joining the race.
SNWGF: I had this in Fridays report as one of those junior / explorer companies, and I mentioned that it was churning to attempt to break out about the 50sma. I captured this at 11:30 am, and SNWGF DID close above that 50sma. This is a great set up.
SVM has been a laggard too, but it is worth taking a look at as a potential buy, maybe a small starter position in a basket of miners? SVM climbed up above the 50sma and then churned sideways before giving us a nice 6% pop yesterday. The RSI & MACD have become steeper to the upside.
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Nothing has really changed, we are just a day older in the cycle counts, but that is not a big deal at this point. I also wanted to mention that Bitcoin dropped yesterday, but many crypto stocks like IREN, MARA, CLSK, RIOT, and so on dropped and then recovered. That is a good sign. Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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IREN – Several Crypto Miners dropped and tried to recover with Bitcoin down. I have mentioned recently that for some, this may be time to build a small basket, but they can be quite choppy. IREN had good earnings last week and started to run higher. It might be at resistance here, so if it churns sideways to build some steam, it could become another buy point.
